Potential Marvin Bagley reclassification changes outlook on Fultz trade

With Marvin Bagley — who’s arguably the top high school recruit in the country — considering a jump to the 2018 class, the outlook on the Philadelphia 76ers‘ trade for Markelle Fultz could change.

The Philadelphia 76ers received overwhelmingly positive feedback in lieu of their decision to trade up for the first overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. They took the best guard prospect in years with Markelle Fultz, while their core has finally been solidified long term.

Philadelphia 76ers

They also got crafty with the protections they put on the pick they sent to Boston. Rather than receiving the 2018 Lakers pick straight-up, the Sixers protected it from two through five. That means the Sixers would keep the pick if it landed at the top or outside the top five. If Philadelphia keeps it, the Celtics get Sacramento’s 2019 first.

That’s a more than reasonable gamble for a talent of Fultz’s caliber, even though the likelihood of the Lakers finishing dead-last in the NBA seems slim after the addition of Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Sixers kept the possibility to grabbing either Luka Doncic or Michael Porter Jr. open by hanging onto that first slot, but the value outside of those two, in theory, drops off steeply.

That may not be the case for much longer.

A recent report states that Marvin Bagley — who’s currently projected as the top talent in the 2019 draft class — could reclassify and enter college this upcoming season, with either Duke or USC on the docket. Bagley is considered by most to be a superior prospect to both Porter and Doncic — who are phenomenal in their own right — which could hike up the price of losing out on a potential top five pick next season.

The Sixers don’t have any pressing needs for a player like Bagley in a vacuum, as the athletic 6-foot-11 big man would likely be shuffled behind Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons by default. But talent almost always wins out towards the top of the draft, and Bagley has all the tools of an elite big with NBA-ready feel and a versatile skill set.

A Bagley reclassification, however, wouldn’t impact the Sixers’ end of the deal as much as it would the Celtics’. Boston would then have a shot at a top-level talent at either the two or the three spot, which increases their chances of outclassing the loss of Fultz if Los Angeles stumbles next season.

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Bagley needs to fill out physically, but that’s the case with most 18-year-old bigs. His frame has plenty of room to grow, while his mobility, bounciness and offensive polish could translate into immediate NBA production once he reaches that stage. His upside on the defensive end is high as well, and Boston’s need for another two-way big to pair alongside Al Horford on the interior has been well-documented.

Porter is then the most well-rounded scorer in recent memory on the wing, combining excellent physical tools with a smooth stroke from deep and plenty of tricks in isolation. Doncic might be the best international prospect of our generation, if not ever. While not explosive athletically, he has point guard-esque skills in a stretch four’s body.

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Bagley wouldn’t tip the scales too much in regards to the Fultz trade — and grabbing Fultz was likely still worth it — but the Celtics could save face a bit if they’re able to slide into the mix for one of those talents. There’s a legitimate argument for all three of the prospects mentioned to go number one, and the potential for Boston to latch onto an elite talent just increased by a slight — but significant — margin.