Sixers: Is Avery Bradley an overrated free agent option?

The Philadelphia 76ers are highly likely to pursue Avery Bradley as a free agent in 2018. But has Bradley’s reputation overly inflated his market value?

To Philadelphia 76ers fans with an eye on the 2018 free agent class, it sort of feels like Avery Bradley is earmarked to be a primary target for Bryan Colangelo next offseason. And it’s pretty obvious why- Bradley has gained a reputation as one of the best defenders in the league, combining elite agility, quick hands, and a relentless motor. He made the All-Defensive team in 2015-16 and was considered a snub this past year. His defensive prowess was especially on display in the Boston Celtics’ playoff matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, getting a clutch defensive stop on Kyrie Irving and earning widespread praise.

Bradley has also grown into a solid offensive threat over the course of his NBA career. Last season, Bradley scored a career best 16.7 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting, hitting 39 percent of his shots from deep. Taken altogether, Bradley appears to be exactly the kind of player you want next to a core of Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, and Joel Embiid. He can space the floor well enough for the rest of the Sixers to shred defenses on pick-and-rolls, and shut down the other team’s best guard so Fultz doesn’t have to.

Stats don’t lie?

And yet when you look at Bradley’s advanced numbers, they paint a picture of an average starting guard, perhaps best suited for a prominent bench role. His offensive rating and defensive rating from last year of 105 and 108 respectively are acceptable but certainly not great. This claim is supported by statistics that measure his overall value. Bradley posted a mediocre 0.7 VORP (Value over Replacement Player) and .081 WS/48 (Win Shares per 48 minutes). Meanwhile, the similarly renowned 3-and-D guard Patrick Beverley recorded 2.3 VORP and .123 WS/48.

Of course, there is an argument to be made that these statistics do not measure defensive value accurately. So we’ll need to take a deeper look at Bradley’s defensive stats, starting with his on-off splits from this past year.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/27/2017.

The Celtics were only marginally better offensively with Bradley on the court in 2016-17, and demonstrably worse defensively. But okay, these splits certainly aren’t the end-all, be-all of defensive stats. Let’s check out how Bradley fared on each individual playtype.

via stats.nba.com

This accounts for over 75 percent of Bradley’s defensive possessions, enough to get a decent sense of his strengths and weaknesses as a defender. And the conclusion? Bradley’s a perfectly solid defender, but nothing to write home about. He was above average at defending pick and roll ball handlers and shooters coming off screens, but a rather terrible isolation defender.

The discrepancy between Bradley’s reputation and his statistical performance is stunning. It just doesn’t compute. It’s like the President of the United States (just a hypothetical president, not trying to get political) receiving accolades for thwarting climate change while sea levels continue to rise. The eye test can’t possibly be this wrong, can it?

Where the narrative fails

Alex Kungu of Celtics Blog took a deep dive into Bradley’s defense during the season and came to the conclusion that Bradley was still an elite defender, despite numerous stats that argue otherwise. Kungu cites Bradley’s struggles as resulting from a shoulder injury and additional offensive responsibilities.

"The numbers say Bradley is a below-average defender, while the reputation suggests he’s one of the best league. The eye test says he’s great and flawed at the same time. In the same way I found a bunch of clips of bad Bradley defensive possessions, someone could find just as many good ones. However, I think the combination of his added responsibilities of being a rebounder and scorer combined with his shoulder injury, tough matchups, and some bad tendencies draw an interesting distinction that’s important to make. Bradley is no longer playing defense at an elite level and at times even an average level, but he’s still an elite defender."

Similarly, Chris Forsberg of ESPN finds many stats that show Bradley is not an elite defender, then backtracks to the eye-test method of evaluating defense without the nuance of Kungu’s take.

So what can possibly explain the discrepancy between the popular narrative surrounding Bradley and his actual stats? The best (speculative) explanation that I can come up with is that Bradley lacks a key defensive attribute- versatility. Bradley is a frail 6-foot-2, 180 pound dude. As a comparison, T.J. McConnell is the same height but 20 pounds heavier. Bradley simply doesn’t have the size to effectively match up against stronger, taller players. His quickness is only so useful when other players can shoot over the top of him, or drive into his body for an easy look near the basket. Bradley can never defend effectively in a switch-heavy scheme. But he excels at defending point guards who rely on agility and ball-handling to get their looks — in other words, Kyrie Irving.

Related Story: Avery Bradley and a look at 2018 free agency

As for attempting to explain the narrative itself, defense is measured by the casual observer mostly by intensity and highlight plays. How much effort is a player putting in defensively? Is he pressuring the ball? How many steals does he get? Bradley gets the occasional flashy steal, and he constantly applies pressure on the ball. Unfortunately, the visibility of these factors help paint a more flattering portrait of Bradley’s defense than is actually warranted.

It’s certainly possible that his shoulder injury and added responsibilities affected his defensive play- his stats from the 2015-16 season are indeed better. But Bradley’s defensive on-off splits were even worse that season; instead of being 3.5 points worse when Bradley was on the court in 2016-17, the Celtics were 5.5 points worse the year prior.

Besides, Bradley only recorded a 1.4 VORP and .090 WS/48 in 2015-16, the best of his career. His offensive game will always limited by his inability to create for others and get to the free throw line. A 9.9% career assist rate and 1.4 free throw attempts per game simply aren’t good, which means that Bradley will always need other players to carry the offensive load.

Good fit, but at what cost?

For all of the questions about Bradley’s true value, he’d still be a nice piece to add to the Sixers next offseason. His shooting and, at the bare minimum, above average defense make him a player who would slot in nicely into the Sixers’ rotation. Plus, the Sixers only have a couple more offseasons with cap space to spend before having to hand out extensions to their young core. However, the Sixers should still avoid sending Bradley a blank check. Bradley just isn’t good enough to be more than a role player on a championship winning team; it’s up to the team to decide how much that’s worth to them.

Next: Trading Stauskas to Cavs Makes Sense

The moves you don’t make are as important as the moves you do. Bradley could be a solid addition to the Sixers at the right price, but the team must be able to step away from the table if the price tag gets too high.

All stats via Basketball Reference and stats.nba.com