Nik Stauskas: Year Three Progress Report and Comparison

Three years into his NBA career, how has Nik Stauskas shaped up, and what is his future in the NBA and with the Philadelphia 76ers?

Nik Stauskas is a tremendously difficult player to evaluate for the Philadelphia 76ers. Let’s get that out of the way quickly.

Once thought to have star potential, Nik’s narrative has taken a variety of turns over his three-year career. A deeply disappointing rookie campaign with the Sacramento Kings left many thinking that Stauskas would become another cog in the Kings’ carousel of draft-bust shooting guards.

Expectations resurrected after the Sixers rescued him from the Kings, but a lackluster and inconsistent two-year stint leaves Nik exactly as he was two years ago: a big question mark.

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Despite plenty of lingering uncertainty about what Nik may look like as a finished product (or if he will reach that point), let’s use some stats and film to provide context and see what we should expect from Sauce Castillo.

The Negatives: Lost in the Sauce

The negatives for Nik begin with the fact that he does not appear physically suited for the role he plays.

One of Stauskas’ most redeeming attributes is that he’s more than just a 3-point shooter (even though he shot just 32 percent over his first two seasons). But how much value can Stauskas really bring, outside of his 3-point shooting?

Among 58 guards averaging at least 4.7 drives per game, Stauskas has the fourth lowest field goal percentage (42.3 percent), the eleventh highest pass percentage (42.4 percent), and the sixth highest turnover percentage (8.9 percent).

Let’s dissect those stats a bit further. The anemically low field goal percentage on drives speaks primarily to his physical tools. Others among the bunch, such as Emmanuel Mudiay, are plagued by lack of touch and finishing ability.

Such is not the case for Sauce Castillo. He is crafty with solid touch, but physically outmatched. He’s not laterally quick enough to shake defenders consistently, or explosive enough to finish over them.

Stauskas’ strangely high pass percentage speaks to those same physical limitations but bodes even worse for contextual purposes.

Remember the scorching hot takes about T.J. McConnell’s refusal to shoot on drives? That Steve Nash times a thousand tendency to dribble in a loop around the paint? McConnell’s pass percentage is just four percentage points above Stauskas.

Among the top 14 players in pass percentage on drives, the average height of those players is half an inch over six feet. Stauskas checks in at 6-6. Stauskas’ assist percentage is also the lowest of that bunch at 11 percent.

But the difficulty in evaluating Stauskas lies primarily in the task of discerning whether his struggles are caused by physical limitations or mental sources.

Many of his drives are plagued by a sheer timidity that leads to poor footwork.

Positive note: this problem can easily be fixed with proper footwork. A jump-stop into a two footed layup is a guaranteed finish and likely and-one. Now back to the negatives.

But Stauskas should have this footwork mastered and instinctual by now. His lack of progress is concerning. Three years in, the game seems to not have slowed down much for Stauskas.

Watch any Sixers game, and you will instantly notice that Stauskas is maddeningly inconsistent.

The difficult plays seem easy, and, well, it’s not that the easy plays seem difficult. It’s that he never seems to put himself in a position to cash in easy plays. This is a recipe for wildly inconsistent play, as evidenced by his month-by-month splits.

Projection:

Nik’s slow development is concerning. Below is a chart illustrating the average win shares a player has by age. Notice the sky-high jump for 23 year olds, usually in their third or fourth year in the league.

Nik is quite literally behind the curve in his development.

Note: This graphic applies to ALL players. It is wrong to assume that all types of players should develop at the same rate. More on that later.

Nik still has time, but the clock is running out. Lack of significant progress by next year could spell the end of Sauce Castillo in Philadelphia with the emergence of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and possibility of multiple draft picks.

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The safety net for Stauskas’ game has been the fact that even if his shooting fails to garner elite results, he can contribute in a variety of different ways.

But that safety net is not as sturdy as it seems. Stauskas will have to vastly refine his footwork and mental approach to his drives in order for it to become a true asset to his game. Only then will he ride the curve up to his expected development.

As for now, make no mistake. Nik is not much more than a shooter.

The Positives: Nik Rocks!

Let’s start with his shooting.

Nik has made great strides in his shot this year. He’s up to 38 percent on the year, and ranks sixth in percentage in the NBA (between Klay Thompson and Kyle Lowry) on “wide open” 3-point attempts at 47 percent on 2.1 attempts per game.

As the Sixers continue to add more offensive creators to shift Nik’s burden away from attacking the basket and towards nailing wide open jump shots, Nik’s value and output will continue to increase.

My one recommendation on Stauskas’ jump shot is that he introduce more of a “sway.” The sway is a coach’s way of teaching shooters to let their feet drift forward underneath them as they shoot in order to give them more lift on their shot. In other words, Stauskas is far too straight up and down at times.

Okay, I know. Enough with the critiques. This is the positive section. I’ll stop there. But if there’s a positive to be taken away it’s that this incredibly simple change could make a 38 percent shooter even better.

The next positive for Stauskas is a gene-deep feel for the game. He knows what reactions will result from his actions, and he excels at exploiting that.

I’m a big fan of Brett Brown using Stauskas off hand-offs to survey the middle of the floor.

The hand-off, spot-up heavy role leads me into a convenient archetypal comparison for Stauskas.

That would be our very own Nik Stauskas and current Los Angeles Clipper J.J. Redick.

Redick’s role represents the long-term goal for Stauskas. The similarities abound.

Hand-offs account for 14.7 percent of Nik’s offensive possessions, seventh most often in the NBA (min. 50 possessions). The highest such percentage? J.J. Redick at 19 percent.

The only discrepancy in their overall offensive distribution is that Stauskas trades his solid chunk of pick and roll possessions for Redick’s off-screen possessions.

The similarities do not end there.

Remember the win share development chart? Redick’s career arc bodes very well for Stauskas’ development.

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For borderline-athlete shooters who suddenly face the adjustment of having defenders close out on them faster and harder than ever before, the learning curve may be a bit steeper.

Redick, the 11th overall pick in the 2006 NBA draft, took seven years to reach his full potential. Patience may be the name of the game for Nik as well.

Projection:

Earlier in the piece I touched on Stauskas’ inconsistency. Several possible mental roadblocks exist that keep Stauskas from performing at his highest potential. His month-by-month splits support this hypothesis even further. His hot streaks are hot and his cold streaks get very cold.

For example, Stauskas led the NBA in eFG percentage through the month of November. Now? He doesn’t crack the top 150.

The mental impact is further evidenced by his starter versus bench stats.

The sheer amount of disparity between shooting percentages (both 3 and overall) suggests, to me, that it’s a mental comfort thing.

Strangely enough, I’m encouraged by Nik’s inconsistency.

None of this suggests that Nik is a mentally weak or downtrodden person or player. Rather, his nerves have created bad habits that tend to disappear when given proper or comfortable circumstances.

Therefore, I’m optimistic about Nik’s long-term outlook. The inconsistencies, mental mishaps, and inauspicious role should pass with experience, comfort, and support.

Like Redick, Stauskas might have a slower path to success. But his shooting can buy him (playing) time until he develops his less central aspects of his game. He has a slick feel for the game and has craftiness to work himself out of tough situations. I am inclined to believe that those attributes will manifest themselves positively in one way or another.

Even if Stauskas’ ability to attack the rim improves only marginally, he is an elite shooter. Everything beyond shooting is gravy.

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Comfort and confidence is the name of the game for Nik. His nervous and rushed game likely dates back to his difficult rookie year with the Kings. But maybe, just maybe, Stauskas can use the J.J. Redick path to success by shedding the negativity and establishing himself as the elite shooter that he is.