Another trade displays President Bryan Colangelo’s willingness to deplete Philadelphia 76ers NBA draft surplus inheritance remaining from Sam Hinkie
Drip drop. Drip drop. How do you move a mountain? One shovelful at a time. And so, the mountain disappears virtually in front of your very eyes. When Bryan Colangelo assumed control of the Philadelphia 76ers team, there was so very much to be excited about. Young players, copious number of NBA Draft picks. Low salary cap. Everyone knew it couldn’t last. But have recent actions by Philadelphia 76ers executives demonstrated prudence with the assets left to them by the previous administration? Or has the front office simply squandered talent and draft picks via trade so gradually that our asset depletiton is nearly invisible before our very eyes.
Jerry Colangelo arrived to the team to oversee Sam Hinkie. Ultimately, he simply kept a seat warm for his son while he negotiated the top role for the team. But during that time, Jerry Colangelo shared thoughts and concerns over both Nerlens Noel (just a rim protector) and Jahlil Okafor (he made mistakes).
Sam I am and off you go!
When Sam Hinkie resigned in April 2016, the Philadelphia 76ers had just completed a 10-72 season. But the team already had reason for optimism. Both Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, both drafted in 2014, joined the team in 2016. The team also had undrafted players T.J. McConnell and Robert Covington. The team had a surplus of NBA worthy centers in Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, plus a crop of young talent like Jerami Grant, Richaun Holmes, and more. But team pruning is necessary. Too many young players, all starving for minutes to help them develop, wilting on the roster.
The concern is not about the pruning. The abundance of quality future NBA Draft picks would help the team restock the roster. The Philadelphia 76ers had players who were either (A) not talented enough (B) talented enough but not the right fit (C) Talented enough, right fit, but in a deep position. So some level of “thinning the herd” had to be done. But Bryan Colangelo has a history of valuing deals over draft. And that concerns me, and it ought to concern others as well.
War chest of draft picks
But the hopes of fans were simple – thin the herd, but do not deplete the team’s roster nor draft surplus. By the time Sam Hinkie departed, the Philadelphia 76ers had amassed quite the collection of NBA Draft picks. They included:
2016 – Potential for four first round picks: The Philadelphia 76ers own first round pick, plus the right to swap that pick with the Sacramento Kings. The Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (1-3 protection). The Miami Heat first round pick (1-10 protection), and the Oklahoma City first round pick (1-15 protection).
PLUS –Three second round picks (Philadelphia, Denver, Golden State)
In 2016, the Philadelphia 76ers selected Ben SImmons (1st), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (24th), and Furkan Korkmaz (26th). Not only did the team emerge with three standouts, but with a sense of renewed optimism.
2017 NBA Draft
2017 – Potential for two first round picks: The Philadelphia 76ers own their first round pick, plus the right to swap that pick with the Sacramento Kings. The Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (1-3 protection).
In 2017, the Philadelphia 76ers selected Markelle Fultz (1st), Anzejs Pasecniks (25th), Johan Bolden (36th), Jawun Evans (39th), Sterling Brown (46th), Mathias Lessort (50th).
The Philadelphia 76ers dealt both Jawun Evans and Sterling Brown for cash considerations.
At this point in time, the Philadelphia 76ers may have met their trio. In essence, a championship team needs three standout players. In the assemblage of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz, the Philadelphia 76ers search for three standout players may be over. But now is the trickier part. Growing a team around three players and exercising enough patience to allow the team to develop organically.
Still to be realized picks
2018 – Two first round picks: The Philadelphia 76ers own their first round pick. The Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (unprotected).
PLUS Four second round picks (Philadelphia, Los Angeles Clippers, NY Knicks, better of Brooklyn Nets/Cleveland Cavaliers)
2019 – Two first round picks: The Philadelphia 76ers own their first round pick, plus the Sacramento Kings first round pick.
PLUS three second round picks (Philadelphia, NY Knicks, better of Milwaukee or Sacramento)
2020 and beyond
2020 – One first round pick
PLUS three second round picks (Philadelphia, NY Knicks, Brooklyn)
2021 – One first round pick
PLUS two second round picks (Philadelphia, NY Knicks)
Let’s examine the chronology of key trades since Bryan Colangelo took over. Included will be actual picks made, and their results:
April 2016- June 2016
The Philadelphia 76ers held three draft picks in the 2016 NBA Draft. In that draft, the team selected Ben Simmons with the first overall pick, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot with the 24th overall pick, and Furkan Korkmaz with the 26th overall pick.
The team elected to bring both Simmons and Luwawu-Cabarrot onto the roster immediately. For Furkan Korkmaz, the team elected to draft-and-stash him for a year in the Euroleague. But the trend for Bryan Colangelo began to be noticed even in the 2016 NBA Draft. While the team selected the best-player-available in Ben Simmons, Colangelo turned to foreign players in the draft, and favored a draft-and-stash scenario for Furkan Korkmaz over bringing both TLC and him to the team simultaneously.
Good moves, bad language
Free agents signings were logical, if not grandiose. The team signed shooting guard Gerald Henderson, point guard Sergio Rodriguez, and hybrid guard Jerryd Bayless. The reinforcement to the back court stabilized the tumultuous situation, and gave some depth to the very shallow positions on the team roster. They were economic free agents with flaws. Bayless had a bad wrist, Henderson had a bad hip, and Rodriguez had hamstring injuries.
While the moves were logical,the verbiage was not. Almost immediately after assuming control of the team, Bryan Colangelo professed to the world that the team had too many centers and he wanted to unload one if not two. The NBA immediately reacted by lowering the bid and value of both Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. And that set up the team for disappointment going forward.
July 2016- June 2017 basketball mind takes over
Early in the 2016-2017 season, point guard Kendall Marshall was traded to the Utah Jazz for two 2017 second round draft picks and Tibor Pleiss. Pleiss was subsequently placed on waivers. But the score of a soon-to-be-cut player for two second round picks was exciting. (Solid Move)
Jerami Grant was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Ersan Ilyasova and a heavily protected 2020 first round pick. (Questionable Move based on eventual outcome)
The Philadelphia 76ers traded Ersan Ilyasova to the Atlanta Hawks for Tiago Splitter and two second round draft events – one a pick swap, and the second a pick outright. (Questionable move based on eventual outcome)
Center traded first, Noel
The Philadelphia 76ers traded Nerlens Noel to the Dallas Mavericks for Justin Anderson, Andrew Bogut, and draft picks. To complete the deal, the 76ers waived Chasson Randle. Then the Philadelphia 76ers waived Bogut. While there is no mistaking the fact that Noel wanted out, the Philadelphia 76ers had an option to place a qualifying offer to Noel and elected not to do so. (unnoticeable depletion begins)
Heading to the 2017 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers traded their 1st round pick and a subsequent 1st round pick (either 2018 Lakers pick or more favorable of either 2019 Kings or Sixers pick) for the top pick of the 2017 NBA Draft. (Solid move, regardless of Markelle Fultz’s evenutal success.
76ers selected Markelle Fultz (1st) Anzecs Pasecniks (24th), Jonah Bolden (36th), and Mathias Lessort (50th). The Philadelphia 76ers sold picks 39 (Jawun Evans) and Sterling Brown (46) for cash. Plus they sold rights to Shawn Long over to Houston Rockets for cash.
July 2017 – present. How do you like me now?
Which brings us to today. Actually several days after the trade which sends Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas PLUS a 2019 second round pick to the Brooklyn Nets for power forward Trevor Booker. Two expiring rookie contracts plus a second round pick for an expiring veteran contract.
Some tout the playoff readiness of Booker as a win. Others tout the expulsion of Okafor at any cost as a win. But the reality is that two bench players with little playing time (76ers option) traded for a bench player with some playing time for this year only. I am happy for both Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas and truly believe both with earn a significantly greater role with the Nets.
Colangelo does not value second round picks
But lets get back to the trade where we “chipped in” a second round pick. That layer rests atop the decision to sell two second round picks in the 2017 NBA Draft. In previous trades, the return has been second round picks. Those picks have “potential” which is realized at the moment the pick is used to select a player.
Call me spoiled, but a second round pick can be used in multiple ways:
I – Used to select a player coveted by another team and converted into future picks
II- Traded outright to another team for future picks
III- Packaged to move into the first round
IV – Exchanged for multiple second round picks in current year.
V – When all else fails, use the pick to select a player for draft-and stash or Two-Way Contract option
But cashing out the picks seems like squandering. Tossing second round picks into a trade which has enough on it’s own merits to occur seems like squandering. If second round picks are valued so little, why accept so many in previously deals authored by the current front office? Previous reports of Colangelo at both Phoenix and Toronto concluded that Bryan Colanagelo loved “The Deal” more than “The Draft”
You are here
Ignore the unrealized potential of Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant, Nik Stauskas, Shaun Long, Jawun Evans and Sterling Brown. Let’s examine our current 2018 -2020 NBA Draft scenarios right now.
2018 – Potential for two first round picks: The Philadelphia 76ers own their first round pick, plus the Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (protected 1, 6-30).
PLUS Four second round picks (Philadelphia, Houston, better of Los Angeles Clippers or NY Knicks, better of Brooklyn Nets/Cleveland Cavaliers)
2019 – Potential for two first round picks: The Philadelphia 76ers will choose the lesser of either their first round pick or that of the Sacramento Kings first round pick (both protected 1, if Lakers pick does not convey to Boston).
PLUS two second round picks (Philadelphia, better of Milwaukee or Sacramento)
2020 and beyond
2020 – One first round pick
PLUS two second round picks (Philadelphia, better of NY Knicks or Brooklyn)
So after all the dealing, the net impact is:
2018 – loss of Lakers pick (2-5), swap out Houston second for lesser of Clippers/Knicks second
2019 – loss of either own first (2-30) or King’s first (2-30), whichever is greater (if Lakers pick does not convey). loss of less second round pick of either Milwaukee or Sacramento
2020 – loss of lesser second round pick of NY Knicks or Brooklyn
In the end, how much more valuable are the team assets after trading away:
Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant, Ersan Ilyasova, Nik Stauskas, Shaun Long, Jawun Evans and Sterling Brown? Actually, the value has declined.
Prestidigitaion
Cutting through the rhetoric, the cliche’s, and the pattern of trades, we discover assets have magically disappeared. But we got….. and as you search the roster for what we ended up with in trade we discover that this team has:
Power forward Trevor Booker for the remainder of this season.
Justin Anderson through the end of the 2018-2019 season (seldom played)
And that’s it. Seven NBA players gone. Two players on the roster. The remainder of the roster is either free agent signings or drafted players from picks accumulated from the previous GM. And there is the rub…
After trading away so many assets, you would expect some year, any future year, to show a pick up of NBA draft picks. No. Each future year is less now than before. But that’s not all.
Drip Drop. Philadelphia 76ers depleting assets at an alarming rate
There are two ways to score a trade. Traditionally, trades value the moment – the now. But those of us who understood Sam Hinkie’s methodology have learned an alternative. Realized versus potential.
In the traditional sense, the Jahlil Okafor / Nik Stauskas trade appears like a win win, just as described in this analysis, understanding that “fit” and “production” for players on their new teams is an educated guess.
Next: Sixers moved on from Jahlil Okafor two years too late
But the potential of this trade is a huge deficit for the Philadelphia 76ers in the alternative methodology. Much like the Jerami Grant trade for Ersan Ilyasova, the exchange of current production completely ignores future potential Okaofr and Stauskas each have many years of basketball ahead of them. The utility for Trevor Booker for this team is a partial year. Even weighing his remaining career, the Philadelphia 76ers gave up potentially 30 years of basketball play (assuming play from the 2nd round pick) for six years of play.
The fear is that the years of Hinkie surplus soon expire. Then Bryan Colangelo must eat what he kills. With only one first and one second round pick, the executive who loves the deal risks placing us back in the hole once more.