Philadelphia 76ers: Could Markelle Fultz really be traded?

Some sports pundits believe the Philadelphia 76ers would be wise to trade Markelle Fultz. Could that actually be the case?

In his rookie season in the NBA, Fultz has followed the honored Philadelphia 76ers tradition of spending much of his time injured and on the bench. He should be reevaluated in three weeks, but we’ll see if he’s ready to come back then.

Some people think Fultz will be held out the whole year as a precaution. Others say he’s not injured at all, and his “injury” as well as his shooting woes are due to mental issues. The conspiracy theory is that he has the yips, or he lost confidence in himself (like in the NFL, how David Carr became a horrible and scared quarterback because of how much he got hit in his first season).

Whatever. We’re here to talk about trades, and his injury only tangentially relates to that. Bill Simmons (formerly of Grantland, currently of The Ringer) wrote about a possible trade for Markelle Fultz, that would look like this:

Here’s a little snippet of what he had to say to justify the trade:

"Is the hope—repeat: HOPE—of the 19-year-old Fultz’s ceiling worth more than an established star like McCollum? There’s a unique window with Embiid and Simmons right now. Is hope the best you can do?EmbiidSimmonsCovingtonRedickMcCollumImagine going against those five dudes in a playoff series. How do you double Embiid in the half court? How do you handle Simmons on any fast break with elite shooters in three spots? How do you defend a McCollum-Embiid high screen? You’re looking at a defensive migraine from every angle. Redick (38.8 percent), Covington (41.6 percent) and McCollum (46 percent) average 18 3-pointers a game and make eight of them—they’re basically three of the 18 players averaging at least 2.5 made 3s per game. Only Golden State and Houston can throw out three shooters like that. If you can flip Fultz into McCollum, I would do it every day and twice on Sunday."

My initial reactions to this trade were very negative. I mean, we just drafted Fultz, why would we trade him so soon? Plus he could be a top-five player in the league someday; his ceiling is an athletic James Harden. Why would we trade that for a player that probably will never be better than a top-30 player?

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There’s also McCollum’s contract to think about. He’s in the first year of a four year, $107 million dollar contract. Trading for him guarantees that we can’t sign any big free agents next year, and we’ll be locked into the McCollum-Covington-Simmmons-Embiid core for at least the next two years.

However, maybe that’s not such a bad thing. The Philadelphia 76ers second most used lineup is Bayless, Redick, Covington, Simmons, Embiid. It has a net rating of 1.5 points per 100 possessions, mainly against other starters. It’s a slightly above average starting lineup.

Jerryd Bayless is fine, I guess. He shoots a little bit and dribbles a little bit and plays no defense. C.J. McCollum also does those things, except he is better at them. C.J. McCollum is to Jerryd Bayless as Mountain Dew is to Mello Yello: they’re supposedly similar, but one of them is so vastly superior to the other that there’s just no contest.

So basically, you can take a slightly above-average starting lineup, and sub in an All-Star for a replacement level player. Talk about an upgrade. Bill Simmons is absolutely correct when he says that lineup would be incredible, especially considering how important spacing is for the Philadelphia 76ers. But the question remains: is it worth it?

I don’t really care if we trade Amir Johnson. I like him more than most do, and he gives us solid minutes, but Trevor Booker is practically the same player. Plus, if this trade goes through, that would mean Dario Saric would be pushed back to the bench so McCollum could start. If we have Saric, Richaun Holmes, and Booker a bench bigs (plus two open roster spots), we won’t need Johnson.

I’m not super worried about losing our pick this year either. After the trade, it would probably end up in the mid-to-late 20s. That’s an asset to be sure, but not so significant that it’s a deal breaker.

The real question is whether or not it’s worth it to give up Fultz for McCollum. It all really comes down to how good you think he can be. Let’s just say for the sake or argument that there’s a 15 percent chance he’s a top-five player someday, a 50 percent chance that he’s an All-Star, a 15 percent chance he’s a solid starter, a 15 percent chance he’s a rotation player, and a five percent chance that he’s a bust. Which is more valuable: that distribution, or a 100 percent chance of having an All-Star?

I don’t know if there really is a right answer. It also depends on what exactly you want in a team. Want a team that chucks threes like the Rockets and could legitimately contend for a title right now and for the next few years? McCollum is your guy. Want to have a lockdown defender at every position and build a potential dynasty in a few years once the players develop? Fultz is your guy.

Next: 5 reasons not to be worried about the Sixers

As a Hinkite, I tend to lean more towards keeping the assets we have and playing the long game instead of making a win-now move. Fultz’s weird injury/shooting situation has me worried, and the East is wide open right now, but I think we should keep Fultz and play the long game. Weigh in down below what you think too.

Assessing a Markelle Fultz trade(?)

By Luke Swiatek | Dec 12, 2017

Some sports pundits believe the Philadelphia 76ers would be wise to trade Markelle Fultz. Could that actually be the case?