Philadelphia 76ers: 5 theories on Joel Embiid’s health

The Philadelphia 76ers are sending mixed messages regarding Joel Embiid, so what possible explanations would exist?

In life, two things can be true at once. Shroedinger’s cat is both alive and dead. A movie can be a tragedy and comedy and Joel Embiid can be both healthy and fragile. Most people crave certainty in a world that is ever-changing, evolving and shifting below our feet. Only because Joel Embiid is so dear to us, and his talent is so immense do we struggle so much with his seemingly never-ending uncertain health status.

Seems like the team views him as healthy but isn’t sure how his body will respond to a workload.

So given all of these mixed messages, let’s look at five reasonable(ish) explanations. I’m going to rank these in order of most to least reasonable.

Possible Explanation 1 – Embiid can’t be trusted to be careful

The Philadelphia 76ers have made no secret that Joel Embiid is the franchise cornerstone both on the court and in the public image. The team also knows that the sheer exuberance that makes Embiid so compelling to the entire NBA world is what puts him most at risk of future injury.

This theory posits that Joel is healthy, everything is fine, but they want to keep him in bubble wrap until it actually matters. When you watch Embiid play a few things stand out.

1. He is reckless with his body.
2. He still needs to learn how to land properly.

Let’s say you had an Italian supercar. It was the most amazing driving experience of your life but the darn thing is temperamental due to the sheer stress of a 1000 horsepower engine. You love the car for the same reasons that you don’t to drive it to work.

The Philadelphia 76ers may just want to keep the reins on Embiid until he’s proven not to be a danger to himself.

Possible Explanation 2 — Embiid’s agent wants a new contract

Colangelo used the words “cautiously optimistic” regarding a contract extension. There was a report, refuted as fall by Brett Brown that Embiid’s management was looking for a contract extension to be finalized before he was allowed to play five-on-five.

This theory makes sense if you believe that Embiid believes himself to be perfectly healthy and wants to be paid like the franchise cornerstone he is. His management knows he is one bad landing or one errant foot from losing all leverage in a negotiation.

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Ben Simmons was not injured last year because of reckless play or an injury prone body. It was simply a Shawn Long step going for a rebound that broke his foot. If something similar were to happen to Embiid before a contract extension, it would immediately be chalked up to his brittle nature versus a freak accident. His value would essentially drop from $100 million over multiple years to $3-4 million and short term contracts. This is a huge delta and its hard to fault his team for being cautious.

This does not mean that Embiid views himself as injury prone. Going back to his recklessness I think its safe to say he thinks he has been unlucky but isn’t invincible.

Here’s why this would concern me. I tend to think that Embiid has felt that he could play much more than the team has allowed him to play. If he and the team have very different views of his actual health then negotiations could be complicated. If the team is negotiating as though he’s only played 31 career games and he is thinking that he could have played 150 games, the perception of value and leverage could be quite mismatched.

Possible Explanation 3 — Nothing is wrong, they just don’t trust the process

Maybe everything is fine but like all of us, Brett Brown and Bryan Colangelo cannot bring themselves to risk a jinx by declaring him good to go. Sports are notoriously superstitious and these guys career success is so tied to a healthy Joel Embiid they are simply afraid to claim full health.

Just as we were all dead when it was reported that his Navicular bone had separated again and would require a second surgery, perhaps Brown and Colangelo would be so devastated that they simply cannot bring themselves to publicly give a thumbs up.

Possible Explanation 4 — Something is still wrong

This is depressing to even consider, but perhaps Joel is still experiencing minor swelling after workouts over multiple days. Six months after surgery, this would be disheartening because it essentially means that his knees will continue to be an issue and likely slow him down and/or shorten his career.

It would explain why the team wants to limit his workload and maximize the miles left in his body. It doesnt necessarily mean extended time missed, but it means he will likely continue to not play back to backs, and very likely play less than the 60 or so games I think he would need to play for the Philadelphia 76ers to reasonably compete for a playoff spot this season.

Possible Explanation 5 – The rope-a-dope tank

This could be construed as a conspiracy theory but let’s at least consider the possibility that Embiid has not been nearly as injured as reported. We all remember the 10-5 January where the team got dangerously close to playoff contention. From Embiid’s injury on the team played a very clear tank game by progressively shutting down its players for the year.

Many sports doctors would tell you that NBA big men often play through partially torn meniscus injuries. The meniscus does serve to protect the knee from grinding and playing on it can shorten a players career, but if he can play through pain its not a debilitating injury.

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It is quite possibly that Bryan Colangelo saw the team surging but realized he lacked the missing perimeter player to get to true contention. On Feb. 1st, its quite possible he decided to fold his hand and let Ben Simmons, Embiid and later Robert Convington sit for the remainder of the season.

As it turns out, because of the Sacramento pick swap, this wasn’t necessary to help the tank and acquire Markelle Fultz. On Feb. 1st, however, it looked like the prudent course of action.

Now I don’t exactly know how this would explain the team not declaring Embiid 100 percent but perhaps they want to legitimize their decisions regarding his health by allowing doctors to be as cautious as possible.

Conclusion

Colangelo and the team have consistently said that the doctors will dictate the timeline and health will be the primary factor. This is simply cover for their business decision, in my view. No doctor would ever recommend a 7-foot-2, 270 pound man play a full court contact sport and run and jump with the ferocity of the NBA game. If you leave it up to a doctor they will keep any player in bubble wrap.

No one is asking about Amir Johnson’s ankles, and I’m sure the doctors probably see more cause for concern there. The simple fact is that Amir is not as critical to the future and therefore the team is more willing to accept the risk of playing him early and often.

The careful approach that the Philadelphia 76ers are taking with Embiid does not mean they don’t see him as the future of the franchise. In fact, it5  says exactly the opposite. If they didn’t still have their future hopes and dreams invested in him they would just let him play as much and for as long as he could and move on when he broke down.

The careful approach they take means they do trust the process, but they recognize the uncertainty and are not willing to take even the smallest risks unless the benefit is immediately evident.

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My guess is they view him as someone they can get 40-60 games from and want to keep him fresh for the playoffs. They are conserving him as a precious human resource and will only expend it as needed before the playoffs.