Philadelphia 76ers Jahlil Okafor, 3rd For 1st. Waddya Say, Boston?

As the Philadelphia 76ers creep towards the 2017 NBA Draft, they want Markelle Fultz. The Boston Celtics want a championship. Could Jahlil Okafor be trade key?

Right now, the Boston Celtics are in a delicious predicament. As a matter of fact, they hold the number one pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, but no top prospect is a magical fit for the team’s needs. Certainly, any prospect with huge potential upside is worth grabbing and holding onto.

The Philadelphia 76ers know that lesson all too well. Jahlil Okafor has learned that lesson too. In fact, The 76ers chose Okafor in a draft when Kistaps Porzingas was the less popular but better fit pick.  And so Boston faces selecting Markelle Fultz.

Don’t Throw A Fit

But does it make sense in the face of acquiring a better fit for the team?

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What about the chance to acquire a former top three pick and a top three drafted player in a package deal?  Is it worth it for the Boston Celtics to answer a phone call if the Philadelphia 76ers offer Center Jahlil Okafor, their 2017 NBA Draft third pick for the Boston Celtics 2017 NBA Draft first pick of the draft?

No?

Balancing An Unknown Equation

Well let’s focus on a balance of value in a moment.  In many drafts, there is the true one or two shooting stars in the draft.  For lack of a better term, that player either exists or is media manufactured. In this 2017 NBA Draft, that player has been deemed Markelle Fultz.

Air Alamo

Fultz is truly gifted. He possesses the raw combination of point and shooting guards. As such, he fits two NBA positions with one pick. On one hand, he can run the team as the primary ball handler. On the other hand, he can play equally effectively off-ball.  In fact, he can do both in the same game.

But he played 25 of 31 college games in his one and only freshman season.  In the NBA, there are three times that many games to play.

Listen Up

For now, let’s explore why the Celtics should listen to this offer.

To begin with, there have been plenty of NBA Drafts where the top overall pick was not the certainty many expected him to be. In 1984, the top pick of that draft was Houston superstar Akeem Olajuwon.  Now you might scoff and believe nobody could outvalue him.  But considering the third player selected in that draft turned out to be Michael Jordan, you may want to check that disbelief at the door.

So it happens sometimes.

Overcome Ego

Now Danny Ainge, and many fans of virtually all NBA Teams, take great pride in their NBA organization. That pride translates into “I don’t want that player everyone talked about not wanting” in this case.  But there are reasons to push that to the side and rethink that attitude.

Swarm and Sting

The Boston Celtics fans have queued in on the “Best Player Of This Draft Is Markelle Fultz” while ignoring the obvious.  Fultz will arrive to the Boston Celtics as a rookie trying to earn time among a playoff experienced team.  He won’t get the 30 plus minutes required to develop rapidly.  He missed six of the last eight NCAA games, playing just 25 games.  That does not translate into “sure thing” when considering the 82 game NBA season.

Flawed Confidence

But moreso that that. The perception of this pick is that it’s instant currency for a franchise player. Perhaps. But that value only works for distressed teams with a desire to jump start a new rebuild. The Chicago Bulls would listen to that trade for Jimmy Butler. The Indiana Pacers would listen to that trade for Paul George.  But the list of teams in that market is small enough to urge caution. Neither George nor Butler move the needle much for the Boston Celtics right now either..

And that is the mirage. The Celtics need front court help, but the passion of fans focuses on the shiniest players and prospects available.   Fools gold.

What’s In It For Boston?

Let’s start off by comparing the value of the third pick to the first pick in this NBA draft. Many years, the NBA draft is set at the top two picks and a category of “all others”.  But the 2017 NBA Draft, while it does not have many things, certainly has no shortage of depth in this draft.   And so, the search for adequate compensation begins with the exchange of two draft picks.

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Per FanSided’s Nick Restifo, the Celtics pick has a relative value of 7.78  and the 76ers pick has a relative value of 6.82.  That’s due to the NBA trade exchange using the “smoothed value”.  The difference of .96 can be further reduced by tossing in one of the four second round picks.  For that purpose, the teams need to agree on which picks.  If the 76ers toss in the 46th pick and take Boston’s 56th pick in return, that adds .27 more to Boston’s share of the pot.  What remains is  a relative value of .7, or the equivalent of a second round draft pick.

Markelle Is Tradeable Currency For Boston, and not just for NBA All Star

Does Boston want to deal?  Yes yes yes, the arguments of “no way, Markelle Fultz is a franchise changing talent in the NBA!” are already ringing in my ear. But at the third pick of this NBA draft, the Celtics truly lose the opportunity for two players out of the entire class of 2017.  At this point, many NBA teams are falling in love with Kansas star Josh Jackson

Is Boston one of them? Well, the team is loaded in the back court, and needs front court help. How do they view the play of Jackson?

Now for the player component

The only trade chip which the Philadelphia 76ers would part with and the Boston Celtics had expressed interest in previously is center Jahlil Okafor. If you are one of many fans who views Jahlil Okafor’s value in the range of snack foods, stop reading.

Hoops Habit

He is a truly talented basketball player out of his natural element.  He plays back to basket post game offense, much like the old school version of yesteryear. In fact, he is a much better fit in the Boston Celtics.

Michael DePrisco argued that point persuasively in his article over at Hardwood Houdini.  While he isn’t all in on Okafor, he argues the point that Okafor brings need big body offense to the team. The other major point is that salary cap flexibility.

Double Coverage

Adding Okafor gives the Celtics options to deal Horford in the hopes of landing another big ticket player.  If the Celtics don’t deal Horford, Okafor becomes a great 6th man option to kick start the Celtics scoring.

Boston doesn’t need spacers for Okafor. The team average of 37.0 percent from three-point range is sixth best in the NBA.   That clears plenty of room out of the paint for big man to operate.

Now about this trade. In the exchange, Jahlil Okafor is contributing the value of a high second round draft pick. Not  his round one third pick of the 2015 NBA Draft origination. And he’s a player who scores double digits in the NBA on a bad lineup.

In fact, it’s out there now. At least until draft night. Once the picks are made, it’s highly unlikely any deals will be made between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics.

Behind Pick Number Three

And while you mull it over, consider this some fans are beginning to believe that Josh Jackson is the top value in this draft too:

On one hand, you see, the reason Sam Hinkie seemed to walk away from the NBA draft with move absolute value in other teams is that he embraced the fact that he could be wrong about a player.

On the other hand, if the Boston Celtics are open-minded about that possibility, then there is enough common ground to work out a deal.

Ultimately, the key is that both teams must possess an objective understanding of value.  In this draft, there are more than one prospects with high upside.  But there is a perception of great falloff in talent due to NBA draft history. Hinkie knew just how to convert that kinetic energy into draft picks.

Can Boston do the same?

Uncertainty Comes IN NBA Draft

Guessing the career of an NBA prospect in the draft is where the true “lottery” system kicks in. If you see Markelle Fultz’s NBA career as a certain NBA All Star in a Boston Celtics uniform, then use the pick and add to the back court wealth.

Valley of the Suns

But if you revisit the value in this NBA Draft, you learn that this is a great group of NBA high ceiling players throughout the lottery picks.  Revisit the Fultz vs. Ball contest. Understand that 19 year old Markelle Fultz will enter the NBA as a rookie, with plenty to learn and absorb.  So why am I proposing this trade just days before the draft?

Fultz Value Far Greater In Philly

Well, the fact is that the Philadelphia 76ers are set up perfectly for the 2017 NBA Draft, and Markelle Fultz is a rather comfy fit to the current needs of the team. Ultimately, the selection of Markelle Fultz does improve the Phialdelphia 76ers team much greater than that of the Boston Celtics.

After all, the Boston Celtics sole purpose with the top pick of the 2017 NBA Draft is to maximize improving their team. Coincidentally, that is the goal of all NBA teams.  But more than that, there is the need to understand fits are different, value is different.

Next: Philadelphia 76ers Cannot Trust 2017 NBA Draft

If Danny Ainge does not see value in the 3rd, 46th picks plus center Jahlil Okafor for the 1st and 57th picks in the 2017 NBA Draft, so be it.  But I’ll start the discussion by putting it out there. Philadelphia 76ers Jahlil Okafor, 3rd and some change For 1st. Waddya Say, Boston?