The Sixer Sense
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Was the Philadelphia 76ers trading Nerlens Noel a mistake?

By Michael Bronson

SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 4: Nerlens Noel #3 of the Dallas Mavericks looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on April 4, 2017 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 4: Nerlens Noel #3 of the Dallas Mavericks looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on April 4, 2017 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The reason the Philadelphia 76ers traded Nerlens Noel to the Dallas Mavericks was that he could have commanded a big contract, but the deal that he ultimately signed, among other issues, means they made a mistake.

“I’m not guaranteeing the Sixers would’ve gotten a better offer for Noel had they declined the Mavericks’ offer, but I believe most good general managers would’ve been willing to bet two second round picks on the possibility.”

The above quote is from an article I wrote around the time the Philadelphia 76ers traded Nerlens Noel to the Dallas Mavericks for Andrew Bogut, Justin Anderson, and a top 18 protected first round pick that turned into the 39th pick in the 2017 draft and a 2018 second round pick. Since the trade went down Noel signed a one-year $4.1 million contract with the Dallas Mavericks.

What makes the contract Noel eventually signed interesting in respect to what the Sixers traded him for, is that the fear that the Sixers would be forced to give a huge contract to a player that will hopefully only be their backup center wasn’t warranted. Noel’s $4.1 million is less than the over $4.9 million Jahlil Okafor will make and slightly over $2.5 million more than the $1.5 million Richaun Holmes will make for the 2017-18 season as the Sixers’ backup centers.

For his career Noel averaged 10 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks while playing 27.6 minutes per game. On paper Okafor’s 14.7 points, 6 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks while playing 26.5 minutes per game and Holmes’ 7.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks while playing 17.5 minutes per game look comparable to Noel, but when you look at how the Sixers’ performed when each player started, you’ll see a clear advantage for Noel.

Noel started in 19 games during the 2016-17 season and the Sixers won seven of them, which is much better than the nine wins out of 33 games Okafor started and the three wins out of 17 games Holmes started that season. The Sixers only won 28 out of 54 games that year, so Noel’s winning percentage was pretty good and with Joel Embiid still unable to play in an actual basketball game and the possibility that he’ll be unable to play in back-to-back games during the 2017-18 season, keeping Noel for one more season would’ve been useful for a Sixers’ team that is expected to make the playoffs.

While trading Noel was the biggest mistake Bryan Colangelo made this offseason and the Sixers are screwed at the center position if Embiid is unable to stay health this season, Bryan did guard against the possibility that Embiid will be unable to stay heathy for the majority of his career by not including a top pick in the 2018 or 2019 draft if the Los Angeles Lakers or Sacramento Kings happen to win the lottery in the trade with the Boston Celtics for Markelle Fultz. And I believe Holmes does have the potential to become the Sixers’ long term option at backup center and the Sixers will have enough cap space to sign a center next offseason if they need to.

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But I, and probably many Sixer’ fans, would’ve been more comfortable about the Sixers being a playoff team this upcoming season if Noel was still on the roster.