The Sixer Sense
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Philadelphia 76ers: 5 theories on Joel Embiid’s health

By Jason Blevins

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 11: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts at the end of the game against the New York Knicks at the Wells Fargo Center on January 11, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 11: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts at the end of the game against the New York Knicks at the Wells Fargo Center on January 11, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 20: Joel Embiid #21 and head coach Brett Brown of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on against the New Orleans Pelicans in the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center on December 20, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Pelicans defeated the 76ers 108-93. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 20: Joel Embiid #21 and head coach Brett Brown of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on against the New Orleans Pelicans in the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center on December 20, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Pelicans defeated the 76ers 108-93. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

Possible Explanation 2 — Embiid’s agent wants a new contract

Colangelo used the words “cautiously optimistic” regarding a contract extension. There was a report, refuted as fall by Brett Brown that Embiid’s management was looking for a contract extension to be finalized before he was allowed to play five-on-five.

This theory makes sense if you believe that Embiid believes himself to be perfectly healthy and wants to be paid like the franchise cornerstone he is. His management knows he is one bad landing or one errant foot from losing all leverage in a negotiation.

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Ben Simmons was not injured last year because of reckless play or an injury prone body. It was simply a Shawn Long step going for a rebound that broke his foot. If something similar were to happen to Embiid before a contract extension, it would immediately be chalked up to his brittle nature versus a freak accident. His value would essentially drop from $100 million over multiple years to $3-4 million and short term contracts. This is a huge delta and its hard to fault his team for being cautious.

This does not mean that Embiid views himself as injury prone. Going back to his recklessness I think its safe to say he thinks he has been unlucky but isn’t invincible.

Here’s why this would concern me. I tend to think that Embiid has felt that he could play much more than the team has allowed him to play. If he and the team have very different views of his actual health then negotiations could be complicated. If the team is negotiating as though he’s only played 31 career games and he is thinking that he could have played 150 games, the perception of value and leverage could be quite mismatched.