Setting Rookie Expectations for Next Season

Philadelphia 76ers fans may have high hopes for their rookies next season, but they may be wise to check some of those hopes.

The Philadelphia 76ers could have a handful of rookies coming in to the team’s upcoming regular season, and the expectations surrounding those rookies may be noticeably high.

Ben Simmons is the most obvious name, the top overall pick from this year’s draft that had to sit out his entire first season due to injury. The Sixers will also have their own lottery pick, and the chances of them getting the Los Angeles Lakers pick grows higher and higher every day (the Lakers pick conveys to Philadelphia if it falls outside of the top three).

On top of that, the team has Furkan Korkmaz stashed overseas, and a whopping five second round draft picks. Those second rounders likely will not all be used, and there’s a good chance Korkmaz stays overseas for longer before Philadelphia decides it’s smart to bring him over.

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Still, at least two rookies should debut next season, and three rookies are looking likely. The expectations for these rookies are quite high from the fans in Philadelphia. When it comes to other teams and their rookies, fans typically expect a slow start as the young players adjust to the high level of play that comes along with the NBA. Seasons like Buddy Hield are expected, but Malcolm Brogdon-like seasons are wished upon.

The Sixers, however, have been different, especially this season. Joel Embiid put his name in the conversation with all-time greats in just 31 games — albeit after two full missed seasons — and is already respected as one of the league’s best centers. He is in the top three centers in the Eastern Conference, by the opinion of most.

Dario Saric, while it took some time for him to hit his stride, is making his case as one of the leagues’ best young forwards, and his durability has been looked upon as a really great add-on to his game.

These two place really unrealistic tones and expectations on youth that will likely carry over to next season. The precedent placed by these two is unfair, because they are rare cases that certainly are not the rule when it comes to rookies in the NBA. The fact that they are on the same team, playing in front of the same fans, makes it even worse. Fans should recognize that these two players are not necessarily good gauges for what a rookie season is typically like.

The Sixers do have a more realistic rookie on their team in Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. TLC has been pretty good this season, and his roadmap follows suit with that of a more traditional rookie.

As the Sixers move forward, we can’t expect seasons like this from all the young, first year players. There are only so many minutes to go around, and because of the lack of talent previously, the Sixers were able to offer rookies 25 minutes or more per night. Moving forward, with Embiid, Saric and TLC entering their sophomore years, and other key players demanding close to 30 minutes, rookies will not be able to get starter-like or even role-player minutes right away. They will have to prove themselves in smaller sample sizes.

So, what should fans expect from their rookies?

With Ben Simmons, fans are justified in expecting a bit more than the other rookies. Simmons has been able to work with his NBA coaches and be around his teammates for a whole year now. He is expected to start almost immediately, and should be able to take advantage of those minutes. If there is anyone we can be unrealistic with, it’s Simmons.

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With the first lottery pick, whoever that ends up being, we can expect a decent amount from them, but not as much as Simmons. It will all depend really on how head coach Brett Brown decides to use that player, and how much adjusting they will need to the NBA. Overall, though, the expectations should be fairly high, just not as high as Simmons.

The second lottery pick should be expected to come off of the bench and have a much slower start than the other rookies. A trip down to the D-League may be in order as well.

The rest of the rookies, perhaps Furkan Korkmaz and any other second-round picks, should be expected to be in the D-League quite a bit. Their NBA impact will not be felt for quite a while.

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All in all, fans should just realize that what they saw with Saric and Embiid this year is not typical. These are great players who will be leading the NBA for years to come. While we certainly hope to see first year performances like that from all players, it’s just not realistic to place those hopes as expectations.