Former Philadelphia 76ers player Charles Barkley does not believe analytics support resting players. Should players fly commercial?
The debate over advanced analytics seems to be a never-ending wellspring of bar room and Reddit conversations. For some people, the eye test and box scores are all they need to see a good versus bad player, but for others, only per-100 advanced metrics with overlayed shot charts will be reliable. Based on multiple rants in recent years, we can comfortably count Sir Charles anti-analytics.
Charles Barkley is probably the player who first made me fall in love with the 76ers. When Charles was drafted in 1984, he was a vertically undersized but horizontally advantaged forward. He joined a team that was one year removed from a dominating championship. I was a bit too young to fully appreciate the Doctor J era Sixers outside of seeing the highlights. When Charles arrived I was transfixed by his rebounding, aggressiveness and skill. He was the strongest, most “bull in a china shop” athlete I had ever seen.
Since those early years, Charles has remained a fascinating figure in the Philadelphia sports landscape. I believe he fits the profile of the quintessential WIP-type caller. He is brash, outspoken, often uninformed, but always compelling. When discussing the modern NBA players and rest, Charles revisited one of his favorite topics, analytics. For context, here is a vintage rant of his from 2015.
Here’s what he had to say years ago on Hinkie and his analytically minded rebuild.
"“I have a problem with the way the Sixers are running their organization right now. Listen, Howard, you know I don’t believe in that analytical crap. If LeBron James couldn’t spell cat, I want him on my team. I always tell people, give me a dumb guy that can really play. Don’t give me no smart guy.The guy [Hinkie], he came from Houston. When did Houston get good? When they went out and paid James Harden all that money and [Omer] Asik, and now they went out and got Dwight Howard. That’s got nothing to do with analytics, that’s got to do with paying really good players to come to town.”"
In retrospect, you can see that Charles attributing Houston’s rise to people like Omer Asik and Dwight Howard along with Harden, and not to “Moreyball”, I think that history has proven Charles very partially correct (Harden) but he missed significant analytics-friendly players like Patrick Beverley and Clint Capela.
This got me thinking, does Charles feel that the analytics unfairly represented his career? So I dove into some metrics on Charles Barkley the player.
"“Figures dont lie but liars will figure” – unknown"
First the counting stats
Years played 1984-2000
Points per game – 22.1 (28th all time)
Rebounds per game – 11.7 (22nd all time)
Assists per game – 3.9 (not in top 100)
Steals per game – 1.5 (not in top 100)
Blocks per game – 0.8 (not in top 100)
From this view, Charles was an all-time great player for sure, he is one of only six players in NBA History to score at least 22 points and 11 rebounds per game for an entire career.
But as you begin to layer on some advanced analytics, Charles becomes even more compelling.
First off, using just those criteria, but layering on true shooting percentage, Charles stands alone as the only player in NBA/ABA history to score 22 points and 11 rebounds per game with more than a 60 percent true shooting percentage. This essentially makes Charles the most efficient forward of all time.
Also if you look at some other advanced metrics you’ll see a totally different view of Charles as a player.
Analytics (bump.. bump.. bump bump bump)
Value over replacement player VORP – 93.5 (5th all time)
Offensive Rating – 119 (3rd all time among players having played 1000 games)
Total Rebounding percentage – 18.2 percent (5th all time)
But Resting?
According to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, player workload does correlate with injury. This paper is academic and dense, but can be distilled into the basic premise that players are at increased risk of injury based on factors such as back to backs, game speed and total games per season. Despite Charles Barkley’s insistence that players played longer, harder and traveled in less comfort in past decades, the data supports strategic resting of players.
Let’s use one of our own as an example. Allen Iverson played every game like it was his last, but averaged just 65 games per year over his 14 year career. This includes a precipitous decline of just 57 and 28 games respectively in his final two seasons in the NBA.
His doggedness and fierce competitive streak drove him to play more than 40 minutes per game for his first 12 years, but just 30 minutes per game over 28 games in his final season. Which begs the question, would someone like Allen Iverson have lasted longer in the NBA if he had taken better care of his body, and rested a bit more?
In Conclusion
Charles was clearly an elite player from an advanced metrics standpoint, so it is somewhat surprising that he is so anti-data. Charles is a great improviser on TV, and as a player he outworked his opponents consistently on the court. It appears that Charles is not overly analytical and does not feel the need to support any of his views with facts or data. Players in the modern NBA are taking the lead of players like LeBron James and taking sports science very seriously. Lebron has every intention of having a long and very lucrative career despite any of Charles’ gut feelings and Glory days nostalgic bravado.
It’s okay Charles, we still love you.