The Sixer Sense
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Why Ben Simmons and Dennis Smith Jr. will be the NBA’s top rookies

By Michael Bronson

DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 2: Dennis Smith Jr. #1 of the Dallas Mavericks gets introduced before the preseason game against the Milwaukee Bucks on October 2, 2017 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Danny Bollinger/NBAE via Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 2: Dennis Smith Jr. #1 of the Dallas Mavericks gets introduced before the preseason game against the Milwaukee Bucks on October 2, 2017 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Danny Bollinger/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers’ rookies Ben Simmons and Lonzo Ball are excepted to contend for Rookie of the Year, but the real battle is between Simmons and Dallas Mavericks rookie Dennis Smith Jr.

The top three rookies with the best chance at winning Rookie of the Year in order of best to worst odds are Ben Simmons (5/2), Lonzo Ball (11/4), and Dennis Smith Jr. (9/2) according to Sportsbook Review. This is a very different opinion than the one held by the majority of NBA general managers. In John Schumann’s survey of NBA general managers, 62 percent of them believe Ball win, 24 percent believe Simmons will win, and seven percent believe Smith will win.

"“Lonzo lacks the quickness to become the best player or point guard in the NBA. Elite level NBA point guards are expected to drive past their man on a consistent basis and it’s unlikely Lonzo will ever be able to do that.”"

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers /

Philadelphia 76ers

The above quote is from an article I wrote evaluating the potential of Ball and in it I made the case that Ball’s best-case scenario is the third best player on a championship team like Dennis Rodman on the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls or Kevin Love on the 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Ball’s 14.6 points per game made him the third highest scorer on UCLA behind Bryce Alford (15.5) and TJ Leaf (16.3). Both Simmons and Smith were the top scorers on their college teams by a significant margin. Simmons’ 19.2 points per game was 6.1 points higher than the second highest score on LSU, Keith Hornsby (13.1), and Smith’s 18.1 points per game was 5.3 points higher than the second highest scorer on North Carolina State, Terry Henderson (13.8).

Scoring the most points per game is usually the best way to win Rookie of the Year. While the 2016-17 season’s Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon’s 10.2 points per game was fourth among rookies behind Joel Embiid (20.2), Dario Saric (12.8), and Buddy Hield (10.6), 2015-16’s winner Karl-Anthony Towns (18.3), 2014-15’s winner Andrew Wiggins (16.9), 2013-14’s winner Michael Carter-Williams (16.7), and 2012-13’s winner Damian Lillard (19) were the highest scoring rookies when they won the award.

What helped Brogdon win Rookie of the Year over players that had better seasons was that his team had more success. Brogdon’s Milwaukee Bucks ended the season with 42 wins and 40 losses which was good enough to make the playoffs with the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. The 2016-17 Los Angeles Lakers’ 26 wins and 56 losses were worse than the Sixers’ 28 wins and 54 losses and the Mavericks’ 33 wins and 49 losses that season, and looking at the Lakers, Mavericks, and Philadelphia 76ers’ rosters, the Lakers should end the 2017-18 season with the worst record among the three teams.

The only advantage Ball has over Simmons and Smith is assists per game. Ball’s 7.6 assists per game during his time at UCLA was 1.6 assists higher than Smith (6.2) and 2.8 assists higher than Simmons (4.8) during their time at North Carolina State and LSU, respectively. This advantage was shown during the preseason when Ball’s six assists per game lead all rookies and was higher than both Simmons’ 5.4 and Smith’s four.

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But if Ball’s points per game stays in the single digits like the six points per game he averaged during preseason suggest, no amount of popularity or publicity stunts from his father will cause Rookie of the Year voters to choose him over Simmons or Smith. I expect the Sixers to be the only team among them to make the playoffs, which should be enough for Simmons to win Rookie of the Year over Smith despite them likely being close statically in points and assists per game.