The Sixer Sense
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Are Lakers Tanking Over 2017 NBA Draft 1st Round Pick?

By Bret Stuter

Jun 23, 2016; New York, NY, USA; A general view of a video board displaying all thirty draft picks in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Philadelphia 76ers. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 23, 2016; New York, NY, USA; A general view of a video board displaying all thirty draft picks in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Philadelphia 76ers. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Los Angeles Lakers won games to open 2017 NBA season. Now the team is losing games in bunches. Rumors suggest the team will trade what little talent exists on the roster. Is it all a scheme to tank in an effort to save their 1st round draft pick in a loaded 2017 NBA Draft?

The Los Angeles Lakers are not a good team this season. In fact, the Lakers have not been a good team since the 2012-2013 season. Their demise has been nearly on a parallel track with that of the Philadelphia 76ers, with two exceptions:

EXCEPTION 1 – The Lakers have had more luck in the NBA Draft than an average NBA team (probability wise). Since making the playoffs at the end of the 2012-2013 season, the Lakers have finished 25th, 27th, 29th and are currently 28th. However, the Lakers draft picks have come in at 7th (24th rank), 2nd (29th rank), 2nd (29th rank) and this year’s pick to be determined. With two consecutive years picking at two, one would expect this team to be winning more games.

EXCEPTION 2 – The Lakers have rebuilt their team the traditional way.  In doing so, the team was quite active in free agency, signing small forward  Luol Deng and center Timofey Mozgov to lucrative multi-year deals.

Unexpected Results

By the end of November 2016, the Los Angeles Lakers were 10-10, and appeared to be scoring enough to offset a very poor defense.  But that early start, which was surprising, soon caved in upon the team.

Since that early success, the team has gone 9-29, plummeting to the 28th spot in the NBA rankings. What went wrong? The defense never improved, and the offense worsened.  The Lakers are loaded with back court young talent, but do not have a strong compatible front court.  And so, the team can move the ball quickly at the perimeter and score, but fail to stop their opponents from rebounding and driving the ball to the hoop.

Meanwhile, the team does not seem to have a cohesive plan in place.  The Lakers are loaded with back court talent heading into an NBA draft loaded with… back court talent.  With the Lakers in need of front court talent, and in lieu of the deep talent pool in the 2017 NBA Draft, it makes sense for the Lakers to seek trading for a more balanced roster, doesn’t it?

But there is more motivation for the Lakers to act in trading circles now. It’s known as the 2017 NBA Draft.

Tanks For The Draft Pick, Sixers!

The Los Angeles Lakers owe the Philadelphia 76ers a first round draft pick.  In 2017, that draft pick is protected if it falls among the top three of the NBA Draft.  As of today, the Lakers have a 53.1 percent chance of losing their pick to the Philadelphia 76ers.

But if the team were to worsen?  If the Lakers are the worst team in the NBA, the chances of conveying the pick fall to 35.7 percent.  If the Lakers end up at 29th, the team will have a 44.2 percent chance of delivering the pick to the 76ers.

So, the Lakers can improve their chances of keeping a first round pick in the NBA Draft in a loaded draft pool by losing?  No incentive there.

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Trade Rumors Or Tanking?

So let’s revisit the trade rumors in this new light.  The Lakers are rumored to have shooting guard Lou Williams on the trade block. It just so happens that Williams is the teams highest scorer at 18.6 points per game.  Alternatively, the team is rumored to be fielding offers for shooting guard Nick Young as well.  Nick Young is the team’s third leading scorer at 13.8 points per game.

Both Williams and Young are contracted through 2018 and at a fairly inexpensive cost.  While both are 30 years or older, they are solid pieces to this team.  Trading either or both does have some logic behind it.

But the mention of either suggests an alternative strategy as well. Parting ways with either or both player, this far into the season, suggests the team will have a far more difficult time of winning games.  While it’s virtually impossible at this point to fall under the Brooklyn Nets, the Lakers could land at the 29th ranked spot going into the NBA Lottery once more.

The Los Angeles Lakers continue to try to gain traction on a rebuild which is taking as much time as that of the Philadelphia 76ers.  As the 76ers have remained salary lean, the Lakers continue to pile up unwieldy contracts with veterans who do not pan out.  The key to any hopes of the Lakers is the 2017 NBA Draft.  If their first round pick conveys to the 76ers, the Lakers will be hard pressed to turn their team around anytime soon.

Next: Philadelphia 76ers: T.J. McConnell’s Long-Term Potential

The Philadelphia 76ers changed front office personnel despite coming out ahead in the rebuild process. The Lakers press forward. The NBA Trade Deadline is February 23rd. Philadelphia 76ers fans have more than just the 76ers to keep an eye on this year.  Watch the Lakers moves.  They not only have incentive to deal assets now for a better future, but they have incentive to tank to keep their draft pick.