Swap Meet
The Philadelphia 76ers success has dimmed the luster of their 2017 NBA Draft. It’s a double edged sword in the NBA. Lose games, and win the lottery for future talent. Win games, and lose the lottery for future talent.
So let’s see how this works in the current ranking of the NBA today, the morning of January 20th, 2017. The Philadelphia 76ers are ranked 24th in the NBA. And just 1.5 games ahead are the Sacramento Kings.
A Royal Pain
At 24th, the Philadelphia 76ers have just a 15 percent chance of landing one of the top three prospects in the 2017 NBA Draft. The team odds are greater to land the seventh pick (59.9%), the eighth pick (23.2%) or ninth pick (1.85%). In the “no swap world”, that’s the end of it.
But now, let’s consider the swap rights of the Kings first round pick in 2017. At 22nd, the Kings have a 6.1 percent chance of landing one of the top three picks. However, if they do, the Philadelphia 76ers will likely enforce their swap rights, and that pick will slide to the 76ers. So the probability of the 76ers getting a top three pick just went up from 15 to 21.1 percent.
Now imagine a slide of the Kings from 22 to 27th rank by seasons end. Meanwhile, let’s just imagine the 76ers land in the playoffs. If the Kings fall to 27, they have a 27.8 percent chance for a top three pick, and can do no worse than the seventh pick of the draft. If the 76ers land in the playoffs, they won’t get a lottery pick.
Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers are insured for success.