The Sixer Sense
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Lonzo Ball’s fit with the Philadelphia 76ers

By Michael Bronson

Mar 4, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Lonzo Ball (2) signals in the second half against the Washington State Cougars at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 4, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Lonzo Ball (2) signals in the second half against the Washington State Cougars at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports /
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With “The Trade”, their is next to no chance. But Lonzo Ball‘s strengths and weaknesses make him a perfect point guard to play with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid .  History will judge the outcome.  In another reality, Ball  would be the best fit for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Markell Fultz and Josh Jackson are the top two players on my Philadelphia 76ers draft board. And with the trade for Fultz, the first pick of the draft to the Sixers means Markelle Fultz, and no other.

But if no trade, the Celtics pick Fultz. That means the Los Angeles Lakers select Jackson. Thus, Lonzo Ball should be the Philadelphia 76ers’ pick.  Since history will be the judge, let’s explore that scenario.

Lonzo Ball is easier to fit around Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid than any player not named Markelle Fultz.  Ball’s incredible ability to make any pass and improve his teammates with this skill is similar to Simmons’ ability.  Therefore,  it’s understandable to believe that drafting Ball would be a mistake. But Ball cannot drive to the basket and nor get off a spectrum of good shots.  Still, I believe that Ball fits much better than many expect.

Long Range Marksman

On one hand, Ball made 41 percent of his 194 attempted three-pointers.  On the other hand, he can make his shot in catch-and-shoot situations. To elaborate, he can score when one of his teammates passes him the ball and shoots it almost immediately.  That is a shot that most young point guards struggle with.  Rookie guards are used to handling the ball majority of the time and shooting off the dribble.

Despite decent ball handling, Ball lacks the quickness to consistently drive past his defenders in college.  With that, it falls to logic that struggle follows him into the NBA.

Furthermore, the percentage of a player’s shots in which he draws a foul is a good indicator on how good he is at getting to the basket.   Players are fouled when they’re attempting a dunk or layup than taking a mid-range or three-point shot.

Ball Falls Short At Foul Line

Ball went to the free throw line in only 29 percent of his shots. In  contrast, Ball’s percentage is not in the same league as the other top point guards in the upcoming draft. Fultz went to the free throw line on 38 percent of all of his shots, De’Aaron Fox 47 percent, and Dennis Smith 48 percent.

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Playing on a team with center Joel Embiid (went to the free throw line on 57 percent of his shots last season) and Simmons (went to the free throw line on 77 percent of his shots during his only season at LSU), there’s no need for a point guard that excels at getting to the basket. For that matter, what role will Lonzo Ball play?

Flaw to Asset

While this flaw in Lonzo’s game would be a big problem on a team that needs him to be their top scorer, this weakness could be a strength for the Sixers.

As a center Embiid will spend a lot of time near the basket and Simmons can be counted on to either pass the ball or get as close to the basket as possible. That means Ball’s bad shooting won’t limit the offense too much.

Fox and Smith would make the opposing defense’s job easier by also being expected to be near the basket most the time.  That simply allows the opposing team to  ignore the three-point line and  converge around the basket.  In a Pace Space Pass offense, that is the worst scenario for the Sixers’ top players to score.

Ball Artillery

On one hand, Ball would be expect to spend most of his time at or near the three-point line, giving both Embiid and Simmons more room to operate. On the other hand, Ball would basically be the Sixers’ go to three-point shooter that happens be one of the best passers in the league.

One Sixers’ starting lineup would have Ball at point guard, Robert Covington at shooting guard, Simmons at small forward, Dario Saric at power forward, and Embiid at center. In this lineup the team plays mediocre defense with an elite perimeter defender in Covington, an elite shot blocker and defensive anchor in Embiid, and a player that has the size and lateral quickness to become a great defender in Simmons. What this starting lineup really does is surround Simmons with four average-to-good three-point shooters and gives the Sixers a shot at being a top ten offense next season.

Next: Sterling Brown makes sense as a mid-to-late second rounder

Lonzo Ball will never be as good or better than Stephen Curry like his father LaVar believes.  He is unlikely to be better than Embiid or Simmons.  But if fates decreed he fell to the Sixers,  he could be the ideal point guard for a team built around Embiid and Simmons.