After years of patiently accumulating the resources to make a significant splash, the Philadelphia 76ers now debut two top picks simultaneously. The present secure, let’s revisit the future of the Philadelphia 76ers NBA Draft Picks
The Philadelphia 76ers will always be tied to the NBA Draft. Even as the team improves on the basketball court, there will always be one eye from the fans trained upon the next NBA Draft.
After all, it’s the source of future talent.
But when is enough enough? I mean, the Philadelphia 76ers have enjoyed a top three pick in each of the last four years (2014-2017). But as of today, that raw youthful upside is just beginning to impact the team’s outlook.
NBA Draft oasis is evolving into a freshwater swamp
But getting youth is one thing. Keeping youth is another. The NBA has afforded NBA teams plenty of financial incentives to skew young when rebuilding. Those rookies come in at the bargain basement level, eager to exchange immediate financial rewards for opportunity. And until now, the Philadelphia 76ers have been more than delighted to cash in on the dreams of young basketball players in their search for future NBA stars.
But times have changed, Philadelphia. The NBA Draft is no longer the oasis of young talent. As we had pointed out, the new agreement to modify the NBA Draft lottery has changed the odds of the three worst NBA teams downward, and improved the odds of the remaining non-playoff NBA teams upwards. And as the Philadelphia 76ers emerge from four years of a top-three draft pick or better, the team is now ready to cut their franchise umbilical cord to the draft.
Tactics change, strategy doesn’t
While that makes sense from a tactical standpoint, it is not the way the team will act strategically. Even as a playoff team, the Philadelphia 76ers simply have too much effort and value residing in the NBA draft.
Swarm and Sting
What value is that? Plenty. But before we analyze each draft, I want to analyze what I mean by tactics and strategy. Tactical is a term used to describe immediate short-term planning. “What tactics should I employ?”. Strategic is long-term planning. When I use those terms for the Philadelphia 76ers, it can be interpreted this way:
Tactical moves result in players who will make the starting lineup. Strategic moves may not make the starting lineup, and may even result in draft-and-stash player options.
Two-way contract strategy
How does this play into the new two-way contract options? Quite well actually. The two-way contract is designed by the NBA to keep developing players closer to their NBA team. In the past, the Philadelphia 76ers drafted raw young players. But to maintain their rights, the only option for the team was to encourage a “draft-and-stash” scenario. In that event, the player signs on to play overseas, but the player’s NBA rights are maintained by the team which drafted them.
Now, as the opportunity to secure a top three pick fades from “close to certainty” to “definite maybe”, the league at least has afforded teams roster slots to develop drafted players who are not quite ready for the NBA.
Now we are ready to dive into the future drafts of the Philadelphia 76ers.
2018 NBA Draft
The price of moving up in the 2017 NBA Draft to select Markelle Fultz required one of the Philadelphia 76ers first round picks in the future. The first occasion the team could face payment is in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Sir Charles In Charge
Let’s examine that draft, and applaud the wisdom of protecting future picks landing at the top spot from conveying in any current trade scenario
NBA Draft Summary:
Philadelphia 76ers first round pick.
Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (if doesn’t fall at two-five)
Philadelphia 76ers second round pick
Brooklyn Nets or Cleveland Cavaliers second round pick (more favorable of the two)
Houston second round pick
Los Angeles Clippers or New York Knicks second round pick (more favorable of the two)
As the Philadelphia 76ers approach a playoff-worthy caliber, their draft pick value will fall proportionately. But with two firsts (a top-ten pick in the 2018 NBA Draft should be very valuable) in 2018, and four second round picks, the team will have plenty of talent to choose from.
Meanwhile, the team has 2017 drafted players overseas as well. And they are gaining valuable experience this year.
What’s the deal with Boston in draft terms?
Well, the first pick at risk of conveying to the Boston Celtics is the 2018 first round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers. But the pick remains the possession of the Philadelphia 76ers if it lands at the number one spot, or falls to six or lower.
If the pick does not convey in 2018, then the pick defers to the 2019 NBA Draft. In 2019, the Boston Celtics will receive the more favorable of either the Sacramento Kings or Philadelphia 76ers first round pick (protected number one).
Say that again… slowly
How does this logic tree play out? Like this:
2018 Los Angeles Lakers first round pick –> Boston if pick falls from two-five OR
More favorable 2019 first round pick of Sacramento Kings or Philadelphia 76ers first round pick UNLESS pick falls at one pick, then Boston receives the lesser of the two picks.
What cannot happen? The Philadelphia 76ers cannot lose a top pick as a result of the trade with Boston. The Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, and 2019 Philadelphia 76ers first round picks are ALL protected if they fall to the number one.
So the best scenario is to find the Lakers pick at number one. The Lakers are rebuilding, so it is certainly possible.
2019 NBA Draft
The new NBA Draft Lottery “antitanking” provisions kick in during the 2019 NBA Draft. In this new world, the three worst teams lose probability of landing a top five pick in the draft, including the odds of the top overall pick.
Presuming the Los Angeles Lakers pick remains the property of Philadelphia in 2018, the next pick to be transferred is more favorable of the Sacramento Kings or the Philadelphia 76ers. If either selection lands as the number one pick, the Boston Celtics will receive the alternate pick.
Now, that 2019 NBA Draft is coming into focus now as well. Talent appears to be very good in the upper third of that first round. But will the Sixers have an opportunity to pick there? Well, logic suggests that the team’s best chance is to land a top pick via the Sacramento Kings. Do that, and the Celtics will be forced to settle for the Sixers first round pick, wherever that may fall.
NBA Draft Summary:
Philadelphia 76ers first round pick
Sacramento Kings first round draft pick (conditionally protected)
Philadelphia 76ers second round pick
Milwaukee Bucks or the Sacramento Kings second round pick (more favorable)
New York Knicks second round pick
The team must settle (for now) for just one first in 2019 (unless they lose the Lakers pick from 2018). That will give the team more incentive to select a late first rounder with huge upside. The team will have the luxury of selecting the best player available in 2019.
You can bet the Sixers will do just that.
2020 NBA Draft
A year after experiencing the antitanking provisions, NBA teams can react in one of two ways. They might limit transactions involving more NBA draft picks, as they have an even greater level of uncertainty. But there is a contrarian thought which suggests NBA teams, eager to build teams now, will lean even more heavily upon trading picks for players in that year. That could mean some lowly team becomes a “super-draft” team heading into the draft.
8 Points, 9 Seconds
With the Philadelphia 76ers swamped with second round picks, the team may opt to pay some forward, or package some in an attempt to sneak back into the first round late. If the team sees huge upside players falling, they will make strong efforts to open a window of opportunity. Think of it as the 2020 version of the trade up for Anzejs Pasecniks.
NBA Draft Summary:
Philadelphia 76ers first round pick.
Philadelphia second round pick
Brooklyn Nets or New York Knicks second round pick (more favorable)
Dallas Mavericks second round pick
By the time 2020 rolls around the Philadelphia 76ers will have enjoyed three years of the Markelle Fultz-Ben Simmons–Joel Embiid trio. Which veterans will complement that core? Which players will seek their own destiny elsewhere?
The fact is that 2020 will likely be the first year of playoff-Philadelphia will make roster choices like a playoff team. Good players may find themselves as free agents as the team tries to maintain a narrow balance between elite play and affordable payroll. With four draft picks, plus a host of overseas players eager to join the ranks of the NBA, that should be doable.
2021 NBA Draft
By the time the 2021 NBA Draft arrives, the Philadelphia 76ers will be either a well-established playoff team, or a team with a very angry fanbase. Let’s hope it’s the former and consider the draft scenario in that situation.
As a playoff team, the Philadelphia 76ers will not only boast a solid roster, but will have plenty of talent dispersed across the globe as draft-and-stash prospects. Depending on the financial status of the team, the team could allow players to remain in the EuroLeague on multi-year deals simply due to the fact that they have no roster options.
But the team will have a solid core of starters. By 2021, everyone on the roster this year will be four-years older. Contracts which are due for renewal will come due once more. Some players will play themselves out of the affordability of the Philadelphia 76ers salary budget.
Some will sign elsewhere. New faces will be signed.
NBA Draft Summary:
Philadelphia 76ers first round pick.
Philadelphia second round pick
New York Knicks second round pick
In 2021, the Philadelphia 76ers will have only three picks. That will seem very light indeed, but is still greater than the standard NBA draft package of two picks.
Next: Furkan Korkmaz is looking to win some playing time
By 2021, these Philadelphia 76ers will be competing for NBA championships. When that happens, the NBA Draft will seem like an afterthought. Still, fans will likely not forget what got the team there. That is the current status of the next four NBA drafts from the Philadelphia 76ers perspective.
Now, let’s get psyched for the 2017-2018 season!