Richaun Holmes: Past, Present, and Future

With Nerlens Noel gone and Joel Embiid out for the season, will Philadelphia 76ers Center Richaun Holmes finally overcome the narrative that has burdened him since high school?

The Past: Late Bloomer

Richaun Holmes is used to flying under the radar.

Despite a seven inch growth spurt to 6-9 between his sophomore and junior year of high school, Holmes’ newly towering frame with guard-like skills earned him zero Division I scholarship offers.

Holmes instead elected to play at Moraine Valley Community College, where he achieved junior college All-American honors. His freshman year performance yielded him his coveted Division I scholarship offer — at Bowling Green University.

Holmes’ three-year tenure at Bowling Green showed steady signs of progress as he settled into his prodigious frame. After his junior year, he added a 3-point shot to his arsenal. Coach Chris Jans estimated that Holmes put up 1,000 3-pointers every day. The result was a career high 14.7 points per game on 56 percent shooting including 41.9 percent from distance.

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Holmes’ late-bloomer status still follows him to this day. His under-sized, under-showcased, underdog nature cannot afford him the same opportunities or leeway that his highly touted teammates and colleagues can afford.

With the departure of two Sixer big men and the sidelining of another, Holmes finally has the stage.

Well, sort of. Holmes will still be backing up Jahlil Okafor. Yes, this Jahlil Okafor.

The Present: the Noel-Holmes parallel

Holmes’ high flying, rim-rolling showcase in the wake of the Nerlens Noel trade has given life to a Holmes vs. Noel debate. Will Holmes become the new Noel? Can he replace Noel’s gravity on pick and rolls — a crucial cog in Brett Brown’s offense — to collapse opposing defenses?

Noel’s offensive acclaim has always been more aesthetic than empirical. Noel’s propensity to bring lobs down from outer space is immensely entertaining. But it is not as intrinsically useful or irreplicable as perceived.

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In 49 possessions as the roll man in the pick and roll this season, Noel averages 1.1 points per possession. In his 47 possessions, Holmes averages 1.28 PPP — good enough for eighth in the NBA and 28 spots higher than Noel, per synergy sports (min. 40 possessions.)

As a sheer vertical threat, Holmes is sneakily yet materially superior to Noel. Holmes’ standing reach is just 1.5 inches below Noel’s, yet Holmes has a vertical leap that exceeds Noel’s by six inches. He is even more of a threat than Noel to bring lobs back down to earth.

Noel’s offense has never been what pays his salary. Last season, the Sixers were just .6 points better per 100 possessions with Nerlens Noel at center as opposed to the aforementioned and oft-maligned Jahlil Okafor.

The Sixers posted a 111 ORTg in the 470 minutes with Holmes as the lone center. Holmes’ performance was, again, materially better than his teammates’.

The Future: Making, or, not Making, the Leap

Despite much promise, Holmes still has major holes to patch up before fulfilling his potential.
His defensive rebounding was comically bad in his rookie year. Holmes posted a defensive rebounding percentage of just 11.7 percent. Despite a seven percent uptick to a passable 18.7 percent this season, Holmes still has a long way to go before anchoring the Sixers’ defensive glass.

Holmes’ offensive rebounding output is a positive sign for his development on the boards. Holmes has a team-high 10.1 offensive rebounding percentage this season.

His assault of the offensive glass shows that his rebounding issues do not result from effort. Holmes is an energizer bunny — which may be the source of his defensive hiccups.

Holmes is very undisciplined near the rim on defense. He wants to block

everything

.

Simply using sound footwork and staying vertical would sacrifice a few blocks, but would allow Holmes to plug far more holes on defense and stay in contention for defensive rebounds.

But hope abounds for Holmes. Taming the lion is a much simpler task than giving the lion courage. Adding a dose of discipline to Holmes’ defense should be a doable task for Brett Brown’s staff.

Everything about Holmes’ profile says that he should be a good defensive rebounder. It’s time for Holmes to make the leap — by not leaping so much.

The Verdict

Holmes will likely never match Noel’s ability to impact the game on defense. Noel’s pesky hands, guard-like lateral quickness, and awareness to dismantle pick and rolls are assets that Holmes — and all but a handful of players — just can’t match.

But what if Holmes outpaces Noel in most other aspects of his game? Holmes provides a superior pick and roll threat. He supplies an additional 3-point threat to stretch the defense to its limits. He places more stress on defenses as an offensive rebounding threat.

This is the crux of the narrative with Richaun Holmes. We scream out his failures and whisper his accomplishments. Holmes, in relatively similar sample sizes, has outpaced Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor in nearly every metric.

The offense has more continuity with Holmes than either of Noel or Okafor. His on court vs. off court stats show that the team is statistically better when Holmes is on the court. Yet, Holmes sits patiently on the bench until Jahlil Okafor needs a break.

It’s time for Holmes to break free from the echo chamber that his late bloomer status trapped him in. Perhaps now is when Holmes’ empirical superiority outvalues the reputations of his colleagues.
Or, we will see Holmes play his role dutifully, patiently waiting for the day he breaks through, some seven years after his late growth spurt.