The Philadelphia 76ers remained patient throughout the 2016-2017 season. But if the team does not land a top three pick in the lottery, prepare for some wheeling and dealing.
The Philadelphia 76ers entered the 2016 NBA Lottery with a chance to emerge with two lottery picks, and just a 25 percent chance of the number one pick of that draft. After all, the team landed number one and lost on the chance to land a Los Angeles first round pick.
So the Philadelphia 76ers picked first, 24th, and 26th despite the hints that Bryan Colangelo was not really interest in bringing so many young players onto the roster at one time.
Once more, the Philadelphia 76ers will emerge from the 2017 NBA Lottery armed with the knowledge of their status entering the 2017 NBA Draft. Will the team choose first or seventh? After the ping pong balls drop, will the team benefit from one or two lottery picks in the 2017 NBA Draft? Will the Philadelphia 76ers swap with the Sacramento Kings this year?
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In the 2016-2017 season, the Philadelphia 76ers young players matured rapidly. Rookies Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot have all had eyebrow raising moments in the course of the season. It seems like the strategy of taking what the NBA had to offer to this team was the right strategy.
And it was.
Winds of Change
But things have changed. This is no longer a new team to team president Bryan Colangelo. And after all the recent upheavals, I suspect that events are far more likely to turn out differently.
Those suspicions gained confidence after reading a recent article by Tom Moore of the Bucks County Courier Times. In fact, it was the interview with Colangelo himself which dispersed the fog of the future.
"“If we’re going to maintain flexibility going forward, that’s not a bad thing, either. I think part of that will be determined on whether or not we have one or two draft picks in the top 10 this year."
Damn You Lottery! Damn You All To Hell!
So the lottery defines more than where the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2017 NBA Draft. In fact, the lottery will dictate the team’s aggressiveness in the trade and free agent markets.
After all, this is not a team with patience any longer. The team is no longer about letting player chemistry and cohesion happen naturally. If the ping pong balls do not fall the 76ers way this year, look for the team’s front office to take matters into their own hands.
Win Now
Let’s ignore the 2016-2017 success or failure for just a moment. I’d like to take you back in time to a groundhog day 2016 interview of Jerry Colangelo. In that interview, Jerry Colangelo proclaimed the Philadelphia 76ers would be very competitive in three years. He elaborated that to mean winning playoff games.
Sir Charles In Charge
If the Philadelphia 76ers land Markelle Fultz in the 2017 NBA Draft, or two top five picks, the team will likely take those picks and roll.
But should the 76ers land just the seventh pick of the 2017 NBA Draft? You can bet that will kick Bryan Colangelo into full “trade” mode.
The Philadelphia 76ers have a 36, 39, 46 and 50 picks coming in the 2017 NBA Draft. For the first round, the team can be picking from first to seventh, plus a better than even odds of landing a Lakers first round pick from fourth to sixth.
Use ‘Em or Lose ‘Em
The real question is, will the 76ers use those picks? Unless the picks have a chance at landing NBA ready talent? The answer is probably no.
Bryan Colangelo is not exactly a fan of young NBA players. He’s worked patiently with youth in Philadelphia because the team’s future is in the hands of rookies Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and in a smaller part Dario Saric and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot.
Colangelo has no intention of infusing this roster with another youth movement. Despite the inability to get significant minutes out of several veterans this year, there have been no indications that he wants fewer senior leadership on his team. In fact, he may likely be interested in even more veterans.
Let’s Make A Deal (Theory)
For starters, let’s make two things very clear. First, trades only happen when there are two teams motivated to act in a trade scenario. If only the Philadelphia 76ers are interested in trading, nothing happens. Secondly, teams need to agree upon the value of trade picks in the NBA Draft. I’m am leaning upon the NBA draft trade value chart as portrayed by FanSided’s own Nick Restifo.
8 Points, 9 Seconds
Knowing the 76ers have 36 (.86), 39 (.74), 46 (.55) and 50 (.44), those picks packaged could land the team at an approximate equivalent pick of 16 (2.58). Now it falls to where the lottery lands the 76ers in the first round.
Trade Up Or Trade Away?
Picks 7 (5.14) and 16 (2.58) could get the team up to the 2nd (7.29) pick value of the NBA Draft. In fact, it would take the 76ers a 2nd pick (7.29) and 16 value (2.58) to even begin to offer value for the top pick of the 2017 NBA Draft (10.76)
So who holds the picks in question? Well, nobody knows the lottery pick holders until after the NBA Lottery. But the Chicago Bulls hold the 16th pick of the 2017 NBA Draft. Will they deal their first round pick for a bundle of second round picks?
Teams More Likely To Deal This Year
I have a hunch that NBA Teams will be far more likely to deal this year. And I have two reasons for that assertion:
Swarm and Sting
Reason I: No Kevin Durant sweepstakes this year.
The 2016 free agency season was all about which team would land Kevin Durant. Virtually each NBA team with the aspirations of post-season play held their cards close to the vest in hopes of landing KD in free agency. Only the Golden State Warriors succeeded, but the domino effect in free agency after the Durant signing echoed throughout the NBA.
This year, there certainly are plenty of talented players projected to be available. But there is not the same sense of “saving ourselves for KD” in the NBA this year.
The Mighty Have Fallen In The NBA
Reason II: Sacramento Kings dealing DeMarcus Cousins broke ranks with NBA Teams hoarding elite talent.
On one hand, when the Sacramento Kings dealt DeMarcus Cousins to the New Orleans Pelicans for literally a King’s ransom, the NBA dynamics changed. On the other hand, when the Los Angeles Lakers front office switched, the team finally converted from “denial” to “rebuilding”. And even the Chicago Bulls have had to deal with a dysfunctional team this year. So too have the New York Knicks entered the “too dysfunctional to believe” realm now.
There are 11 NBA teams with three or more NBA draft picks right now. Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers have the most picks with five, and the possibility of six at the conclusion of the NBA Lottery. Even NBA teams in the playoffs who are early exits year in and year out are under tremendous pressure to improve the team this season. With the highly touted 2017 NBA Draft, there will be plenty of teams seeking opportunity to draft.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
That Groundhog Day prediction of Jerry Colangelo was not a prediction at all. If reports are true, the ownership was already negotiating with Bryan Colangelo about taking over the reigns of the team.
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In the end, it was more akin to a proud pappa bragging up his boy. (My son will have) “this team very competitive in three years.” Now, Bryan Colangelo must live up to the promises of his father, Jerry Colangelo.
So what’s wrong with winning in the playoffs in three years?
Forcing Events Not Wise
Ultimately nothing, if it all works out. But forcing the issue is where mistakes happen. Multi-tasking reduces effectiveness, and if the team is so hell bent on making a deal, the risk of missing out on true NBA talent in the draft increases.
Deals under Bryan Colangelo feel “forced” so far. So under the pressure to win now, I’ve no doubt that the team has plenty of convertible assets in cap space, draft picks and talented players. If the 76ers do not land a pick in the top three this year?
In conclusion, I expect trades. Trades for better picks or trades of picks for “play now” players. Ping pong balls dictate a great deal of events in the NBA. This year, those ping pong balls may very well unleash the wheeling and dealing version of Bryan Colangelo upon the NBA.
Related Story: Sixers Are the Perfect Team to Trade With for Teams Looking to Start Rebuild
Despite the huge upside of talent in the 2017 NBA Draft, the timeline simply won’t suit Colangelo’s timetable.