Could Missing Out on Lakers Pick Benefit Sixers?

Philadelphia 76ers fans would be ecstatic if they could get the Los Angeles’ Lakers pick in the NBA Draft. That might not be the best plan, though.

In general, if you get to choose whether or not you hold one or two lottery picks in the NBA Draft, you should choose to hold two. That makes a lot of sense. Even if you aren’t a rebuilding team, and don’t really have time to develop youth, you could trade one of those young pieces or picks away for a decent established player. For the Philadelphia 76ers, they could get two really solid lottery players that could just build onto their already decently strong core, both in this year’s draft.

Sounds good, right? It’s not often you get to draft twice within the first 14 picks of the draft. Well, it might not be what the Sixers should actually want.

The team and its fanbase doesn’t really have a choice or a way to control where they or other teams are positioned in the NBA Draft. Ping pong balls control that, and the order is randomized, with teams with the worst record having the best statistical chance at getting the top overall pick.

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The Sixers completed a trade with the Lakers that gave the Sixers a future first-round pick, but there were some protections on that pick. Last year, and this year, it was top three protected, meaning that if the pick fell in the top three overall slots, the Lakers would retain it. The Lakers retained it last year, and up until this week, it looked like there was a solid chance they would fall in the top three again this year.

The Lakers don’t tank well, though, and they keep winning even though it’s not in their best interest of their long-term plans to win. It looks like the Lakers will finish the season with the third worst record, which means they have a decent shot at getting the first overall pick, but they are teetering right on that edge of forfeiting their pick to the Sixers.

The Sixers fans should hope the Lakers keep it, though, in order to layer their youth in a way that keeps them fresh, and even spunky, if you will, even as they get more competitive.

Sure, being able to have two lottery picks this year would be awesome, but it would be kind of hard to manage. Let’s assume things go exactly according to plan, and that the Sixers get the top overall pick and select Markelle Fultz. Let’s then assume everyone is healthy.

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Here is a list of players who will be getting 25 minutes a game, at least:

• Joel Embiid
• Dario Saric
• Robert Covington
• Markelle Fultz
• Ben Simmons
• Nik Stauskas

And here’s players that should be getting at least 15 minutes per game:

• Richaun Holmes
• T.J. McConnell
• Justin Anderson
• Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
• One veteran (Gerald Henderson or Jerryd Bayless)

If you add those players up, it comes out to 225. There are only 240 minutes to go around, so that leaves 15 minutes for Brett Brown to divvy up between the remaining players. I only mentioned 11 players in this list, so there could be four other players eligible to get those 15 minutes (and maybe even more, depending on how these two-way D-League contracts will work).

While it would make sense to offer those 15 minutes to a lottery pick, that leaves no room to extend minutes for a player like Saric or Embiid without cutting somewhere else, and just makes for a tough situation to navigate. It also means three players get zero minutes.

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It might be better to just get one lottery pick this year, see how that player does, and trim the fat after next season to make room and minutes for another rookie the following year. The Sixers should be in the running for a playoff spot next season, which would mean that they won’t be in the lottery, but if they don’t get the Lakers pick this year (and the Lakers look like they will be bad again next year) then they will get it next season. The Sixers could have the best of both worlds — a taste of the playoffs, while also getting a lottery pick next year.

It also allows them to layer their youth underneath a developing core, rather than juggling a bunch of fresh faces right away. While that can have its benefits — the youth gets to develop together, and there is the warped perception that the Sixers have all the youth — it isn’t necessarily the best thing.

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Let’s not forget, too, that the Sixers can also bring over Furkan Korkmaz at some point, and they also hold some future first round picks of other teams that look like they could be in the lottery (cough, Kings, cough).

The trick is not to add as much young talent all at once, no matter how enticing that might be, and no matter how much that would prove that the process worked. The strategy should be to do it gradually, so that success can come alongside the young talent.

The fountain of youth will keep flowing for years to come. The future is bright in Philadelphia.