The Sixer Sense
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It’s still difficult to get a read on the Nerlens Noel trade

By Christopher Kline

PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 17: Nerlens Noel #3 of the Dallas Mavericks looks on against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center on March 17, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 17: Nerlens Noel #3 of the Dallas Mavericks looks on against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center on March 17, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The free agency market has put Nerlens Noel in a tough spot, and that creates even more uncertainty around the Philadelphia 76ers‘ decision to trade him.

When the Philadelphia 76ers shipped Nerlens Noel to the Dallas Mavericks at the trade deadline, the reactions were mixed. The premise of the trade was understandable, but the return felt well below market value in the eyes of most. Noel was expected to get a max contract this offseason, yet Justin Anderson and a fake first round pick was all the Sixers could muster in trade talks.

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers /

Philadelphia 76ers

What has actually transpired this offseason changes the perspective on that deal entirely — in more than one way.

The free agency market has dried up far quicker than expected, with a number of talented centers waiting longer than others for deals to be on the table. Part of that is due to the slight decline in cap space compared to expectations, but part of it is also due to the shifting landscape of modern NBA basketball.

Teams don’t need centers like they used to, and bigs who are limited on the offensive end often find themselves with even less utility. Noel is plenty talented on the defensive end, with the ability to switch screens and protect the rim at a level that should keep him relevant for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t mean teams want to throw max money at him, though, which means his market has inevitably been far smaller than expected.

He has gotten no offers, neither from Dallas nor elsewhere. The Mavs now hold all the leverage in contract conversations, which essentially eliminates any chance of Noel receiving a contract remotely close to the max.

At this current rate, it feels likely that we’ll see Nerlens sign his qualifying offer. That keeps him in Dallas for one more season on an affordable deal, essentially allowing him to bet on himself heading into the 2018 offseason. He’d likely play at a level that exceeds his contract, which would place his value higher next offseason when — ideally — more money is available for teams to throw in his direction.

In all of this, the Sixers’ decision and the perception around it has been greatly altered by hindsight. If they had known the center market would be so low, there’s a chance that they would have held onto him in hopes of either re-signing him to an affordable, short term deal (if not his qualifying offer).

That would’ve allowed for Philadelphia to keep Noel as Embiid’s backup for at least the first half of next season, while also upping his chances of increasing his stock on the open market. They’d essentially have a much cleaner slate in trade discussions.

At worst, the Sixers would simply hold onto Noel for one more season before letting him walk for more money in 2018. Considering Justin Anderson’s very limited role long term, that’s likely a risk worth taking.

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It was nearly impossible, however, to foresee the market playing out like it did at the time of the trade. Neither side knew the implications a change in cap space would have, nor did the Sixers expect Noel’s contract discussions to stall entirely.

He’s irrefutably the most talented player left on the market as it currently stands, and the fact that he hasn’t re-signed still feels a bit odd. The circumstances have played into the Mavs’ hands, which has placed Noel into a genuinely tough spot moving forward. That’s the unpredictability of the NBA at it’s finest.

Philadelphia inevitably doesn’t lose or gain much from this. They don’t have the money to commit long term no matter what, while Noel’s value would have still be relatively low in 2018 considering his contract situation. Teams would still low ball the Sixers, and Justin Anderson-type talent may have remained their best bet altogether.

Next: Sixers' point guard battle

It’s not anything worth reading too far into, but the fact that Noel still doesn’t have a contract is enough for some to call into question Bryan Colangelo’s decision making — even if it’s entirely unwarranted.