With the college basketball season firmly underway, let’s take a look at our first projections for the 2018 NBA Draft.
The college basketball season has already produced a few surprises, with Michael Porter Jr.’s season-ending injury being the biggest. That’s a potential No. 1 pick that we’ll no longer be able to see, which opens the door even further for guys like Marvin Bagley III and DeAndre Ayton in the race against Luka Doncic for the top spot.
We’ve also seen some big-time games already, with Duke v.s. Michigan State and Kansas v.s. Kentucky highlighting some marquee matchups leading up to the Thanksgiving week tournaments.
It’s still too early in the season for definitive statements, but we’re getting a good feel for where certain prospects stand and the improvements they’ll need to make. You can look at our latest big board here, where Owen Nelson breaks down his top 30 prospects in full.
With that in mind, here’s our first mock draft of the season — which takes into account team fit and which players are (or aren’t) expected to committ to the 2018 NBA Draft. This early in the season, though, standings are bound to change, so make sure to take them with a grain of salt.
At this point, Doncic is in a tier of his own. He’ll be arguably the most accomplished European prospect ever, and continues to produce MVP-caliber numbers against competition that’s far superior to anything his collegiate counterparts are facing.
While not a superb athlete, Doncic has a solid frame for his skill set. He’s 6-foot-8 with a point guard’s feel, possessing excellent court vision and a basketball I.Q. that’s comparable to the likes of Ben Simmons and Lonzo Ball — both of whom were highly touted in recent years.
He’s improving as a scorer this season as well. He’d give the Mavericks somebody who’s capable of running the offense alongside some high-octane scorers in Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr.
Bagley was the conensus top recruit after reclassifying to the 2018 draft class, likely making him the frontrunner should the Hawks land in a position like this. Aside from Dennis Schroder, Atlanta doesn’t really have a go-to threat on offense — which is precisely what Bagley provides underneath.
Those calling him a mix of Ben Simmons and Gainnis Antetokounmpo are vastly overselling his skill set, but his physical tools are rare nonetheless. He’s extremely mobile for a 7-footer, and that allows him to thrive in transition while handling himself well in the halfcourt setting, to boot.
Scouts will want to see Bagley’s 3-point shot come to life as the season progresses, but his athleticism, defensive upside and feel around the painted area is enough to push him to No. 2 on a lot of draft boards.
Ayton isn’t a human being. He’s somewhere in the range of 7-feet with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, but combines than with insane strength and mobility that’s comparable to few names outside of Philly’s own Joel Embiid.
Aside from physical prowess, Ayton also has a well-developed skill set. He’s a strong finisher at the rim, but can use a short-range pull-up or his 3-point shot to stretch the floor when needed. He’s also adept when running the floor in transition, something that isn’t too common for bigs with his size.
It’s defense, however, that launches Ayton into the same conversation as Bagley and Porter. He can defend in space, and has clear potential as a shot blocker. Chicago needs a cornerstone, and Ayton gives them one.
Even with back issues and a potentially-checkered health report, Porter is too good to fall outside the top five. The Kings, who desperately need another piece to build around, pounce on Porter without hesitation.
At 6-foot-10, Porter has the size and mobility to play either forward spot. He’s one of the most polished perimeter scorers we’ve seen since Kevin Durant, and combines that with some intriguing upside as a playmaker — something many scouts were hoping to see this season.
He would instantly become the Kings’ primary building block, giving them a go-to scorer and a nice addition to the promising young duo of Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Aaron Fox.
Bamba is a true 7-footer with a wingspan that measures out at 7-foot-9. That’s length that rivals Rudy Gobert, giving him the highest defensive ceiling in the draft.
It’s what Bamba has shown offensively, though, that’s turning heads. He’s a plus passer in post-up scenarios, as well as a capable shooter from mid-range. His 3-point shot isn’t consistent yet, but there’s reason to believe he can continue it’s improvement in the coming years.
DeAndre Jordan’s days are numbered in L.A., and the Clippers could be heading for an all-out rebuild around Blake Griffin. Somebody with Bamba’s defensive upside and modernized skill set on offense should make this an easy choice.
The Cavs need to plan for the absolute worst and add the best talent available. Jackson, in this case, would fit that bill.
At 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Jackson has all the tools needed to be a high-end defender at the next level. He’s light on his feet, has excellent anticipation around the rim and rebounds at a fairly high clip — all while producing at a high level offensively as well.
Even though his shot is a bit of a knuckle ball, Jackson is shooting 42.9 percent from deep on the young season. I doubt that number holds, but he seems plenty capable of spacing the floor, which provides a nice compliment to finishing ability underneath.
There are still some question marks with Bridges, as his offensive skill set is more indicative of a power forward despite his 6-foot-6 frame. There’s still plenty of strength and athleticism for him to defend four positions, but he’s not quite as polished as many scouts would like at this point.
Bridges’ shooting has held up, though, which is crucial in how NBA teams will view him. He’s already plenty strong with the explosiveness needed to finish at the rim as a slasher, so being a reliable spot-up shooter should be enough to give him a stable floor offensively.
The next step in his development will be cleaning up his handles and showing more promise off the dribble. He’s fairly turnover prone in isolation, and doesn’t have the greatest feel for the game when handling the ball. That’ll be the difference between a top-15 projection and vying for a spot in the top five.
The Suns have finally moved on from Eric Bledsoe, opening the window for a new lead guard. Sexton is the highest point guard on most draft boards at this stage in the season.
Even at 6-foot-2, long arms and ample explosiveness help make up for Sexton’s size disadvantage. He’s a questionable shooter, but is plenty confident in his shot and can score in droves when he’s in ryhtym. His quickness and frame allow him to finish at a high rate in traffic as well.
Defense is where Sexton jumps off the proverbial screen. He’s more competitive than anybody else at the top of this draft class, and uses that edge to get into the heads of opposing ball handlers. He has the intangibles that a lot of NBA guys will fall in love with.
Brown still needs to improve his off-the-dribble shooting, but he’s the kind of comboguard that could thrive in Philly’s backcourt. At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan, he gives Brett Brown another versatile, competitive defender on the perimeter, as well as somebody who’s capable both on and off the ball.
The Sixers backcourt isn’t thin, but they could use some additional long-term depth outside of Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz. Brown an explosive playmaker with a quick first step and a penchant for highlight dunks, but also brings some spot-up shooting and excellent off-ball movement to the table.
That, combined with his defensive toughness, is something that should quickly earn him a spot in the Sixers’ rotation. He’ll be 22 when the season starts, though, making him a good bit older than most sophomores.
Williams sticks with the theme of elite defensive bigs, boasting similar measurables to Jaren Jackson and showing plenty of upside on that side of the ball.
Not many players in college basketball can cover ground like Williams can. He slides his feet well on the perimeter, but thrives most when using his length to alter shots around the rim. He’s probably the best defender outside of Bamba and Ayton in this class.
The Grizzlies don’t have much to build on at this point, and will need to find insurance behind Marc Gasol eventually. A rangy defender who can act as a solid roll man and hit the occasional mid-range jumper (with some potential for a 3-point shot down the line) isn’t a bad place to start.
Al Horford was the comparison of choice for Carter entering the season, and the comparison still suits him well. He’d be the second lottery pick for the Suns, allowing them to add some frontcourt depth to a team that’s still figuring out whether or not Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss can find extended success.
At 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Carter already has a mature defensive frame. He’s also an advanced offensive player for his age, with nice footwork around the painted area and solid instincts as a passer.
Carter adds to that with his perimeter shooting. He has only attempted four 3-point shots this season, but hit two of them and has shown decent range in the past.
A strong start to the season — after a strong tournament run last March — could send Metu shooting up draft boards.
At 6-foot-9 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, Metu doesn’t have the greatest length for his position. He’s an explosive athlete who moves well laterally, though, which helps negate some of those concerns on both sides of the ball.
A lot of Metu’s production came in the post last season, where push shots and at-rim finishing made up the majority of his arsenal. Now he’s starting to show some more advanced skills in the post, as well as a reliable mid-range shot that could eventually extend beyond the 3-point line regularly. Those are both things scouts were looking for coming into the season.
Where Knox fits into the Aaron Gordon/Jonathan Isaac dynamic long term is a bit questionable, but the Kentucky product seems to be rising on draft boards despite an inconsistent start. He’s a plus athlete at 6-foot-9, and has the combination of length and mobility needed to guard two or three positions successfully.
Offensively, Knox hasn’t really figured out where he fits for Kentucky yet — which is understandable considering their youth and limited spacing. His jumper has come and gone, but seems to have stabilized in recent games — leading to a strong over-40 percent clip from deep.
He’s not the advanced isolation scorer many expected at this stage in his development, but uses his frame nicely around the basket when finishing off drives.
With their third lottery pick, the Suns go for the first non-Doncic internatonal prospect of the draft. Musa has been thriving overseas, hitting on 40.5 percent of his 3-point shots against high-end European competition.
Most concerns with Musa stem from his frame. He’s a thin 6-foot-9, and measures out with a wingspan that’s a shade shorter than his listed height. That leaves some serious question marks defensively.
He’s a decent athlete who competes on both ends, though, and possesses the offensive skills needed to carve out an NBA role. Aside from his outside shot, he’s also a capable mid-range shooter with some craft as a ball handler and advanced instincts.
Despite struggling with his shot in the early going, Brown is showing off the all-around versatility teams crave in today’s NBA. Oregon lost a lot of firepower this offseason as well, meaning Brown will be a continued focal point as the season progresses.
Even with talented wings like Andrew Wiggins and Jimmy Butler, Brown could give Minnesota some immediate value. His shooting should come around, while his off-ball instincts and secondary playmaking skills allow him to fit into a number of different spots on offense.
Defensively, Brown’s length (6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan) could allow him to effectively guard or switch between four positions with success as his frame fills out.
Trent is partnered with Grayson Allen and Trevon Duval in one of the country’s most dynamic backcourts. He wasn’t widely considered a one-and-done prospect entering the season, but has shown flashes that could lead him to commit if his improvement continues.
Inconsistency has always been the knock on Trent, and we’ve still seen some of that this season. He’s a plus shooter with nice off-ball instincts, but has gone cold at times after starting the season strong. He’s not the most dynamic ball handler either, which is ideally the next step in his development.
The Pelicans are locked into Jrue Holiday long term, but adding more depth alongside another former Duke frosh in Frank Jackson could be wise considering their lack of quality perimeter play in recent years.
Jackson brings excellent versatility to the defensive end, standing at 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan. He has the tools needed to defend either forward spot in isolation, and possesses great instincts when defending the rim on the weakside or getting into passing lanes.
Offensively, Jackson’s main appeal was his hot shooting last season. That hasn’t quite held up in the early going this season, but it should eventually even out somewhere in the middle. Essentially, 44.1 percent was never sustainable.
Still, Jackson has obvious appeal as an elite defensive prospect with some niche value offensively. Indiana could benefit from another defensively-inclined body at the forward spots who can play off of Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner.
Walker is off to a slow start this season, struggling from the field and not making much of an impact in the minutes he’s been given. He still has plenty of time to turn it around, though, and has all the basic tools you want in a mid-first round guard prospect.
At 6-foot-4, Walker’s 6-foot-11 wingspan gives him the ever-necessary luxury of guarding multiple positions. He’s also a solid shooter, despite hisearly struggles. If nothing else, his floor as a 3-and-D prospect in enough to draw NBA teams in.
The Knicks are set in the frontcourt for the time being, which allows them to invest in another long-term piece in the backcourt. Frank Ntilikina and Walker could be a nice two-man combo in a few years.
The Sixers need shooting and Allen brings that in droves. The Duke senior is primed for his best year yet, and is one of the early leaders for National Player of the Year — something that will keep him firmly in the draft conversation all season.
Lots has been made of Allen’s attitude in recent years, but he seems to have figured things out this season. He’s Duke’s undisputed leader, and it shows with how vocal he is — both on the court and on the bench.
Aside from shooting, Allen also has some playmaking ability with nice instincts in the pick-and-roll and some underrated athleticism. He has always been a borderline-first round pick, and last year’s struggles were just blown out of proportion behind Luke Kennard’s breakout.
Duval is a better prospect than No. 20, but his complete lack of a jump shot could cause some teams to sour on him. The Hawks, in need of a backup point guard, would be happy to jump on a potential steal.
At 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan, Duval is an impressive athlete with advanced handles on the offensive end. He can break down defenders off the dribble with ease, allowing him to get into the lane and create despite his limited shooting.
Duval’s instincts as a passer are what shine most offensively, and it’s his high basketball I.Q. that should attract NBA teams. He’s also extremely competitive defensively, using his length to disrupt passing angles and using his quick hands to force turnovers.
Robinson left the Western Kentucky campus a couple of times before deciding to skip school altogether. That means he’ll enter the draft without a collegiate resume, which is risky for someone who was largely viewed as a project coming into the season.
Regardless of his concerns, though, Robinson has elite physical tools for the five spot. He’s 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, allowing him to cover a lot of ground defensively and making him an easy lob target around the rim.
His offense is still a work in progress, but the Wizards’ limited depth underneath could make them pull the trigger on one of the highest defensive ceilings in a class loaded with talented big men.
Bridges is moving up a lot of draft boards right now, and could end up a lot higher than 22nd when it’s all said and done. He’s easily the most highly-touted junior in the country, and combines excellent 3-point shooting with defensive versatility the Nuggets could desperately use.
There really isn’t a more perfect fit for Denver at this stage in the draft. Bridges doesn’t do a ton as a creator, but is highly skilled off the ball — namely with his outside shot. He’s an elite spot-up threat, and thrives as a cutter with long strides and smooth finishing around the rim.
Add in his defense (aided by a 7-foot-1 wingspan) and you have the perfect 3-and-D compliment to Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap.
The Blazers lack a certain degree of depth behind Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, so adding someone like Melton — who can function well at both guard spots — makes sense.
Like a lot of prospects, Melton’s physical tools provide the basis for his appeal. He’s 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, allowing him to defend either guard spot. He’s also an impressive competitor on that end, getting into passing lanes and using that length to force ball handlers off kilter.
Offensively, Melton is best as a secondary creator, but has the potential to be more. He has nice vision in the pick-and-roll and handles himself well in transition, but lacks the advanced ball handling needed to play point guard full-time. That’s something he could improve upon with more practice..
Diallo has shown he can hit shots from the perimeter, something a lot of scouts worried about coming into the season. That, coupled with his elite athleticism, is enough to draw a first round look from a team like Cleveland.
Upside has always been the primary appeal with Dialllo. He’s an absolute freak athletically, and that bodes well for his ability to thrive in the open court. But even with a workable jumper, rudimentary handles and inconsistent touch around the rim mean he’s limited in halfcourt settings.
Plus athleticism and long arms make Diallo an intriguing defensive prospect as well, although he still has some work to do on that side of the ball.
Vanderbilt won’t return until at least December, but he remains ahead of schedule when it comes to rehabbing an injury that some initially believed could keep him out all season. At 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, Vanderbilt should be good enough to earn a first round spot without a full season.
He isn’t much of a shooter, but Vanderbilt has just about everything else in his arsenal. He’s a mobile defender who can switch onto the perimeter and function as a weakside rim protector, while his offense is highlighted by impressive passing instincts for an 18-year-old power forward.
There’s legitimate upside as a complimentary playmaker, while his athleticism should allow him to produce off the ball as a cutter — even if he isn’t hitting perimeter shots at a high clip. The Pistons make a play for upside here.
The Spurs taking the international route wouldn’t surprise too many people, and Kurucs seems to be flying under the radar this season. He was largely regarded as a mid-first round talent last season, and should remain in the top-30 conversation with another year in Barcelona under his belt.
He’s a skilled scorer at 6-foot-8 who the Spurs could throw into their always-productive player development system. His shot has been streaky in the past, but his mechanics are projectable, meaning there’s plenty of room for improvement.
A thin frame and limited length hurt him defensively, but expect to hear Kurucs’ name more once the draft gets closer.
Trier, along with Grayson Allen and Miles Bridges, is an early favorite for National Player of the Year. Arizona has struggled in recent games, but he remains a high-octane scorer who could bring an immediate punch to a professional second unit.
Iso Zo is the moniker Trier has earned over the past few seasons, and it fits his game well. Never much of a passer, his role at the next level will be based around his ability to score the ball in droves. He’s a strong spot-up shooter, but also possesses advanced handles and an excellent mid-range game when working off the bounce.
Awareness is something Trier will need to improve on at the next level, but he’s already a polish scorer who can step right into a spark-plug kind of role for a rebuilding team like the Nets.
At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, defense will be Battle’s calling card at the next level. He already has a mature frame at 20 years old, and adds to that with nice toughness on that end of the floor.
Offensively, Battle still has some question marks. His 3-point shot is solid and he has a nice mid-range pull-up game, but limited handles and lackluster awareness hurt him quite a bit.
A malleable athlete with 3-and-D potential is enough to tempt the Hawks, though, who can place him into one of the league’s best player development programs.
Alkins fractured his foot this offseason, but figures to return to action soon. As somebody who tested the draft waters last season, expect him to be on first round radars for a lot of competitive teams.
In this instance, Golden State gets another quality piece to add to their growing stash of young-but-underrated talent.
The name of the game with the Warriors is versatility, and Alkins fits that bill. He’s a capable playmaker in the pick-and-roll who showed plenty of potential as a secondary creator last season. He’s also a plus defender, standing 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan and plenty of strength for his size.
Richards is one of many highly-touted bigs in this year’s class, so a poor start to the campaign hasn’t helped his stock. Foul trouble has gotten to him on more than one occasion, while a limited offensive repertoire could give scouts some pause.
With that said, Richards did seem to flip the switch a bit on Wednesday — rattling off 25 points and 15 rebounds against IPFW, marking his best game of the season thus far.
Standing around the 7-foot mark with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Richards’ physical tools alone should entice the Celtics this late in the first round. He moves his feet well and has major promise as a defender, while he should settle in offensively as the season goes on.
Next: 2018 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0
Order based on standings as of 11/19/2017; Measurements and stats from DraftExpress