We’re in the midst of March Madness — here’s how the NBA Draft picture is shaping up. Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers land a top 5 pick.
With March Madness kicking up the the race for the bottom following suit in the league’s cellar, it’s time to once again look towards what could be the most talented NBA Draft class since LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and others entered the league back in 2003.
Swarm and Sting
We’re through conference play now, with some substantial shifts in the collegiate landscape heading into the final stretch of the basketball season. Jayson Tatum and De’Aaron Fox have both undergone massive ascensions in the past couple of weeks, while the likes of Markelle Fultz and — in particular — Dennis Smith could experience the ill effects of not playing in the tournament.
March is among the most hectic times of the year — and often provides the type of nationally-prominent insight that can swing the pendulum for not only the fans at home, but front offices as well as they analyze the full embodiment of prospects’ resumes come June.
The Philadelphia 76ers, as has been the case for the past few seasons now, are trending towards a top pick in the NBA draft, with the top 3 well within reach given their recent struggles. The Sixers will have a chance this offseason to truly establish the direction of their franchise moving forward, something that hasn’t been concrete ever since the process-driven Hinkie era began.
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons — barring any setbacks — should be at full strength, while Dario Saric and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot seem to be playing their best basketball to date. Their core will finally be at full strength, and the draft will give them the ability to add another highly-touted piece to that group.
So, with the fourth spot being where they’re currently slotted in this mock, there remains a myriad of directions in which they could go, with the ever-present argument of best player available versus rotational fit playing a hefty role in any decision the front office makes.
And on that note, I’ll allow you to proceed. Here’s an in-depth look at the entirety of the first round of the NBA Draft and some scenarios that, as of right now, seem wholly possible.
Standings as of March 11th, with stats from DraftExpress or Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise stated.
As it stands, it’s difficult to picture any team passing up on Markelle Fultz’s talent at the one spot in the NBA Draft– even with the meteoric ascension of Lonzo Ball. The Washington freshman boasts the most diverse offensive repertoire of the top tier prospects in this year’s class, and gives Boston that superstar-potential talent that they’ve been so desperately in pursuit of in recent seasons. The only question is Fultz’s knee. Can it stand up to the 82 game NBA season?
Fultz has markedly few holes in his offensive game, as his 6-4 frame with a 6-9 wingspan allows him to attack in a variety of ways from the one spot. He’s a smooth outside shooter (41.3 percent), and has the type of shifty mid-range game and at-the-rim finishing touch that should translate into immediate offense at the next level.
There are obviously some fit concerns regarding Fultz and Isaiah Thomas, as both are ball dominant playmakers. Thomas — who’s arguably a top 5 name in the MVP race at this stage — is in the midst of his prime at 28, while Boston’s recent free agency splash, Al Horford, is 30-years-old himself. This is a team built to contend now, and throwing in another top tier point guard who’s just 19 is an awkward predicament to have.
But, given Fultz’s size and length, he has the ability to both backup and play alongside Thomas in the short term, with the long term prognosis likely depending on how well Fultz pans out at the next level. His talent is too much to pass up on here, and Boston pulls the trigger regardless of rotational quirks.
Ball has shot up NBA draft boards this season, emerging as one of the most efficient playmakers we’ve seen in recent years. His high I.Q. style of play has opened up the UCLA offense in impressive fashion, as he has played the role of catalyst for one of the NCAA’s more pass-happy, high octane offensive units.
What Ball lacks in all-around skill set, he makes up for with an incredible knack for creating plays elsewhere on the floor. He’s the most potent transition facilitator in college basketball, and backs that up with the type of court vision and passing touch that could allow him to up the overall efficiency of an NBA squad from day one — which would be incredibly rare for a freshman point guard.
The Lakers would obviously be selecting based on talent, not fit, in this scenario, as Ball is widely viewed by most scouts as the only viable competition to Fultz in this year’s class. And, while I’m hesitant to put him in that echelon with such a talented crop of prospects around him, his skill set does mesh uniquely well with Luke Walton’s offensive style.
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Ball’s best offensive production comes when pushing the break in transition, and Los Angeles has all the requisite pieces needed to allow him to do so. As Brandon Ingram improves his shot and D’Angelo Russell increases his feel for the game, rolling out small ball lineups with Ball at the helm is something Walton could be easily capable of doing. Imagine tossing Ball-Russell-Young-Ingram-Randle onto the floor and letting them loose in transition. It’s gives Walton his own B-rate version of the death lineup he helped coach in Golden State, while also making this L.A. team — at the very least — fun to watch.
Also, LaVar Ball said his son is a Laker. Who wants to mess that up?
The Suns roll with Jackson here, adding perhaps the most versatile wing in this year’s class. With the two top point guards off the board and their backcourt relatively settled around Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker at this point, it makes sense for them to venture to the wing for some additional long term depth outside of T.J. Warren.
Air Alamo
Jackson’s one knock at this point is that he can’t shoot from the perimeter, and that’s something Phoenix would have to work around year one. Bledsoe doesn’t exactly thrive as a spot-up shooter by any means, and Jackson’s best offensive flashes come when he’s driving the lane and opening up passing lanes elsewhere on the floor. That does, however, provide a really nice combination with the aforementioned Booker’s prowess as a 3-point shooter. If the Suns are looking to (wisely) build for the post-Bledsoe era, that makes a Jackson pick even more reasonable.
Jackson’s ultra-strong feel for the game and uncanny athleticism should allow him to find success off the ball some, even in an awkward fit with alongside an attack-heavy point guard in Bledsoe. He excels when pushing the pace in transition and finding teammates leaking out on the fastbreak, something this Suns’ youthful core is well constructed for. Both Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender are capable — in different capacities — as shooters from deep, while both scale the court in long strides in transition. Booker has obvious value as the trailing shooter in transition.
The offensive upside, combined with Jackson’s elite defensive presence on the wing, is enough to push him up to the third spot here — and he’s someone the Suns would have few qualms about taking should he remain available.
Tatum’s stellar ACC tournament run has upped his stock significantly in recent weeks. As he has adjusted to the college game, his improvements have been wide-ranging. Rather than purely inconsistent bouts of scoring, he’s establishing his aptness as a passer off the drive, while showing far more comfort handling the ball and finishing around the basket on a consistent basis.
The Sixers’ best fit in this year’s class is relatively obvious — Malik Monk. But, with the way his stock is trending, they could easily find Tatum too good to pass up on come draft night. He’s the most polished wing scorer in this year’s class, and gives Philadelphia some solid defensive potential in the frontcourt alongside a much-needed scoring punch outside of Joel Embiid.
Tatum’s ability to get to the rim and either score around the basket or hit the open cutter fits extremely well inside Philadelphia’s dribble-handoff heavy offense, while his shooting touch — albeit shaky for most of the season at 34.8 percent from deep – should be strong enough to work off of Simmons at a high level on the perimeter.
It’s rare to find offensive players with Tatum’s polish offensively, and that type of quality scoring is something the Sixers most certainly need to put into the rotation alongside Ben Simmons’ playmaking at the four spot. Philadelphia might be sending Dario Saric to bench with this move, but is could be well worth it.
Elfrid Payton continues to woo us out of the blue, putting up a random streak of triple-doubles right as people were beginning to lose faith in his future prospects. With that said, though, Smith’s talent could be viewed as too high to pass up here, as his ceiling ranges far beyond that of the ever-unpredictable Elfrid.
Cincy on the Prowl
While Smith enjoyed an off-and-on campaign with a lackluster N.C. State team, his upside as both a scorer and a playmaker is relatively obvious. He’s the most explosive creator in the halfcourt among point guards, as his quick first step and incredible knack for getting elevation around the rim allow him to get into the teeth of the defense and wreak havoc at the basket.
He scores at all three levels, and that’s something that’s not only important in today’s NBA, but can’t be said for one of his most notable counterparts in Lonzo Ball. Smith’s 3-point shooting stabilized as the season progressed, with him overcoming a rough start with a handful of genuinely impressive performances in the midst of ACC play.
Effort and attitude were a handful of Smith’s biggest concerns this season, as he seemed disengaged at times — especially when the Wolfpack got down by larger margins. How he’s able to adjust to an NBA system, especially with a team that likely won’t win much early on in Orlando, would be something worth keeping an eye on.
The Magic have a good bit of promising young talent, though, as the majority of their core pieces — sans Nikola Vucevic — fall under the 25 years mark in terms of age. Rob Hennigan is struggling to rebuild this franchise, and Smith has the second highest upside in this year’s class.
After a minor knee injury seemed to slow him down for a bit, De’Aaron Fox has burst back onto the scene in lieu of an impressive SEC tournament run. The shifty, beyond-quick freshman point guard was hitting mid-range jumpers with far more confidence than we saw earlier in the campaign, and utilized his physical tools to attack the rim at a rate we hadn’t quite seen yet.
Fox’s game is among the more well-rounded in this year’s class, with a sub-19 percent clip from deep being the only damper on an otherwise-top-5 worthy resume. Hes the fastest player end to end in this year’s class, and possesses an equally-as-quick first step when operating off the bounce in the halfcourt.
Ideally, given the Kings’ minimalistic talent at this stage, Sacramento would be able to surround Fox with shooters in the coming season, establishing him as a core piece on the perimeter alongside a highly skilled exterior scorer in Buddy Hield. His dribble penetration opens up passing lanes to the outside, while his improved pull-up game could signal some optimism in regards to him formulating some form of sustainable success from beyond the arc later on down the line.
Add Fox’s elite defensive talent to that mix — boasting a lanky 6-4 frame with excellent lateral quickness and a great knack for playing the passing lanes — and the Kings could find him to be the best option available to help revitalize their dismantled core.
The Knicks can add some depth at the forward spots in the NBA draft, as they could look to develop Carmelo Anthony’s eventual replacement in Jonathan Isaac. The Florida State freshman has operated in a fairly limited role this season, playing just over 25 minutes per game as the bona fide third option for a Seminoles team that enjoys reaching well into their 12-man rotation at times.
At 6-11 with a 7-2 wingspan, Isaac is a physical freak with the potential to be cultivated into a special two-way weapon in time. His 3-point percentage has dropped to just 35.3 in recent weeks, but he displays a smooth stroke with no noticeable hitches, as well as a strong feel for shots from mid-range and on the low block. His size allows him to shoot over smaller defenders, while his quickness in turn gives him the advantage against most opponents capable of matching his physical tools.
This is a Knicks team that doesn’t have much in their favor moving forward at this point, with the best buddy duo of Kristaps Porzingis and Willy Hernangomez in the interior providing, arguably, their best long term prospects as of right now. They’re likely to move on from Derrick Rose this offseason, and could reingnite their search for Carmelo Anthony suitors this offseason as they look to close the proverbial book on the first stint of a rough era under Phil Jackson.
Isaac is likely the biggest project of the upper tier talents, but combines that with the upside that makes it well worth the gamble. Defensive versatility, potential as a small ball four alongside Porzingis, and plenty of offensive tools to work with make his thin frame less worrisome, while the Knicks could likely afford him plenty of playing time in favor of cultivating their youngest talents next season.
Vivek Ranadive loves shooters, and that’s what Markkanen is in this NBA draft. The Finnish 7-footer is hitting on 43.2 percent of his 3-point shots this season, as aspect of his offensive game that currently takes up 44.4 percent of his shot selection, per Hoop-Math.com. There’s a legitimate argument to be made that Markkanen is the best pure shooter in this year’s class — and that’s virtually unheralded considering the simple fact that he’s a true big man.
Sir Charles In Charge
The Kings would, in this case, add Markkanen to a core consisting of Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox, a solid balance of both slashing and shooting on the perimeter to coincide with the strong spacing the Arizona freshman brings to the frontcourt. Lauri is an easy pick-and-pop threat, with the gravity of his shooting often opening up driving lanes for the ball handler or giving him far-too-easy looks off the ensuing double team. He can also handle the ball in a 4-5 pick-and-roll, a weapon that’s both unique and extremely dangerous when utilized correctly.
Imagine Markkanen coming around screens and finding Willie Cauley-Stein with some quality lob passes. That’d be fun to watch.
The biggest weakness in Markkanen’s game at this point is his defense, as his lack of awareness and mediocre length often limit his effectiveness in protecting the rim and being effective in rotations around the basket. His mobility is a nice boost, and he’ll likely become more comfortable as he spends time in an NBA system and continues to add strength to his frame, but the deficiency is one that teams will have to game plan around.
Regardless, though, the Kings are primed to pull the trigger on him here. The offensive versatility he provides in the frontcourt alongside Hield and Fox is something that Sacramento can build upon moving forward, while giving them the ability to experiment in the frontcourt a bit with the aforementioned Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere as they gauge their rotation moving forward.
The Timberwolves jump on Monk here by virtue of talent alone, as he’s the last remaining prospect from the elite upper tier of this year’s class. The Kentucky freshman has been a flamethrower all season, hitting on 40.3 percent of his shots from deep despite taking a rather hefty 6.9 attempts per game. His evolution as on off-ball scorer has cemented himself as a prime NBA asset on the wing, while his elite athletic tools sets his expectations a shade higher than most seemingly one-dimensional scorers.
While this may create a bit of a logjam between Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and Monk, there’s really nobody worth gambling on ahead of Monk should he fall this far. Concerns about his lack of dribble penetration and finishing touch around the rim are counteracted by a quick first step and exceptional burst off the bounce, and his somewhat lacking size for the shooting guard spot — just 6-3 — can be offset by coupling him with somebody capable of guarding the opposing two-guard in the backcourt, which LaVine certainly provides.
Monk’s shooting gives another dynamic to an already explosive young roster, with both LaVine and Andrew Wiggins proving themselves to be reliable 20-point scorers on the perimeter despite sharing the scoring load with Karl-Anthony Towns on the interior. Monk has the skill set needed to play alongside both Dunn and LaVine — and Ricky Rubio, for as long as he’s in town — with success, whether that’s coming off the bench as Minnesota’s best answer to Lou Williams or betting on his scoring punch as an immediate starting asset.
Shooting is at a premium in today’s league, and that’s precisely what you get with Monk in the rotation. J.R. Smith and the aforementioned Williams comparisons are bound to come when looking at perimeter-heavy scorers of Monk’s ilk, but his underrated passing vision and innate NBA fit help appease any concerns — whether valid or not — that those comparisons may generate.
The Mavericks struck gold with Yogi Ferrell this season, but he’s not the answer to their long term point guard needs. With the 5-9 dynamo from Indiana likely fitting into their rotation better as a sixth man moving forward, Ntilikina gives Dallas the chance to establish their direction in the backcourt alongside their quality frontcourt pieces in Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel.
At 6-5 with a wingspan in the 6-11 range, Ntilikina — born in Belgium — has the physical tools needed to translate to the NBA point guard spot with relative ease. He’s a smooth playmaker in the pick-and-roll, and has perhaps the most intelligent approach to the game outside of Fultz and Ball, a solid title to boast when considering he’s among the younger players in this year’s class.
Forced to play mostly off the ball in limited minutes with Strasbourg this season, Ntilikina’s performance in the European U18 championships helped solidify his standing as one of the draft’s better prospects. He was forced into a role that required him to search out his own offense, something he has struggled with notably in the past, which led to some highly promising results. He shot 17 of 29 from deep throughout the tournament, while sealing up the title and tourney MVP with a 31-point outing in the finals against Lithuania.
He showed off solid touch off the bounce as well as off the catch, with the type of all-around game that — when packaged with the elite defensive upside his physical tools provide — should be a relatively easy pick for a Dallas squad in need of perimeter depth.
The Trail Blazers got a sizable defensive boost with the addition of Jusuf Nurkic to their frontcourt prior to the trade deadline, but Williams has the potential to give their team defense an entirely new wrinkle in time. At 6-9, he’s a bit undersized by typical measures at the four spot, but plays far larger then that, as his 7-4 wingspan and incredible bounciness around the basket has allowed him to develop into college basketball’s most prolific shot blocker this season.
Williams’ ability to stretch around the floor from the four spot, though, is what makes him so impressive. He moves his feet well out to the 3-point line, and was rather consistent in his ability to pull off the occasional blocked shot when stationed along the perimeter. He can bother shots from virtually anywhere on the court with his length, and that alone translates to elite defensive potential. When combined with his improved instincts, his upside on that side of the ball alone establishes him as a solid lottery pick.
Portland — for the time being — is set in the backcourt with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, while Allen Crabbe and Moe Harkless have provided some quality minutes at the three spot. Adding some depth to a four spot that currently boasts Noah Vonleh as their starter is something they will likely be looking to do.
There is certainly some concern with Williams’ offensive repertoire and just how developed it is — or isn’t — at this point, but the tools are promising enough. He’s a quality slasher and an easy candidate to finish above the rim on little lob passes at the basket. He’s also a solid pick-and-roll finisher, and has showcased an apt mid-range game this season (41.1 percent, per Hoop-Math.com).
Cody Zeller is a fine NBA player, and Frank Kaminsky seems to be trending in that same direction, but they could stand to improve their depth at the center position as they look to revamp their consistently mediocre rotation. Patton has the potential to help them do so.
At 6-11 with a long, lanky frame, Patton simply fills up a lot of space around the basket. He’s quick on his feet for a player of his size, and plays both sides of the basketball with the type of energy that’ll help him find success in numerous facets at the next level. He plays above the rim with ease, finishing off lobs and having the potential to flourish as the roll man at the next level, especially if paired with a point guard of Kemba Walker’s caliber in that regard.
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Patton can get a bit rushed into his motions on the block still, especially when working in isolation, but he’s putting the proverbial pieces together at a promisingly high rate this season. As a nearly-unheralded redshirt freshman coming in, he ascended into the lottery conversation in a fairly short period of time — and that’s a testament to both his work ethic and his budding skill set.
His finishing touch around the basket with little jump hooks and drop shots in the painted area has improved vastly, while his jumper is being extended with relative success all the way out to the 3-point line on occasion. He’s a 34.8 percent shooter in the mid-range game as well, boasting some sizable pick-and-pop potential down the road.
His defensive upside is also far higher than that of Zeller or Kaminsky in regards to protecting the rim, something they could stand to benefit from given their already-solid defensive core.
Bridges has been a highly-touted freshman since the beginning of the season, and little has changed in that regard despite a somewhat uninspiring season for Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad. As more of a power forward in a small forward’s body, there are some clear hurdles that Bridges will have to overcome to maximize his effectiveness at the next level, but his physical tools and upside alone are enough for a team — like Chicago — to jump on him in the lottery.
It’s genuinely tough to get a read on Bridges’ game at times, which makes him one of the more notable wildcards in this year’s class. He’s shooting a strong 38.8 percent from deep — something that will be imperative to his success at the next level — yet the ball doesn’t always look consistent coming off his hands, and his feel for the game is a massive work in progress when handling the ball on the outside.
Bridges has shown a tendency to force up some bad shots on occasion, especially when attempting to keep the Spartans in games. He doesn’t pass the ball all that well off the outside, and will at times settle for step-back 3-pointers that are far lower in quality that a shot he could get en route to the basket or a shot he could help create via improved ball movement. He’ll likely be relegated more to a spot-up role at the next level — which is probably best — but his limited awareness on that side of the ball does play a factor.
Where Bridges will excel though is in transition, whether as an undersized stretch four or as a small forward should he successfully make that switch full-time. His athleticism and unreal strength allows him to overwhelm teams in fastbreak scenarios, and often leads to him throwing down a dunk contest-worthy slam to cap it off. He also has the defensive potential that comes with being a burly 6-7 wing with his athleticism, but his length — just 6-9 or so — is lackluster when matched up with his natural position, per se, at the four spot.
Hartenstein has what I would consider to be one of the higher upsides among big men in this year’s class. At 7-feet, the German lefty has flashed immense potential as a shooter from deep, while handling the ball extremely well for his size and displaying court vision that doesn’t often bundle itself with a strong-framed big man. All the tools — and skills — are in place for Hartenstein to become a bona fide steal at some point in the middle of the first round, it’s just a matter of him remaining consistent enough to achieve that level of production on a nightly basis.
The Heat are in the midst of, well, I don’t really know. Their roster has the looks of a team attempting to rebuild, yet their production as of late has shown flashes of a competitive squad in the Eastern Conference playoff race — one that could trouble some upper-seeded teams if they manage to sneak into the 6th or 7th seed conversation in a wide-open Eastern Conference.
All-in-all, the Heat’s frontcourt is what still needs the most work, with Hassan Whiteside being the only real building block in that part of their rotation. Hartenstein gives them a potential floor spacer and a strong offensive weapon to cultivate alongside Hassan’s defensive presence around the rim, while also giving Goran Dragic another guy to play with off of screens.
Hartenstein averaged over 5 assists per 40 minutes in the U18 European championship, but coupled that with over 6 turnovers per 40 as well. That type of inconsistent, inefficient basketball is what he needs to overcome to find his greatest success at the NBA level. He has the ball control, vision, and shooting potential to match Lauri Markkanen’s ceiling at his max, but lacks the quality decision making and temperament to make that a reality as it stands.
Ideally, the Heat could help unlock the upper echelon of his potential.
Jackson — the ACC player of the year — has made his most impressive strides yet this season. He has transformed from an inconsistent, downhill scorer into one of the conference’s more effective all-around options. His three-point percentage is up to 37.7 percent this season, a circa 10 percent jump in comparison to his prior two seasons. The junior is finally rounding into what many thought his ceiling could signify, and his NBA draft stock seems to be rising substantially as a result.
With neither Danilo Gallinari nor Wilson Chandler much of a guarantee moving forward, the Nuggets could be looking to pull the trigger on some extra depth at the forward spots. With an offense based around ball movement, headed by Nikola Jokic and the ever-skilled duo of Gary Harris and — at least, more so moving forward — Jamal Murray, Jackson’s heady slashing and solid spot-up game could translate nicely.
He makes sharp cuts off the ball, and manages to boast a consistently impressive furnishing touch around the basket despite a somewhat unnatural feel to his game. He doesn’t make it look fluid all the time, but it works — and his skill level has shown tremendous improvements this season nonetheless.
Jackson also brings some nice defensive potential to the wing, with his long arms and solid mobility allowing him to keep up with multiple positions on the perimeter. His strength will likely determine how effective he is venturing down into the interior at the next level — especially if he tries any minutes as a stretch four — but that’s, at a minimum, a few years away as it currently stands.
There’s no guarantee that Bruce Brown commits to this draft this offseason, but if he does, there’s a chance he ends up coming off the board higher than many expect. The 6-5 comboguard has modeled his game after Russell Westbrook in some ways, proving an explosive offensive game in unison with a noticeably confident demeanor on the court.
While there are certainly some rough spots in his game still, the Miami freshman has shown all tthe tools needed to be an effective offensive sparkplug at the next level. His quick first step and high leaping ability makes him a strong finisher around the rim, as he often finds ways to finish above or through contact at the rim with impressive ease. Brown is also a 34.8 percent shooter from deep, providing streaky-but-effective production from beyond the arc when necessitated.
His mid-range game (currently just 25.9 percent, per Hoop-Math.com) is still a work in progress, but his ability to make quick bursts off the dribble and find space off the hop should be able to translate into a more consistent threat in time.
Brown’s defensive potential is what slides him into the late lottery, mid-first round conversation though — even if it seems a year or two early at this point. His strength and length (6-9 wingspan) allows him to play the passing lanes with success, while guarding both guard positions at a high level on the outside.
His high energy play on both ends, as well as the raw potential he provides on the offensive end, is enough for a Bucks team — who likes to take risks — to pull the trigger.
Collins is averaging a more-than-solid 20.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game in conference play this season, as he has showcased some immense improvements in his game after a freshman campaign that generated little notoriety on a national scale. At 6-10 with a solid frame and excellent athleticism around the basket, Collins still has some improvements to make skill-wise, but has certainly looked the part of a quality first rounder in recent weeks.
The Pistons — with little certainty in the frontcourt outside of Andre Drummond — can afford to add some more depth at the four spot, even with Henry Ellenson — last year’s mid-first round pick — waiting quietly in the wings.
Collins gives the Pistons another energetic presence on the boards, as well as somebody who has shown increasing utility as a finisher around the basket, both in the pick-and-roll and with an improved array of spin-moves and hook shots around the rim. He still has work to do in regards to ironing out his game around the basket — some of his shots are a bit wonky at this point — but the footwork and the basis for improvement is already in place.
There’s also the potential that Collins provides as a mid-range pick-and-pop threat, as he’s hitting on 44.8 percent of his 2-point jumpers thus far, per Hoop-Math.com.
That aforementioned energy, though, is what is going to give Collins a successful career at the next level. He’s a quality shot blocker around the rim given his activity in rotations and his mobility when recovering off the dribble, while his rebounding has been among the best in the ACC — if not the best — for the better part of conference play. He’s a solid backup four man with some decent upside beyond that, someone Van Gundy and company wouldn’t mind taking at 17.
Ferguson passed up on the opportunity to play with Arizona this season, as the fomrmer McDonald’s All-American decided to instead play a season of professional ball overseas with the Adelaide 36ers in Australia. The young sharpshooter still has a relatively limited all-around game on the offensive end, but does one very important thing at an extremely high level — shoot.
The 18-year-old Texas native is one of the better pure shooters in this year’s class, utilizing his quickness to bolt around screens and free up space when he’s off the ball, helping to space the offense and keep the unit in motion, even when he’s not touching the basketball. He doesn’t let the ball sit in one place much, and can use his quickness to attack off up-fakes and get inside the teeth of the defense on straight-line drives. He doesn’t necessarily create his own shot much off the dribble, but has shown enough flashes to deem that a feasible improvement in time.
This is a Pacers team that needs some depth elsewhere in the rotation, but could view a shooter of Ferguson’s caliber as too good to pass up on. Not only is shooting one of the more essential commodities in today’s league, but his defensive upside is also one of the highest among swingmen. Having a knockdown shooter who can defend multiple positions at a high level fills the mold of prototypical 3-and-D contributor to a virtual T.
He’s essentially a better version of Glenn Robinson III, and someone who gives them the added youth factor that guys like C.J. Miles and Rodney Stuckey don’t. They aren’t necessarily set on building around Paul George long term either — there’s a decent chance he ends up elsewhere in the coming seasons — meaning the extra insurance could prove to be enticing.
Anunoby has the makings of the best perimeter defender in this year’s class, with a midseason torn ACL likely being the only thing withholding him from the top 10 conversation at this point. At 6-8 with a wingspan potentially surpassing 7-4, Anunoby has an incredibly well-developed set of physical tools, with the strength and flexibility needed to guard four positions at an extremely high level.
There are some fundamental aspects of O.G.’s game that could use some polish, but his energy alone helps overcome that. He plays the passing lanes extremely well, and uses his length and relentless effort to get into his opponents space and force turnovers and contested shots at an impressive clip. He also makes solid rotations into the interior, coming up with the occasional block when put in a scenario to do so.
The Blazers have already addressed frontcourt depth with Robert Williams earlier on, meaning they can add yet another elite defensive prospect on the wing here, giving them — ideally — the best perimeter defender alongside the best interior defender in this year’s class. That could be a special combination.
As their roster currently stands, the Blazers’ depth on the wing remains relatively flimsy. Anunoby’s defensive pedigree is something that’s tough to pass up on this late in the draft, even with the newfound injury concerns his knee now provides. Portland is a team that has needed improved defense for a while now, especially with their backcourt showing such profound deficiencies at times. Anunoby and Williams help that cause immensely.
Oklahoma City doesn’t really have any sizable holes in their roster, meaning they can go with somebody based on talent alone here — and Luke Kennard fits that bill. The Duke sophomore has made incredible — and unexpected — strides this season, emerging as one of the ACC’s most dynamic offensive weapons outside of the aforementioned Justin Jackson. He’s one of the draft’s better pure shooters, and brings the type of complimentary skill set that could develop well as a Russell Westbrook accompaniment.
Kennard is hitting on 44.3 percent of his 3-point attempts this season, executing well both off the catch and off the dribble, at times. He wields a nice set of up-fakes and head-jerks that he can use to clear the defender and find his rhythm off of one or two dribbles, and uses that same tool kit when carving out space in the mid-range game. He also does well as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, accompanying well-developed court vision with a silky floater and a smooth mid-range jumper, which is currently falling at a cool 50 percent, per Hoop-Math.com.
Kennard’s general polish — even without great athletic tools by NBA standards — makes him somebody who’s difficult to bet against heading to the next level. He has an innate feel for the game, and it’s evident in all the heady, intellectually advanced plays he makes on a nightly basis. He’s the consumate definition of a glue guy, and fits the archetype of a strong perimeter shooter that has become increasingly imperative in today’s league.
Where he falls on Oklahoma City’s bench early on is a bit of a question mark, with Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, Doug McDermott and Alex Abrines all likely to stay ahead of him, assuming they’re all still on the roster. That doesn’t, however, make the pick any less valuable. Not only does Kennard have the potential to still carve out a niche in some capacity, but he’s the type of quality leader and well-mannered kid that should stick around for the foreseeable future. His work ethic has been evident with Duke, and that should translate at the next level.
Giles is one of the more interesting cases in this NBA draft class. Once the top overall prospect in his class, Giles has seen his stock drop dramatically in lieu of a knee injury that kept him out through both his final high school season and the first half of his freshman campaign with the Blue Devils. As it currently stands, Giles has already sustained both a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee, as well as a torn ACL in his right knee before getting to the professional level. That injury history alone makes his draft stock a risky bet.
With that said, though, the potential is still there. His excellent motor on the offensive glass, as well as strong instincts on the defensive glass, make him an immediate asset at the next level, while his improved comfort level on offense — especially during the ACC tournament — could signal a potential return to form in some capacity. While his lost athleticism likely prevents his ceiling from reaching the peak that it did during his pre-collegiate days, his talent level is high enough to warrant a first round gamble — and the Hawks should be a team willing to take that risk.
With neither Dwight Howard nor Paul Millsap factoring into their long term plans, the Hawks find themselves notably thin in the frontcourt moving forward. Giles has — without much debate — the highest upside of any big man left here, and Atlanta has proven themselves to be among the more skillful talent developers in the league under Mike Budenholzer’s crew. His soft touch around the basket and decent prowess in the pick-and-roll could be cultivated into a solid weapon alongside Dennis Schroder, while he has shown some flashes of a solid mid-range jumper in the past, where he’s hitting at 37.5 percent clip in a relatively small sample size this season, per Hoop-Math.com.
How Giles holds up defensively — especially if they shift him to center, which is distinctly possible — is his biggest concern at this point. It’s always tough for big men when knee concerns to carve out a consistent, sustainable career. His skill is there — it’s just a matter of whether or not his body is too.
Kurucs has been flying under the radar for most of this NBA draft season, showing up in the first round conversation on a consistent basis, yet never really garnering the same coverage as names like Ntilikina and Hartenstein. At 6-8 with a long arms and a fluid offensive game, the 19-year-old projects as the type of offensive sparkplug that could earn him a spot in the league right away, albeit not likely.
At this stage in his development, the biggest knock on Kurucs boils down to his consistency. He’s shooting a respectable 32.7 percent from beyond the arc, yet could stand to improve upon that percentage given his thinner frame and still-developing offensive repertoire, especially if he wants to make an impact early on. He has a handful of dribble moves he can use to work his way into the teeth of the defense but has shown his most prominent struggles in catch-and-shoot scenarios, another hindrance for a potential transition to the league in year one.
With that said, he does have some solid bounce to his step, making smart passes out of drives and playing above the rim when capable of doing so in transition. He has all the tools needed to become a quality all-around scorer — especially given his physical tools — but hasn’t quite pieced together how to fit his skills together yet.
The Raptors, as they currently stand, are trending towards being a competitive roster over the next couple of seasons, meaning they can afford to bring Kurucs along slowly. Whether that means keeping him overseas with Barcelona or adding him to the squad on a two-way contract is yet to be seen, but the upside would be worth investing in.
The Magic lack power forward depth behind Aaron Gordon. That need makes Leaf a prime candidate in this NBA draft to fill that void in the second unit. The UCLA stud has been a clear beneficiary of UCLA’s wide-open, up-and-down style of play alongside Lonzo Ball. But he possesses the type of high-I.Q., skill-laden game that should translate to almost any offensive system.
Leaf does well in multiple spots offensively. He handles well in straight-line drives, and has the court vision needed to make solid kick-outs to the perimeter or pass out of the interior when stationed on the low block. He’s also a solid outside shooter, as his 46.2 percent clip from deep allows him to space out the offense while still holding the ability to attack closeouts off the dribble, a valuable tool in the modern NBA.
Leaf’s smart all-around game is something that meshes perfectly with the second unit, especially for a team like Orlando with such a high variance in skill set throughout their rotation. His combination of shooting, passing,and general feel for the game helps tie an offensive unit together, and that’s something the Magic could certainly use.
With a pair of heavy slashers at the one spot in Smith Jr. and Payton, Leaf would give Orlando the requisite spacing needed to make it work, essentially operating as the offensive punch behind a defensively-minded Gordon in a sense. Orlando has quite a bit to figure out, but Leaf helps fill some minor holes that need filling. He makes too much sense to not consider here.
The Jazz are dangerously short on talent in the frontcourt behind Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, with Trey Lyles emerging as their only long term solution in any capacity at this point. And, while there’s certainly no downright need for traditionalist bigs in today’s league, Rabb’s well-rounded skill set and smooth interior play allows him to be productive on a consistent basis, and could be a welcomed addition to Utah’s second unit.
Rabb doesn’t have the strength nor rim protection to provide much defensively at the center spot right now, but I could see him developing into a nice option behind Gobert in that role down the road. His fluid offensive game on the low block has it’s kinks, but often yields good looks and a noticeably soft touch around the basket. He has also showed some prowess popping out to the elbow and hitting the occasional mid-ranger, something that could add more variety to his game down the road.
He’s also another smart passer out of the interior, making good reads with his back to the basket and finding open cutters on the regular. His evolving offensive arsenal is also coupled with high energy on the boards, giving him the potential to affect the game in multiple facets off the bench. He could be the offensive punch behind a defensively oriented starting core, and Utah could greatly benefit from such an addition alongside a player in Trey Lyles who — I believe, at least — has a solid future moving forward as a stretch four.
Adebayo has made some major offensive strides as of late, showing off a set of post moves that were nonexistent when the season first began. The concerns that held him back before, though, are still present — and thus he remains a bit further back that some may expect for the time being.
Even with the improvements, Adebayo is still an undersized center with little to speak of offensively when venturing outside the painted area. His physical tools alone give him an advantage that most teenagers don’t have when coming into the league, but big men who don’t produce offensively outside of shots at the rim have an increasingly limited role at the next level, and it’ll be difficult for Bam to buck that trend.
Where Adebayo does fill a very specific, but very important, niche at an extremely high level is on the defensive side of the ball. His strength, length, and leaping ability should allow him to play above his size, while his rim protection skills are among the best in this year’s class. He’s also a constant reserve of energy on the boards, using his bulky frame and great motor to carve out space underneath and grab rebounds at a high level.
One comparison that seems fitting is a smaller Tristan Thompson, which is one that certainly outlines the minutia of his game well. The Nets are devoid of sustainable, starting-level long term talent at this point, with Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson being the only ones potentially capable of carrying on a load remotely close to that down the road. Adebayo may or may not be a starter — and he definitely won’t be while Brook Lopez is still on the team — but he fills that effort-based role that every competitive roster needs, and should be able to do so from day one.
The Nets get back to back NBA draft picks here courtesy of the Bojan Bogdanovic deal. The Nets need talent, and they fill some of the void he left on the perimeter with another high octane offensive guard in Donovan Mitchell. The Louisville sophomore has come through in a major way for the Cardinals, upping his scoring output in every facet while occasionally filling in as the stopgap point guard, to boot.
Mitchell’s ceiling is fairly obvious upon watching him play, as his explosive athleticism and knack for shot making — despite some difficult attempts — give him clear-cut potential as a scoring threat on the wing. He has a quick first step off the dribble, and has proven himself to be one of college basketball’s craftier finishers around the interior. He can finish above the rim in emphatic fashion, or contort his body in mid air to find the right angle off the glass.
That aptness off the drive in coupled with improved consistency from outside, as his 3-point percentage (35.3) is an over-10 percent increase in comparison to last season. His quick, compact form allows him to get off shots in traffic, while that aforementioned quickness allows him to create off the dribble at an extremely high level.
That, combined with improved skills as a passer, makes the fact that he’s only 6-3 a very minor concern heading on to the next level. This is a Nets team that needs talent in the most pressing of the ways, and Mitchell is — without much debate — the best player left on the board at this point.
While there’s a more than solid chance that the Blazers use their third first round pick as an overseas stash, Motley could entice them enough to make them double down on interior depth instead. After a couple of solid seasons with Baylor, Motley has emerged as one of the country’s best big men in his junior campaign — and brings the type of two-way production that could fit nicely in the reserve rotation.
At 6-9, Motley is a bit undersized, but counters that with solid length and tremendous skill on the interior. He passes well out of double teams, and possesses the quickness needed to attack closeouts off the perimeter, as well as make strong cuts when working off the basketball. That, combined with nice touch on the low block and an improved mid-range game, make Motley a solid offensive glue guy in the rotation.
Motley’s impact on the boards and on the defensive side of the ball are what pushes his stock into the first round realm, though. He’s a high-energy rebounder, using his athleticism and relentless physicality to find his way to the boards at an extremely high level. He also provides tremendous versatility defensively, as his mobility allows him to stretch out to the perimeter without being a considerable liability.
It’s not often that two-way players with Motley’s combination of physical tools and skill level come along this late in the first round, and that could push Portland to take a gamble on a third guaranteed contract.
Swanigan has been putting up All-American numbers this season, averaging 18.4 points and 12.6 rebounds per contest, while tacking on an more-than-impressive 42.7 percent from beyond the arc in the process. Based on statistical output alone, it’s difficult to imagine the Purdue big man dropping much further than the later stages of the first round, even with his questionable NBA fit.
At just 6-9, it’s difficult to get a read on just how well Swanigan’s game translates to the next level. While he has slimmed down significantly this season, he’s still slower than most forwards with his height disadvantage, likely relegating him to a small ball five role in a sense, despite not having the typical traits of one. His lateral mobility limits him defensively in a massive way, which makes it difficult to project him as much more than a role player at the next level.
With that said, however, Swanigan could give the Lakers some decent energy around the basket. His strength and competitive fire alone will allow him to grab rebounds at a decent rate, while his perimeter shooting does afford him some utility outside of straight post-ups, an absolute must in regards to his success at the next level.
A lot of what Swanigan’s success will be based on how well that outside shot transfers, as well as the improvements he makes in regards to both mobility and defense in general. He can block shots at the rim, but with limited lift and a less obvious physical advantage at the next level, that facet of his game will depreciate in value rather quickly.
He’s obviously limited, but has enough to get by with a real role in the rotation from day one. It’ll be interesting to see how his career progresses, to say the least.
In this NBA draft, Lydon gives the Spurs some frontcourt depth with a smooth three-point shot and solid athletic tools. Those alone virtually guarantee his success in San Antonio’s long-withstanding basketball machine. At 6-10, Lydon’s thin build might hinder his defensive success at the power forward spot, but he has the mobility to fill in as a small forward when needed as well, providing some solid versatility to a Spurs rotation that could certainly benefit from some outside of Kawhi Leonard.
There are times when Lydon lets it fly from well beyond the three-point line and it still looks good coming out of his hand. He has the type of perimeter mobility and quick, concise jumper that translates extremely well in the pick-and-pop, while also allowing him to make cuts off the ball and work well in the a Spurs offense that relies heavily on constant movement throughout.
There have been some knocks on Lydon’s aggressiveness on offense, with his passivity at times limiting his success. And, while that’s a definite concern at the colleigate level, I don’t foresee it being an issue when entering a more limited role at the next level — especially under the guidance of somebody like Gregg Popovich. A player who shoots well, likes to move the ball, and doesn’t force things is the prototype for success in his ever-successful system.
This gives San Antonio another solid talent to cultivate behind the scenes, with the likes of Dejounte Murray and Nikola Milutinov joining him as recent draft picks with real futures in the rotation some time down the road.
Ojeleye has some question marks heading to the NBA draft, but has put up the type of dominant second-half surge that makes him a very real option in the first round come this year’s draft, should he make that commitment. At 6-7, he’s another undersized four, but lacks the same lateral quickness as guys like Miles Bridges — which hinders his defensive potential when switching to the three spot full time.
Regardless, though, he has most certainly proven his worth as somebody who can help a team win based on energy and physicality alone. He’s built like pickup truck, boasting a strong frame and excellent body width that helps him carve out position around the basket and body up bigger opposition at an extremely high level. He’s relentless on the boards, and couples that with a defensive aggression that could help cancel out some of his imperfections.
Ojeleye has also shown some nice upside offensively, excelling as a hard-nosed cutter and an improved shot creator around the basket and in the short mid-range game. He’s also a 42.4 percent 3-point shooter on 4.9 attempts per game. If a physical specimen of his ilk is able to translate into an immediate shooting threat at the next level, that’s a massive boost in his stock.
Next: We Talkin' Bout Podcast Ep. 29
There are some impurities with Ojeleye as a prospect, but the Jazz — with their second first round pick — get some more depth in the frontcourt, while bringing in an a competitor of the highest degree. Ojeleye has grit, and boasts the skills and athletic tools to back it up. Utah has no problem pulling the trigger on him to end the primary round of draftees.