The Sixer Sense
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Philadelphia 76ers Will Exceed 30 Wins Before End of March

Jan 11, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard T.J. McConnell (1) leaps in the air in celebration of hitting the game winning after hitting the game shot against the New York Knicks at Wells Fargo Center. The Philadelphia 76ers won 98-97. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 11, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard T.J. McConnell (1) leaps in the air in celebration of hitting the game winning after hitting the game shot against the New York Knicks at Wells Fargo Center. The Philadelphia 76ers won 98-97. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The recent surge by the Philadelphia 76ers has them the talk of the NBA. Fans of the team and the whole NBA wonder — Can the success last?

The Projections

The Philadelphia 76ers just passed the halfway point of the Regular season with a record of 17-28. Five Thirty Eight does a phenomenal job of projecting NBA’s team and player projections. It utilizes a very aptly named system called CARMELO. I could go about describing its intricacies but I will yield to the Five Thirty Eight site itself. Sufficient to say, its pretty comprehensive.

I looked at the Philadelphia 76ers win projections throughout the year. At the start of the season, projections held the Sixers with an overall record of 28-54. As recent as January 4th, the site predicted the Sixers would win 23 games or 23 more #raisethecat tweetstorms. (h/t to CSNPhilly)

Given the spectacular play of Joel Embiid and late heroics from Robert Covington and T.J. McConnell, (not to mention two spectacular team wins without “The Process” on Tuesday and Wednesday) Five Thirty Eight jumped the projection for the surging Sixers up 31.

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Although many will argue momentum itself is not indicative to future success, it’s hard to look at 10 wins in 13 games and not think the Sixers can exceed Nate Silver’s odds sooner than the end of the season.  So can the Sixers top 30 wins before the last contest on April 12th against the Knicks?

The Predictions

My answer is not a modest one. The past two performances by The Philadelphia 76ers and the past 30 days of the season have truly altered my most optimistic expectations for the young team. To give evidence of this, I will disclose that I originally thought win 31 would come on game 81 on April 7th.  This was before beating the Clippers and Milwaukee on back to back nights without Joel. I thought after the loss against Atlanta, the Sixers would lose another 3 in a row.

Now, there are alot of variables in play that need to keep the Sixers play at the level they have shown in the month of January. But if the Sixers’ stellar defensive net rating holds, I think the team has proven to everyone that the Sixers could be a .500 team or better for the rest of the season placing them at 36-45.

The team could end up raising the felines a few more times on top of that. If the Sixers achieve that feat, then playoffs are truly in play in the struggling Eastern Conference. 36 wins is where the Sixers end up in my opinion, but I also predict that they win their 31st game on March 24th against Chicago. Thus, how do the Sixers do that?

Defeat the Middling Eastern Conference

The Sixers need to consistently beat all of its inferior or equal opponents, but compete with superior ones. During the next 11 game before the All-Star Break, the Sixers need 6 wins against the beatable teams (Chicago, Miami x 2, Sacramento, Dallas, and Orlando).

Holding serve against the league’s middle class eases pressure to get up for the 2 San Antonio games and 3 other games against playoff teams (Washington, Charlotte and Boston) that are upcoming.

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Competing against the top tier teams has been one of the biggest surprises in this latest stretch of games. The Sixers have won games against 3 playoff teams and won an inordinate number of close games. To assume this trend will not regress a slightly, would be folly.

Fight Through Tough Schedule after All-Star Break

The next 13 games after the break bring 3 sets of back to backs and a formidable road trip. The West Coast swing features Golden State, Portland (more formidable at home), and the Clippers. But I believe the 76ers will persevere with the possible addition of Ben Simmons to the lineup and win 7 games over the Knicks 2 times, Miami, Milwaukee, the Lakers, Dallas and Orlando again. This leaves a 3 game stretch of Chicago, Indianapolis and Brooklyn to top 30 wins.

Given the Enes Kanter injury, the Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on March 22nd seems much more winnable. But if the Sixers wstumble once or twice, this is a potential win to add to the hopper. Topping 30 wins would be the first time the Sixers pass this mark since 2012-2013. As everyone unfortunately remembers, this was the last year of the Doug Collins Era.

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In the 2012-2013 season, the Sixers went 34-48. It would be incredibly satisfying for all Sixer fans but especially Trusters of the Process to see Joel Embiid and hopefully Ben Simmons leave that Sixers team in the dust.