The 2017 NBA Draft Lottery takes place tomorrow night. It could possibly determine the future of the Philadelphia 76ers for the 2017-2018 season and beyond. If the 76ers don’t get the #1 pick, should they trade back?
Philadelphia 76ers Lottery Odds
To start off, let’s lay out the Philadelphia 76ers odds for lottery night. The 76ers finished the season with the 4th worst record in the NBA, so they now have the 4th best lottery odds. This gives them a 37.8 percent chance to land a top 3 pick, and a 11.9 percent chance to get the 1st overall pick in the draft.
However, the Sixers have the rights to swap picks with the Sacramento Kings in the event that the Kings jump in front of the 76ers in the draft order. As of now, the Kings have the 8th best lottery odds, and a 9.9 percent chance to land a top 3 pick.
Everybody’s focus for the past 6 months or so is whether or not the Los Angeles Lakers pick will convey. The Lakers finished the season with the 3rd worst record, or 3rd best lottery odds. In order for the pick to go to the 76ers, it will have to be outside the top 3. As of now, the Lakers have a 46.8 percent chance to land a top 3 pick. If the pick doesn’t convey this year, it becomes unprotected in 2018.
Technically, combining the Kings and 76ers lottery odds gives the 76ers a 47.7 percent chance to land a top 3 pick. Again, the Lakers have a 46.8 percent chance to keep their pick in the top 3. So, the 76ers lottery odds are higher.
Do the 76ers need to trade back?
This question depends a lot on the outcome of the lottery. There are several different scenarios to what could happen and what the 76ers need to do in regards to making their draft selections.
Scenarios In Which They Should Not Trade Back
If the 76ers somehow land the top overall pick, they should not trade back. Markelle Fultz is the best player in the draft and seems like a perfect fit in Philadelphia.
If the 76ers get the second pick and the Lakers get top overall pick, they should not trade back either. The Lakers will most likely take Lonzo Ball and the 76ers will end up with Fultz.
If the 76ers get their pick AND the Lakers pick in the top 5, they should not trade back. Two top prospects in this loaded draft class would be an amazing outcome. Plus, they have an option to trade up into the top 3 with those two picks.
Scenarios In Which They Should Trade Back
If the 76ers stay at pick #4 or move down as a result of the draft lottery, they need to seriously consider trading their pick. The drop-off of talent in this draft isn’t drastic through the top 10. They can still scoop a solid prospect plus acquire future assets by trading down a few spots here. This happens to be the only time the Sixers should trade down in this years draft.
Next: TSS 2017 NBA Draft Lottery Big Board
Wrap Up
The 2017 NBA Draft Lottery begins on Tuesday night at 8 PM ET. This event is the first of what could be a crazy offseason for the young team. I encourage all of you to tune in and see where the sixers pick(s) land. Of course, luck is in the air this year considering star rookie center Joel Embiid is representing the team at the lottery. Hopefully the ping-pong balls trust the process.