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Which Philadelphia 76ers player biggest injury risk this year?

By Bret Stuter

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 30: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during the game against the Denver Nuggets on December 30, 2016 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 30: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during the game against the Denver Nuggets on December 30, 2016 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – FEBRUARY 23: Jerami Grant
PHILADELPHIA, PA – FEBRUARY 23: Jerami Grant /

The Philadelphia 76ers have become accustomed to significant talent sitting out the season. But of the current roster, which player injury would be most detrimental to this team

The Philadelphia 76ers have had a troubling history over the team’s injury frequency. That trend resulted in key starters on the bench, oftentimes for the entire season. Can the past enable some cause-effect projection for the new season? No.  Even if possible, the number of variables would require MIT’s entire computing system to develop.  My laptop is trustworthy and dependable, but it’s not close in terms of computing power.

So while there is no way to use that trend to develop and cause-effect projections for the upcoming year, it’s a concern which weighs on our minds. But if the goal of projecting the probabilities of injury is an exercise in futility, what can we do do asses the downside of injury to key players in the 2017-2018 season?

Assessing injury impact upon team

Well, there is another way.  Rather than trying to assess who may be injured, let’s look at which player who, if they are injured for the duration of the season, will hinder the Philadelphia 76ers. So how do we go about that?

First of all, lets set the impact to the team in terms of three categories:  I – current season success II -Long term development  III – Economic futility. Confused?   I think it will make sense as we discuss some players.  As to the overall impact?

Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid – Catastrophic

Honestly, this one will bruise even the toughest, calmest, and most passionate Philadelphia 76ers fans.  The loss of Joel Embiid hurts the teams current success. But the impact to the long term development of the team will be franchise changing. How so?

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    • The team is built upon the premise that Joel Embiid is the future of the team. If he sits a significant portion of this season, the team will likely decide to move in a different direction. Will that mean a worse future? That’s impossible to say without knowing what the team has in the rest of the roster.

    But it will set the franchise back in terms of competing annually in playoffs.  That would be major damage to a franchise and to the fans belief in the team direction. That would cause a major shift in direction.

    J.J. Redick

    J.J.Redick – Devastating

    While I think the team can survive the season long loss of J.J. Redick, the repercussions would be devastating to the team. The free agent experiment had mixed results last season, but that satisfied the objectives of “bridges” for the team to sustain to this season. The problem? The players signed did not deliver as many playing minutes as hoped for.

    That did not discourage the team from foraging once more. Signing Redick was as much symbolic as pragmatic. While he adds defense, veteran leadership, and scoring potential, the bigger prize was demonstrating to the NBA that a significant veteran with post-season experience would choose the Sixers.  If he were to sit out the season, the team would be out his one-year contract.  But more importantly, the strategy of augmenting this team with free agents may diminish. That would be a devasting impact to this team.

    Markelle Fultz

    Markelle Fultz- Extremely Dangerous

    While it’s foolish to place a high bar on any rookie’s debut in the NBA, Markelle Fultz does not feel like a rookie on this team. As such, he will likely see a starting role, significant playing time, and plenty of mix and matches among the various line-up combinations to determine which group works best around him and with him.

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    A greater risk for the team will be in the long term development of this roster. Fultz, as a top-pick of the 2017 NBA Draft, is considered one of the core players of this team. Since the team has had to await the healthy return of both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, there will be little patience throughout the organization if Fultz goes down to a season-ending injury.

    What will that do to the team? Well, the duct tape versatility of the team will sustain for this season.  But where the team focuses resources in the next off-season could change dramatically as a result.

    Summary

    No NBA team is immune to injury, and that includes key players.  But the Philadelphia 76ers have had more than their share of impactful injuries.  Right now, it’s a field of landmines which are best left undisturbed.

    Next: Who will lead the Philadelphia 76ers in scoring this season?

    But there are some players who, by their very nature of who, and how, they are to this team, would be a major impact to the team’s success, strategy, and future. After four straight seasons of season-ending injuries to one of our top players, I think it would not bother anyone for major injuries to subside on this team for an equal amount of time.