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Can Joel Embiid win the Rookie of the Year Award over Dario Saric?

By Mike O'connor

Oct 26, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) stands for the national anthem prior to action against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 26, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) stands for the national anthem prior to action against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
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Is Joel Embiid‘s minutes disparity enough to keep him from winning the Rookie of the Year award?

Joel Embiid is an unprecedented NBA player. A 7-foot-2 behemoth with ballerina feet, an incomparable collection of skills, and vibrant personality have yielded him the affectionate classification as a “unicorn.”

Unfortunately for Philadelphia 76ers fans, equally as unprecedented as Embiid himself would be the idea of Joel receiving the Rookie of the Year Award this May.

Assuming Embiid’s return to full health and normal playing schedule following the All-Star break, he will have the chance to play 22 more games this season, excluding his mandatory rest days. With Embiid’s minutes plan, he will have played exactly 35 percent of available minutes for the Sixers this season.

It would be, without doubt, unprecedented. But the award is not all-encompassing, in regards to time. It is a relative award. It picks the best rookie contributor this year.

On a per-minute and per-game basis, Embiid unequivocally blows the competition into a new dimension. But minutes are far from an indicative a player’s true contributions. Adjusting players’ stats can often lead to a gross misinterpretation of players’ values.

Projections

Thus, to fully grasp the scope of their impacts, let’s examine each player’s (on-pace) total contributions. Remove the per-minute or per-game aspect from the equation. These are the projected total contributions that Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, and Malcolm Brogdon will make to their teams.

Sure, Embiid’s minutes restriction is both incomparable and cumbersome for the team to deal with. But if he contributes more, in sum, than either of his two primary competitors, why do the minutes matter? Sitting cross-legged at half-court for 726 more minutes this season would still allow Joel to rival his competitors’ total contributions.

What can change?

The caveat is that the season is far from over, and rookie production is rather fickle. Projections rarely hit the mark. Dario Saric, for example, is thriving in Embiid’s absence and has seen his numbers drastically improve over the past month.

With a season-ending injury to Jabari Parker, minutes and touches will also be on the rise for Malcolm Brogdon. Late season ping pong ball hunting could also mean more responsibilities for dark horses such as Brandon Ingram and Marquese Chriss.

But don’t expect anyone to touch Embiid.

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Brogdon has shattered expectations. Saric has been worth the wait, and then some. But Embiid is superior both within and outside of his minutes vacuum. The imbalance of minutes is a head-scratching figure that inculcates a need to reconsider the award’s criteria. But ultimately, Joel Embiid’s impact is far more unprecedented than his minutes disparity. This is his award to lose.

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