With recent disappointments on the basketball court, an easy way to placate Philadelphia 76ers fans is simply looking forward to the 2018 NBA Draft, the key held by the Los Angeles Lakers
The Philadelphia 76ers have fallen somewhat in optimism and prestige. After a two-game losing streak to the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers at home, the team is now 14-13. While that pushes playoff hopes into a concerned realm, the team has improved the position in the 2018 NBA Draft in two ways.
The penalty for losing NBA games is a better selection in the upcoming NBA Draft. While that salve relieved the pain in previous seasons, I no longer hold hope for similar effect this year. And so, jumping from a mid-20 to a high teen pick in the 2018 NBA Draft likely does not thrill you. Nor should it if you hold hopes for the Philadelphia 76ers to earn a playoff spot this year.
Restocking the roster
But there is more to meet the eye than simply the playoffs. NBA rosters require constant vigilance. And a savvy person handling the purse strings. As NBA teams get hot, players want to be paid handsomely. To do so, savings must happen elsewhere. Some teams simply pay the stars and load up the balance of the roster with inexpensive role players.
But the current CBA allows for teams to get built in discounts from players arriving via the NBA Draft. Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers must leverage future drafted players to balance out the roster’s salary demands. The 76ers are a fortunate team, as they have a solid NBA draft presence in 2018.
Lakers pick: who gets it?
But another team will likely not be so lucky. The Los Angeles Lakers, currently owners of a 10-16 record, will be hard pressed to get to post season discussions in the loaded Western Conference. So they have the 2018 NBA Draft to look forward to. Or would have, if not for an almost probability-defying streak of three consecutive number two picks in the NBA Draft, all the while the slip out of the top tier picks meant conveying that pick to the patiently-waiting Philadelphia 76ers.
Swarm and Sting
There is no wait this season. There is no protection to save the Lakers first round pick. It will convey. The last question remaining: to which team? Well, tied for 23rd place in the NBA means they have a mere 7.2 percent chance of selecting from two or three. That means the Philadelphia 76ers sit on a 92.8 percent chance of getting that pick, and a remote 2.8 percent chance of selecting first.
NBA Lottery rules favors 76ers
While the season remains rather fresh, there is plenty of wiggle room for the Lakers pick. But let’s discuss the NBA Lottery and the Lakers final standing in the NBA. The Boston Celtics own the Lakers pick between picks two-five. If the Lakers finish 30th to 27th in the league, their pick has a probability of conveying to Boston at each selection. But at 26th in the league, the Lakers will no longer have a chance at the fourth pick in the draft. At 27th in the league, the Lakers no longer have a chance at either the fourth or fifth pick in the NBA Draft.
As the Lakers improve in the standings, the risk of their pick landing in Boston’s hands diminish. On one hand, that’s great for the 76ers. On the other hand, the landing spot of that selection falls as well. Currently tied for 23rd spot in the NBA, the Lakers pick is only 7.2 percent likely to become a Boston Celtics selection. Still, if it does, the best it can do (below a top pick) is to land as the eighth pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. So there is a trade off.
Why will it matter for a post-playoff team?
The initial argument about why this matters is predictable. Why should this matter to a post playoff Philadelphia 76ers team. After all, the goal is to win championships, right? Not win repeatedly on NBA Draft nights…
8 Points, 9 Seconds
Well, if you examine the team’s current roster, you will notice some curious roster holes open up in the 2018-2019 season. The team has just 11 players currently under contract for the 2018 -2019 season. The team projects to lose J.J. Redick, Amir Johnson, and Trevor Booker from the roster, plus the team traded away both Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas for Booker, and are currently carrying only 14 players.
Conveyor belt keeps rolling
Now that is not saying that the team will not consider retaining any player with an expiring contract. Nor does it assure all players currently on the team projected to play next season will do so. But in terms of roster projections, the currently payroll projection is a great place to start.
Events can modify those presumptions. Who plays well in the playoffs could, for example, shift the priorities for the front office. Slumps or surges by players in their statistics could play a role as well. But in the end, players mature, and age, simultaneously. An NBA career is a conveyor belt of sorts. To sustain success, the team must continue to add young talent to develop for future success.
Talent in the pipeline
Now we know that the team has three draft-and-stash players awaiting their turn at NBA play. In 2018, look for Latvian center Anzejs Pasecniks, Australian power forward Jonah Bolden, and French small forward Mathias Lessort to sign onto the roster.
Even signing all players in 2018 (which is no certainty), the Philadelphia 76ers will have at least one more slot unfilled. Should the team sign a player, it changes little for the future of the team. We’ve witnessed how drafting Ben Simmons is an incredible compliment to Joel Embiid. And fans await the same complimentary play from Markelle Fultz when he returns to the lineup.
Don’t ignore logic
So there is no logical reason for Philadelphia 76ers fans to ignore the fundamentals of how the team grew competitive to this point. And with the depth of talent projected in the 2018 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers would love to have an opportunity to harvest a lottery-pick talent from that class.
As of right now, the Philadelphia 76ers look to select six times in the 2018 NBA Draft. Two first round picks and four second round picks. As of December 13, 2017, Tankathon.com projects those picks at 7,20,40,41,47,60. Only the Atlanta Hawks (picking first) and the Phoenix Suns (picking fifth and 13th) have more value in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Who to choose?
Despite the current 14-13 record for this team, the Philadelphia 76ers are rapidly improving and have a fairly young, deep, talented roster for the immediate future. With the arrival of the 2017 NBA drafted players, there will be few holes to concern the front office. And so, the opportunity falls to selecting the best player available who fits the team scheme.
The Philadelphia 76ers will likely select from six to ten in 2018 if they land the Lakers pick. Still, the 2018 NBA Draft holds plenty of talent in the lottery picks. I am not convinced that Michael Porter Jr. doesn’t fall to the second half of top-10 picks. He is a talented young man, but a year off of NCAA competition merely means he is a high school basketball player entering professional basketball. I cannot imagine the top five NBA teams will risk their pick on such an unknown.
Two picks round one
Lest we forget the fact, the Philadelphia 76ers will have two first round picks to use. As such, Michael Porter Jr. is a definite option for the team. And I’m not convinced that even the Philadelphia 76ers picking in the top 10 will definitely choose him. There is a lot of college basketball to be played, and the ultimate test is what is on video. He is a talented rookie of course. But will the 76ers scouting crew recommend him based on faith?
But the Philadelphia 76ers will have both Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Furkan Korkmaz at wings, to add to dept behind Markelle Fultz and Robert Covington. With so much versatility on the roster, will the team look to add a rookie wing?
2018 NBA Draft class loaded with bigs
There will be plenty of options for the team. And surprisingly, this draft class is loaded with talented bigs. But even so, the Philadelphia 76ers needs are not common to every NBA team. And so, they will have specific targets in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Right now, the depth behind Joel Embiid is Richaun Holmes, and the flexibility of versatile players like Amir Johnson and Dario Saric, neither of whom should be expected to play center for any duration. While the team has Anzecs Pasecniks overseas, and good reasons to bring him to the team in 2018, he is a young rookie with a learning curve. As such, there is no assurance the team will benefit from his play in year one.
New bigs means new potential
But with a new crop of versatile bigs hoping for an NBA career, the Philadelphia 76ers are bound to land one with talent and intrigue. There are so many to choose from. Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton, Duke’s Marvin Bagley, Texas’ Mohammed Bumba, Michigan State’s Miles Bridges, Texas A&M’s Robert Williams, Duke’s Wendall Carter, Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr., UNLV’s Brandon McCoy, Kentucky’s P.J. Washington, and Kentucky’s Kevin Knox round out the top ten bigs for now.
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There is a lot of basketball to be played in both the NBA and NCAA ranks. But the 2018 NBA Draft is a good topic to remain versed in. Right now, the Los Angeles Lakers appear to be just good enough to avoid a top five selection, but just bad enough to remain in the lottery-pick section of the 2018 NBA Draft. And so, that gives the Philadelphia 76ers fans one more topic to discuss. After all, the 2018-2019 roster is less than a year away.