Fit versus Grit: Jerryd Bayless or T.J. McConnell?

The backup point guard debate has been overlooked in the exuberance of the NBA offseason. Who should be the primary backup for the Philadelphia 76ers?

The NBA draft, free agency and all of the workout videos leaking out of the Camden practice facility indicate a sea change in the Philadelphia 76ers lineup. The opening day roster will look very different from the team that last walked off the floor in April.

First and foremost, the Philadelphia 76ers played the majority of last season with TJ McConnell as the starting and finishing point guard. McConnell is a traditional old school lead guard. His grit and toughness have been lauded by teammates and opponents alike. Unfortunately, for all his laudable efforts, he is not an ideal fit with Ben Simmons or Markelle Fultz due to his inability to knock down long range jump shots.

This was not the original plan of course. Jerryd Bayless was signed last July with the intent of being the starting guard next to Ben Simmons. Bayless is/was viewed as a better fit stylistically with Simmons due to his shooting. He is more of a combo guard, who is not a great primary initiator but can handle the ball and shoot on catch and shoot opportunities.

The fit discussion

In theory Bayless, who shot 44 percent from three in his last full season in Milwaukee as an off ball guard next to Giannis Antetokounmpo would present a perfect fit as a backup to space the floor when Fultz is on the bench. Bayless has a nearly ideal shot chart from a fit perspective. Most of his shots come from the three and are either on the wing or in the corner. a full 53% of Bayless’ shot attempts from behind the three point line. Just 32 percent of Bayless’ shots came between three and 23 feet.

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As you can see, Bayless does not operate in the mid range very much. He is either attacking the basket or shooting from three. Typically Bayless has played as a finisher more than an offensive initiator and as a result has a lower turnover percentage for his career.

TJ McConnell

McConnell, conversely has a shot chart that screams penetrate and pull up. It is nearly the opposite view from Bayless. 54 percent of McConnell’s shot attempts came between three feet and the three point line. Only 10 percent of T.J.’s attempts were from three. As you can see, its not just about how often each player makes threes, its also critical to consider how often each ATTEMPTS those shots.

So let’s look at the results. all stats via Basketball Reference.

Career	3pfg%	Assist %	Turnover %	Assist:To	Usage%	Ortg	Drtg
Bayless	37%	22%	15%	2to1	21%	104	108
McConnell	29%	38%	22%	3to1	16%	104	108

So with the assumption that between Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz, the backup lead guard position will need to be a floor spacer, it seems clear that Bayless is the better candidate right? The areas where McConnell exceeds are deemed to be less vital than those areas where Bayless excels with this particular team.

The necessity of grit

I suspect that someone could have reasonably written an analysis since high school that said T.J. McConnell would likely remain a deep bench reserve. And yet year after year T.J. exceeds expectations. He became a star at the University of Arizona after transferring from Duquesne. He was not drafted. T.J. was added as an unheralded addition to the Philadelphia 76ers summer league roster in 2015.

Summer 2015

Going into that training camp, no one expected McConnell to make the team. There was discussion of whether Scotty Wilbekin should get the spot due to his ability to knock down shots from long range. And yet when the season began, T.J. made the roster. And by December, McConnell was starting in lieu of Kendall Marshall or Tony Wroten who had been hampered by injuries from the season before.

McConnell brings a toughness, a calm and an assertive confidence to the team that is valuable. He is the sort of player who can keep your team from going on full tilt.

Here’s a quote from HoopsHype:

"Eastern Conference center: “The most underrated player in the NBA is T.J. McConnell from the Sixers. If you just look at his stats, they’re never going to jump out at you, but that little f***er is tough. He’s a tough kid. I remember thinking, ‘Oh, I’ll just screen this little white boy and lay him out,’ but he fights through every screen. He’s gritty and he doesn’t back down from anyone. It’s hard being a point guard in today’s NBA because you’re going against a star most nights, but he holds his own. He demands respect every single night. If you don’t respect him entering the game, you’ll respect him by the second half.”"

Summer analysis

On balance this will be a fascinating subplot to the season. I will not be surprised if we look back in a year and see TJ McConnell will have played more total minutes than Bayless in the regular season. If the Philadelphia 76ers want to have postseason success however, it will probably come because players like Bayless were able to live up to their theoretical fit. This is the kind of heart and mind conflict that we may need to get used to as the team transitions from the low pressure intensity of the process to the high expectations of a winning team.

Next: Is the Sixers' bench one of the best in the league?

Plan A is likely to surround Simmons and Fultz with spacers.When the going gets tough, however, it will be interesting to see if Brett Brown looks to T.J. to right the ship.