The Philadelphia 76ers are too pragmatic to believe in perfection. But despite all that, Markelle Fultz is as close to a perfect fit as we dare project. What if we are wrong?
The fans of Philadelphia sports are quite familiar with the phrase “waiting for the other shoe to drop”. It’s how events seem to transpire in Philadelphia. A player on a great surprising run falls to injury and never comes back. A sure-fire talent never delivers. A player who shows tremendous potential never puts it all together. It happens to every team in every sport. The Philadelphia 76ers are just one more professional sports team.
But in recent years, the Philadelphia 76ers received more than a fair share of misfortune. Injury, personnel changes, draft picks beating the odds NOT to convey. You name it, it’s happened to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Jinx
And then there is the jinx. Name a player on a positive streak, and the very utterance jinxes the player. You know the superstition. Nobody discusses the no-hitter while pitches continue to be thrown. Nobody cites the quarterback completions without interceptions without fear of the next pass resulting in an interception.
And so, it works both ways, I presume. So the theory is, if I can name all the things that COULD go wrong for Markelle Fultz this year, I jinx it from happening. Think of this as “reverse prognostication”. Okay, here goes nothing.
Ten ways Markelle Fultz fails to fit Philadelphia 76ers
There are any number of ways Markelle Fultz fails as a Philadelphia 76ers. Let’s name the ways:
I. Injury
II. Can’t earn playing time
III. Poor Shooting percentage
IV. Too many ball handlers
V. Can’t defend
VI. Bothered by vocal Philadelphia Fans
VII. Too young
VIII. No team chemistry
IX. Uncoachable
X. Too impatient
Okay. That should do it. Now lets examine each. Then we’ll give suppport why this could happen, followed by why it won’t happen.
I. Injury
There is no way to prevent 100 percent of the injuries in the NBA. If a player is doing what he needs to do, he will risk injury. Most injuries are bruises, strains, and scrapes. But there is always the risk of something more serious.
Right now, the frequency of serious injuries has reached its apex with the team. In both of the past two season, the Philadelphia 76ers have had to turn to the NBA for relief with an emergency “16th player”. A 16th player is approved on an NBA team when the team suffers injuries to five players. The fact that one-third of the team was injured simultaneously in the past two seasons.
That trend cannot sustain, can it?
Hope knee holds up
Well, here comes top pick Markelle Fultz, and yes he had a knee injury in college. In fact, it kept him out of six of the last eight games. That included a vital PAC-12 tournament to end the season. The cause? An ambiguous reference to a sore knee. A coach that talked in riddles about expectations and outcomes, and simply dug a hole under his star player as a result.
Let’s face the facts. The knee is a concern. No NBA team ignored the knee in the vetting process. Clearly, the outcome of constant scrutiny resulted in the “good to go” conclusion from virtually all medical professionals tapped in the evaluation.
But there is that pattern of injuries on the Philadelphia 76ers, right? So nothing is a certainty.
II. Can’t earn playing time
Markelle Fultz was not likely to have much playing time on the Boston Celtics roster. But what happens if Jerryd Bayless is the second coming of Allen Iverson? (don’t @ me, this is hyperbole) What happens if Ben Simmons “gels” with Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. What happens if the team retains Gerald Henderson and Nik Stauskas, and Markelle Fultz is suddenly the fourth player on the depth chart.
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That’s never going to happen, is it?
Well unlikely or not, the possibility exists. The bare truth of the matter is that the Philadelphia 76ers have yet to see Ben Simmons in a true NBA game. Jerryd Bayless for more than three games. Joel Embiid beyond 31 games.
Who are these Philadelphia 76ers?
The fans of the Philadelphia 76ers have yet to see 60 percent of last years starters play together. And now the team is adding another top pick. I love Markelle Fultz. His play is electrifying. But he has some holes in his play that we will discuss very shortly.
As he adjusts to the NBA, familiarizing himself to teammates and coaches, he will lose focus on the game he loves. It’s natural. NBA rookies do not come out of the shoot and deliver game leading offense and show stopping defense. It takes time. While Fultz is adjusting to everything around him, head coach Brett Brown may limit the variables. Will he throw Fultz to play 30 minutes if he is still learning plays and schemes? So if Fultz is not lightning fast in adjusting, do not be alarmed if he eases into progressively more playing time.
III. Poor Shooting percentage
Washington Basketball point guard Markelle Fultz ran that team’s offense. Not he must participate in the Philadelphia 76ers offense. that is a huge change for the young man. He goes from driver to … passenger.
Everything we’ve seen on film in his season with the Washington Huskies suggests he can handle it. On one hand, he shared the ball handling with teammate guard David Crisp. On the other hand, he initiated ball movement that froze defenders in their tracks. In fact he, or an open shooter, made the shot.
Air Alamo
Now, he will facilitate, but not drive, the offense. His role changes dramatically at this level. He will be the off-ball guard who sets up and waits for the ball. Can he shoot accurately without the orb in his his possession for long periods of time?
Foul Foul Shooting
The book on Markelle Fultz is already written. If he has the ball, foul him. It’s just that simple. By doing so, the defender takes him away from a 40 percent or better clip at the three point line, and converts it to a 64.9 percent accuracy at the one-point line.
Until that free-throw approaches 80 percent or better, he will be sent to the line frequently. And that is just the beginning. Markelle Fultz is a one-and-done 19 year-old rookie, who is entering the league of LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and any number of childhood idles. There is no way to remove the excitement of stepping onto the basketball court with these star players. Nor would I want to. They played, and he was drawn to their sport. Shutting down that awe will be a learned response, after several not-so-memorable performances. Entering the big leagues is easier than earning the big leagues.
IV. Too many ball handlers
Once again, Washington Basketball point guard Markelle Fultz ran that team’s offense. The Philadelphia 76ers are committed to Ben Simmons running the team’s offense. And so, that sounds easy, right?
But what is the first thing you do with next to no time to react? You go with your instincts. And right now, Markelle Fultz’s instincts are to move that ball up the court. And it’s natural for him to do so.
Meshing
But processing the play real time is one thing. Meshing with an offense of fast moving passing and pace is another. Markelle Fultz is one of the NCAA best at that fast paced ball-movement offense. At some point, he will likely be one of the NBA’s best. But initially, he will need to relearn the feel of the team, tendencies and fits.
When Ben Simmons is on the bench? You can expect some point guard return to the play of Markelle Fultz. It will be curious to see how Fultz interacts on court with Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, T.J. McConnell, Nik Stauskas, and even Jerryd Bayless. Those dynamics must be worked out in game like situations.
So it’s a variable. and there is still more to discuss
V. Can’t defend
Markelle Fultz was not a primary defender in NCAA basketball. In fact, the dig on former Washington Basketball coach Lorenzo Romar‘s tactics was the lack of solid basketball scheming. While that lack of definitive coaching form did not hinder Markelle Fultz’s NBA appeal, there are plenty of questions whether he developed fully in his year with the Washington Huskies.
Air Alamo
Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown is very gifted at developing rookies into NBA players. He does this by allowing them to make mistakes, and then coaching them to the better alternatives. To a fan, it can be a painfully slow and tedious process. But over time, he has proven the method to be incredibly effective.
Fultz Needs Coaching
Now Markelle Fultz arrives as the next “coach me up, coach!” project. All the while, Fultz has incredible foot and had speed, perfect attributes to become a great NBA defender. But he is not there yet.
He will need to be coached into it. Markelle Fultz needs Brett Browns coaching. He got this far on talent and perseverance. To climb the next slope, he needs great coaching, great facilities, and great analytics. What a coincidence, the Philadelphia 76ers score major marks on all three categories.
Markelle Fultz is the epitome of talented rookie envisioned by Brett Brown and Sam Hinkie all those years ago. A young “sky is the limit” NBA novice who is the perfect clay for the perfect development. He will ultimately become Coach Brown’s greatest coaching achievement, or his greatest failure.
VI. Bothered by vocal Philadelphia Fans
To the surprise of noone, no NBA player enjoys being booed by their home fans. But few Philadelphia 76ers have escaped the experience. On one hand, some embrace the passion and at it to their own. On the other hand, some tune out the noise, and simply listen to their inner voice. In still others, some hear the boos that inevitably will rain down from the stands, and it alters the player’s perspective.
Pushing yourself as hard as you can can make a professional athlete vulnerable to the noise around them. Unless the player “gets” the fans as a tough love group, it can derail the player off the tracks.
Boos sting
The third year veteran Jahlil Okafor is nowhere near the enthusiastic “world is my oyster” rookie he was when he was drafted third by the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2015 NBA Draft. Now he has heard the boos. Now he knows the constant vigilance fans of Philadelphia sports have on their players. No plays off. No excuses. Much like a Jedi master teaching a padawan, Philadelphia fans demand “Do, or do not. There is no try”.
That runs completely counter to the way to truly fully develop a rookie. Embrace mistakes as learning lessons. Chin up after a bad night, as now a player knows how far they have to go in training. The only player rumored to never have heard boos in his career in Philadelphia is the legendary Julius Erving, or “Dr. J”. Think of all the legendary players who called Philadelphia home, and the sheer magnitude of the fans passion is nearly immeasurable.
It’s only a matter of time until it happens. What happens next is up to Markelle Fultz.
VII. Too young
Similar to Jahlil Okafor, Markelle Fultz arrives to the NBA at the ripe old age of 19. That is a very young age to deal with the finances of millions of dollars of annual earnings. New city, new job, new lifestyle. And all the while, instant celebrity.
It’s a lot to process. At 19 years of age, there is not much wisdom or experience to use to decypher it all either. So Markelle Fultz will rely upon trusted friends and loved ones.
Mature 19 year-old
Now, don’t get me wrong. He is a very mature 19 year-old. In fact, in many interviews, he sounds as though he is a senior graduating from college. He has a patient humility that is incredibly rare for a young top national athlete.
Still, until now he was running on a limited budget. Money changes everything. With big paychecks comes big expectations. New car, new clothes, caring for family. Expenses pile up quickly. After a while, money management can be as distracting as all other new aspects of his basketball career combined. Hopefully, he remains grounded when the real money starts coming in.
VIII. No team chemistry
Let’s face it, this scenario is as unlikely with this roster as possible. But not everyone meshes. Joel Embiid is the clear leader on this team. He is the social media entertainer. He is the voice calling out opponents and uplifting teammates. After all is said and done, the team’s future has been hitched to the man called Embiid.
Daily Knicks
But the arrival of Ben Simmons and now Markelle Fultz could offer an alternative route to a championship. If the pair can forge a solid backcourt tandem, then the team becomes vitally dangerous to the NBA despite the health of Joel Embiid.
Gate keeping important
If that happens this year? Who knows how it will affect the team. Does the team readjust to a center-centric offense to one that pummels opponents from the three-point line? Is there a likelihood that the success of small ball is simply too great to ignore? Right now, the team is building around the players on the current roster. What if the team has the inroads on a seasoned quality NBA veteran?
We’ve witnessed the meltdowns on the Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks. Fueled by an influx of new free agents whose former team culture did not mesh with their new team. As the team shops for the right NBA free agent, the risks of getting the wrong free agent(s) can be devastating.
Just one more variable to keep an eye on.
IX. Uncoachable
If Markelle Fultz cannot be coached by Brett Brown, then the entire NBA is wrong about him. The unanimous consensus of virtually anyone who talked to, assessed, scouted, or mentioned Fultz concluded that he was indeed a very coachable prospect.
But it remains speculation.
While Coach Brown is one of the best coaches for new players joining the NBA, he is not infalliable. He was less than pleased with former center Nerlens Noel placed himself before team needs. He was heartbroken as the team parted with young players who worked their tails off for an NBA shot.
Player coach relationship
Coach Brown has learned to have an arm’s length distance from players in some regards. He is friend, mentor, counselor, but also disciplinarian. And it’s that discipline, required in all successful professional sports team, which becomes the variable. Discipline is needed to get a young athlete’s attention, to add a downside to the equation.
Endless praise soon loses value. At times, any athlete needs that coach’s wake-up call to turn the corner. Some respond to subtle redirection. Others require a more direct approach. In either case, a wise player accepts coaching as a component to improvement. However, sometimes, it doesn’t turn out that way.
X. Too impatient
Greatness takes time. At 19 years of age, a month can feel like forever. As people age, time seems to speed up. And that’s how it goes for everyone: athlete and non-athlete alike.
Hoops Habit
A one-and-done basketball player is eager to make his mark in NBA circles. And it’s that eagerness which propels him to the NBA which becomes a huge detractor once he gets there. If you have ever worked an extended period of longer hours at work, it feels weird to go back to normal time.
Setting a pace to life is hard to break. That’s why vacations can be difficult sometimes. How do you decelerate from 100 miles per hour to a crawl overnight?
Time heals, but hurry up!
That’s what is happening right now with Fultz. He is descending from the top of the NBA draft to the bottom of the NBA in terms of experience. Without that experience, he is simply running on the talent fuel in his gas tank.
The NBA is already a fast-moving game. Now, everything has changed at incredible speed. Slow down. Patience is a life jacket now. While some players flash brilliance early, most do not begin to show their skills until late in their first season. Fultz must learn to trust that the game will come to him in time.
Give me back my optimism!
If you are still reading this, congratulations! You survived a long narrative detailing everything that can go wrong. Now, please allow me to restore optimism to you.
None of the ten principals listed are unique to Markelle Fultz. Insert any prospect name, and each must overcome all factors to emerge as an NBA starter. Most do.
Ten Needs, Ten Filled
There can be no doubt that the trade which landed the top pick of the 2017 NBA Draft will go down as an epic moment in the history of the Philadelphia 76ers. And to commemorate this achievement, I turn your attention to an excellent article written by Derek Bodner praising both Sam Hinkie and Bryan Colangelo for the move. In the article, he points out that there is no such thing as certainty in dealing with NBA draft prospects.
Next: Philadelphia 76ers 2017-18 Second Unit: Post-Draft Edition
The Philadelphia 76ers have a very specific need to the team roster right now. A week ago, those needs listed out as ten components. Markelle Fultz satisfies all ten Philadelphia 76ers needs. Ultimately, the team must address team needs, and count on the coaching staff and the player to deliver.
Fultz is a go folks. He is the best NBA draft prospect for good reason. This exercise is simply to exorcise the plague of injuries to top prospects in Philadelphia.