The Sixer Sense
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ESPN shorts Philadelphia 76ers about 12 wins in latest projections

Bret Stuter|
PHILADELPHIA,PA - NOVEMBER 19: Brett Brown Head Coach of the Philadelphia 76ers gathers his team during a timeout against the Phoenix Suns during a game at the Wells Fargo Center on November 19, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA,PA - NOVEMBER 19: Brett Brown Head Coach of the Philadelphia 76ers gathers his team during a timeout against the Phoenix Suns during a game at the Wells Fargo Center on November 19, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Philadelphia 76ers won 28 games last season with a bench filled with injured players. ESPN adds just five games to their win projections in their latest projections

Okay, ESPN increased the Philadelphia 76ers win projections by 25 percent. So why am I complaining? Well, last season a crippled and patchwork roster nearly tripled the win total from the previous season.  Now, with a healthy roster plus the like of Amir Johnson, Markelle Fultz, and J.J. Redick, ESPN adds a mere five more wins to the teams upside?

Perhaps it was an overriding objective to keep the Philadelphia 76ers out of the playoffs in these projections.  Perhaps ESPN looked at two top drafted rookies: Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz; and decided that two new faces was too great a risk to bless with more optimism.

Others notice the pessimism too

Even FanSided’s Nothing But Nets writer Ynal Al-Ouri is stumped by the lack of love from ESPN towards the Philadelphia 76ers.  In his recap, he factors in youth and injury potential and still believes the number is far too low.

The ESPN forecast is disguised under the veil of Real Plus Minus (RPM). Those forecasts factor in the playing time averaged over the last three seasons.  Well, in the last three seasons, most of the Philadelphia 76ers stars have sat on the bench recovering. While that may work well for most NBA teams, it skews the optimism from the Philadelphia 76ers to the basement.  But, knowing the problem is half of the cure.  So we can help ESPN massage their forecast.

More from The Sixer Sense

Real History Method (RHM)

We know that Joel Embiid led the Philadelphia 76ers to one of the most successful months in recent history.  A team which entered January 2017 as 8-24 emerged as 18-29. That translates into a 10-5 record for the month of January. Embiid played his last game of the season on January 27, 2017 in a hard fought loss to the Houston Rockets. How do we use this information? We’ll call it the Real History Method (RHM)

Translating that 10-5 January 2017 into a 2017-2018 full season record is not as difficult as it may sound. That converts to 54-28 over an 82 game season.  But let’s pull down that optimism a tad.  Five games for a new lineup brings this team down to 49-33.  Let’s pull another four games out for minor injuries this season.

In the end, the team ends up at 45 wins and 37 losses.  That’s a fair estimate. It leaves plenty of optimism for the team based on the new player additions. It also leaves plenty of downside for the team should this chemistry fail to congeal or players fall to injury.

Next: Philadelphia 76ers versatility will take NBA by surprise

The Philadelphia 76ers are far better than a 33 win team folks. They were nearly  that good last season if the team was not decimated by injuries. Now, those players are healed and ready to get back to a winning track.