The Sixer Sense
Fansided

Philadelphia 76ers rebuilding process won’t be replicated in NBA

By Bret Stuter

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 16: The lottery drawing begins inside the lottery room during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 16: The lottery drawing begins inside the lottery room during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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BROOKLYN, NY – DECEMBER 17: Jahlil Okafor
BROOKLYN, NY – DECEMBER 17: Jahlil Okafor /

Reason I – NBA team are impatient despite creating a system requiring patience

Let’s face it. No NBA team can succeed by building through the NBA Draft instantly. As much as fans fear the NBA Draft giving too much clout to an opposing team, it takes an NBA player several years to approach their ceiling on the basketball court.  The odds of hitting a top draft pick as the worst NBA team was no better than 25 percent.  That means that the worst team in the NBA has a 75 percent chance of selecting second or lower.

NBA rookies are no certainty.  If you look back to any NBA Draft, stars can emerge from anywhere in round one. The secret to success in an NBA Draft is patience. Young players can succeed if you do not ask too much of them.  The Philadelphia 76ers, entering the NBA Draft with a long term view, accepted the greater risk inherent with choosing an injured player in the NBA Draft. Nerlens Noel needed a year to heal. Joel Embiid required two years. Investing that much into a player who won’t produce for the team immediately is gutsy.  Few teams are willing to do so. And those are just the players with injury.

Fit and upside is guesswork

So many fans believe the NBA Draft is a science. It’s not. Of the first ten players selected in the 2015 NBA Draft, two are playing with new teams. Many are filling a role off the bench. A majority have yet to average more than ten points a game.  So the entire argument about NBA teams need to scout better takes a dive.

Scouting is only part of the equation. Fit is another. Upside is still another.  A great post player with limited speed will hinder a team focusing on pace, space, and passing. He may be adept at scoring 30 points a game, but he simply does not fit the team’s focus.  So too that a player who dominates at the college level has to prove himself in the pros.  So the general manager who selects top draft picks in the NBA will likely not be around to enjoy their emergence as an NBA star – even if that comes to pass. More likely, the player will plateau rather quickly, leaving the front office with the challenging decision of keep or try to deal for a better fit.