The Sixer Sense
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Assuming health, Sixers should offer Joel Embiid a max extension

By Christopher Kline

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 11: Injured Philadelphia 76ers player Joel Embiid, left, talks with a teammate near the bench area during a break in NBA game action between the Philadelphia 76ers and the LA Clippers at Staples Center on March 11, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. The Clippers defeated the Sixers 112-100. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 11: Injured Philadelphia 76ers player Joel Embiid, left, talks with a teammate near the bench area during a break in NBA game action between the Philadelphia 76ers and the LA Clippers at Staples Center on March 11, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. The Clippers defeated the Sixers 112-100. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images) /
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Health is an obvious concern, but Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid‘s talent is worth nothing short of a max contract.

Next season is pivotal in many ways for the Philadelphia 76ers. They’ll not only be tasked with battling high expectations in a weakened Eastern Conference, but will also need to deal the impending free agency of their best player.

Joel Embiid is eligible for an extension, which means the front office will need to weigh the pros and cons that come with his extended injury history and historic production on the floor. Even in just 31 games, Embiid established himself as one of the best bigs in the league last season. It’s now a matter of whether or not the Sixers are willing to shell out max money to somebody who has seen the court in less than one-sixth of his games as an NBA player.

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers /

Philadelphia 76ers

This year is the last one of Embiid’s rookie deal, which means he’ll enter restricted free agency this offseason. The Sixers will have the ability to offer a qualifying offer in excess of $8 million, but that’s likely off the table considering Embiid’s talent.

Assuming he remains healthy for the majority of next season, Bryan Colangelo will likely be willing to give Embiid a hefty amount of cash — but it might fall short of the max. Steve Kyler reported this:

"League sources said recently they there was a growing sense that the 76ers would indeed extend Embiid, and that a deal structured something like Antetokounmpo’s four-year $100 million pact would make sense given the injury history. The problem with getting a deal done at less than max is that many in Embiid’s world believe he could get a max offer in restricted free agency next year, especially if he plays at the level he did for 31 games last season."

The ideology on both sides is pretty clear. The Sixers could offer Embiid the security of a four-year deal, but Embiid could very well take a risk and look for a max contract in free agency — which could net him circa $117 million over four years.

The concerns are then split equally between both sides. If Embiid rejects a four-year, $100 million offer from Philadelphia, there’s no guarantee that other teams would be willing to offer more given his injury concerns. If Embiid does receive a max offer sheet elsewhere, it would then be up to Colangelo and company to decide whether or not he’s worth the risk that comes with paying that.

If we’re assuming health, though, the Sixers should cut a lot of those question marks out of the equation. Joel Embiid deserves a max extension.

Health is clearly the biggest factor here, but let’s not understate just how gifted Embiid is. He was among the league’s best defenders last season, while his offensive contributions came at an unprecedented rate. He threw together 20.2 points and 2.5 blocks per contest while averaging short of 26 minutes. That’s significantly less playing time than other star-caliber bigs around the league.

Opposing teams saw their offensive rating dip by nine points whenever Embiid was on the floor, while the Sixers in turn upped theirs by 2.5. That added up to an 11.5 point swing in Philadelphia’s favor whenever the Cameroonian saw the floor.

That type of impact is virtually unheralded, and even less common for rookies seeing their first NBA action. Embiid should continue improving from here on out, and that means he could feasibly be the best big in the league a few years down the road.

We seldom see talent of Embiid’s magnitude, and missing out on his impact due to the risks that come with prior injury history is something this Sixers team could sorely regret. As good as Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz are, it’s difficult to see Brett Brown’s squad progressing to championship contention without Embiid patrolling the interior on a nightly basis.

I’ll quote an old adage that fits this scenario seamlessly: No risk, no reward.

There’s always some form of risk when building a competitive unit. Whether it’s the Warriors taking a risk on Stephen Curry‘s sketchy ankle history on draft night or the Spurs trading George Hill for the pick that eventually became Kawhi Leonard, the consequences for sitting pat and minimizing risks can be detrimental to a team’s success — not beneficial.

There’s always the looming possibility that Embiid’s foot troubles nag him for the rest of his career. There’s also a chance that he emerges as one of the most transcendent interior talents we’ve seen in the past decade.

Next: 2018 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0

Philadelphia can’t let Embiid slip through the cracks over a few million dollars per year.