Should Lonzo Ball be favored over Fultz, Simmons for ROTY?

The early Rookie of the Year odds project Lonzo Ball as the favorite in 2018. Should he be rated higher than the Philadelphia 76ers’ rookies.

It’s way too early to be talking about the Rookie of the Year race. With trade season, free agency and two-thirds of the regular season left before we have a concrete understanding on the discussion, it’s almost trivial to begin taking current projections with any sense of tangible seriousness. But according to the sports betting site Bovada, neither Markelle Fultz nor Ben Simmons are the presumptive favorites — it’s Lonzo Ball.

NBA Rookie of the Year odds, per @BovadaLV:

1. Lonzo Ball: 5/2
2. Ben Simmons: 3/1
3. Markelle Fultz: 5/1
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) June 23, 2017

After the media firestorm unleashed by LaVar, Lonzo ended up with his team of destiny in Los Angeles. While chronically flawed in a handful of areas, there’s no denying the fact that Ball is indeed a special player. Few players enter the league with a remotely comparable basketball I.Q., while his court vision is already advanced well beyond most professional guards. He’s capable of operating in multiple sets as well, excelling most as a slasher and spot-up shooter when looking to score in the halfcourt setup.

But dubbing Lonzo the early favorite is a risky bet. His lack of a projectable shot off the dribble limits what he can do in isolation, while his burst isn’t necessarily as quick as other guards around him when trying to get to the rim. He was already a limited scorer in college, and those limitations are only going to manifest more clearly at the next level.

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In today’s league, it’s difficult to manage the game as a point guard who can’t score on an individual basis. Ball finds plenty of lanes as a slasher, and actually works best alongside other ball handlers — we’re looking at you, D’Angelo Russell — and the Lakers don’t have much reliability in that facet. He can share the floor with Jordan Clarkson on occasion, but their stark lack of depth limits the manners in which they can use Lonzo in his strongest areas.

Ball also won’t have the shooting needed to produce the same endlessly-flowing offense he did while at UCLA. Execution will be better, but by NBA standards, their scoring simply isn’t enough. Luke Walton‘s system will be tailored to Ball’s transition-oriented game and generational vision on the exterior, but the talent level that accompanies him needs to be higher in order to maximize his talents.

He doesn’t beat teams one-on-one. He beats teams by upping the performance of those around him, and L.A. may no be able to keep pace with the Philadelphia 76ers in that regard.

Fultz and Simmons differ entriely. While Simmons has his own glaring weakness as a shooter, the offensive talent around him is far superior in the form of Embiid and Fultz. He’ll be more capable of leveraging his generational playmaking to his advantage, as he’ll be surrounded by more tangible talent in a Sixers offense that promotes consistent movement in it’s own right.

Simmons also has more scoring touch than Ball does around the rim as well. While not a dynamic or overtly willing scorer at all times, he has the physical tools needed to get into the paint and create his own offense when needed. He shows off nice touch with both hands, while his floater is equally as effective as his mini-fadeaways around the low block.

Ball doesn’t have that.

Fultz in and of himself is an entirely separate entity. His offensive repertoire is almost devoid of issues, with three level scoring touch and excellent production in the pick-and-roll heading what is one of the most advanced offensive games we’ve seen entering the league in quite some time. His body control off the drive in nearly unheralded, while his jerky ball handling and smooth jumper allows him to create space and knock down shots from multiple spots on the floor.

He’s a 41.3 percent shooter from deep to boot, giving Brett Brown somebody who can create for himself while also meshing seamlessly alongside the other two cornerstones in the Sixers’ rotation. Fultz, like Simmons, will remain focal points in Philadelphia, as they’ll likely work out some balance as the two main ball handlers.

While not as isolated in terms of quality talent as Ball is on the Lakers’ current roster — although the recent addition of Brook Lopez certainly gives them some firepower — both Fultz and Simmons will be placed into a better position to succeed early on.

Next: 2018 ROTY Award is Fultz's or Simmons' to lose

Depending on the outcome of a potential Paul George deal, the Sixers are on track to win more games that L.A. while Fultz and Simmons should have more statistically relevant seasons. Ball’s too limited on a team that’s not suited for his immediate success to be the outright favorite for Rookie of the Year. Not before we’ve seen his game translate to the next level.