The Philadelphia 76ers can score, pass, rebound, and run a fast pace. But the team struggles with ball control, three-point shooting and defense. To get to the NBA Playoffs, the team must fix things quickly. But which stat is the top priority?
The Philadelphia 76ers head coach is Brett Brown. Prior to his accepting the head coach position for the Philadelphia 76ers, he served as San Antonio Spurs’ assistant head coach under their head coach, Gregg Popovich. Over the years, “Pop” has managed to find consistent success with the Spurs, never winning fewer than 55 games in any one season over the past five years. And the common thread for the Spurs over that span of time is solid defense.
Now, when you look at the Philadelphia 76ers, you don’t see a similar story. There is a team fighting to improve, and so far at 19-19, are finding modest success. And as you examine the team’s production, you find a team scoring 108.6 points per game – good enough for sixth in the NBA. Conversely, this team is allowing 107.9 points per game, which comes in at an abysmal 23rd in the league.
Defending 76ers defense
So the average fan looks at that statistic and concludes the team needs to focus on improving team defense. But is that accurate? We examined the duality of the Philadelphia 76ers defense recently. In that article, we revealed why there is such a dichotomy of opinions about the Sixers D. While the team is surrendering points, that largest factor comes from a team running such a fast-paced cadence on the basketball court. At 103.2, the Philadelphia 76ers generate 103.2 posssesions per game. Compare that to defensive standout teams like the San Antonio Spurs (96.51) or the Boston Celtics (97.72).
In short, comparing NBA team effectiveness simply normalizes points surrendered into 100 possessions per game. For the Spurs and the Celtics, that raises their points per game. For the 76ers, that reduces their points per game. The opposite is true on offense. The 76ers offense gets reduced due to normalization. And likewise, the Spurs and Celtics offensive output is increased. Ultimately, when normalized to 100 possessions per game, the 76ers defense is good for seventh in the NBA while the team offense is marginally good for 15th in the league.
Philly Proficient at Pace Pass, but what about…
The concept of the Pace Space Pass hinges upon having a superior team which executes three components very well:
FanSided
First of all, the team must run a quick paced attack which continues to pressure the opposing team defense. As the basic foundation of the team, pace is a rhythm which is implemented regardless of the team proficiency. The reason is that you cannot simply “go faster” after the team improves. And that pace-factor is likely the major contributor to the trade which sent both Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas to the Brooklyn Nets. They did not generate much speed on the court. Meanwhile, the 76ers are second best in the league at pace.
Pass!
Secondly, the team must pass very well. This compounds the pressure upon the defense by creating ball movement. That ball movement forces the defense to react, and creates open shots by luring defenses one way, and then passing back against traffic to the open shooter. Once more, the team is succeeding in this role. Their passing, as measured by NBA Advanced stats Assist percentage, is good for second in the league.
But the third point is space.. .and that’s a tough nut to crack in terms of single statistic. But it does involve spacing out shots, and as such aims at improving shot accuracy.
Space, the final frontier
Spacing on the basketball court translates into getting open looks at the basket. And as long as the Philadelphia 76er have Simmons, Embiid, Redick and Covington healthy, the fifth starter is a basic plug-and-play for now. Most recently, that is the role for Dario Saric, who has excelled as number five. But he is benefitting from the cast of characters around him in a big way. Here’s why:
Air Alamo
When Joel Embiid is on the basketball court, he pressures the paint of the opposing team. Many try to double team him, and that has some chance of success. But Embiid is solid, and can pass out to an open shooter or draw the foul. By drawing a foul, he places pressure on the depth of other teams.
Simmons pulls defenders to the paint
Ben Simmons gives the team a flexible look. He can drive to the paint but can draw defenses to him and pass out. With both Simmons and Embiid on the court, the opposing team must commit three to defend the basket, and that means one perimeter shooter gets an open look. And where do those defenders come from? The perimeter.
So space is a direct contributor to three point shooting accuracy, and driven from three point shooting attempts. At one point, this team lived and died by the perimeter shot. But with a pulse of injuries impacting major players, the 76ers have diminished that long-range assault. As of Monday, January 8, 2017, the Philadelphia 76ers attempt just 29.7 three-points shots per game. That is good for 12th in the league, a surprising spot for the perimeter shooting roster. Factoring in the Philadelphia 76ers attempt the third most shots in the NBA at 87.1 shots per game, and you see that the team is shying away from that perimeter shot. Is that a good thing?
In space, nobody hears you scream.
That is why the likes of both Robert Covington and J.J. Redick are back on an upwards trend. In fact, with the exclusion of Jerryd Bayless, the Philadelphia 76ers three-point shooters are all better in recent games. But with a league average of 36.5 percent shooting from the perimeter, the Philadelphia 76ers running 17th in the league at 35.8 percent is still struggling. So if the team can improve one aspect of the “core” scheme, three-point shooting appears to be a good place to start.
Daily Knicks
So that is a good place for the team to start. With the team averaging just 35.8 percent, who becomes “at risk” as the NBA trade deadline approaches? Well G Jerryd Bayless at 37 percent comes to mind. But the team could entertain divesting from SG Justin Anderson (31 percent), SG Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (30.8 pecent), Amir Johnson (20 percent), and even Trevor Booker (0 percent).
Turnaround turnovers, free throws, and fouls
Two areas that continue to blemish the Philadelphia 76ers is the lack of ball control, the team’s tendancy to commit so many personal fouls, and poor free throw shooting. To begin, the Philadelphia 76ers turnover the ball frequently. In fact, their 17.8 turnovers per game is not only the worst in the league, it’s 1.2 turnovers below the 29th place Los Angeles Lakers. That feels like a problem with youth, as nearly half of those turnovers fall upon Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. But that is more than just two players. Practically every player who touches the ball for Philadelphia with more than 17 minutes of playing time coughs up the ball at better than a 1.3 turnover per game clip.
Compounding the turnovers is personal fouls. The Philadelphia 76ers commit them, lots of them, per game. At 23.6 personal fouls per game, that earns them last place in the NBA. Fouls per se may not be a critical transgression, but with a team aiming at a fast pace, numerous fouls gives the opponent time to regroup. It also places our players in foul trouble, which either tampers their aggressiveness on defense, or puts them on the bench in critical closing minutes in a game.
Expensive free throws
But perhaps the single deficiency to this team is the lackluster performance at the free throw line. Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers succeed on 75.5 percent of their free throw shots. While that seems okay, it’s only good enough for 22nd in the league.
Air Alamo
And it creates opportunities for opposing teams to leverage against the Philadelphia 76ers in a post-season forum. On one hand, Joel Embiid is good at the foul line, as he scores 80 percent of his shots. On the other hand, Ben Simmons is a far cry less effective, scoring at a 56 percent rate on his free throws.
Foul foul line
Simmons scores at 51 percent from the floor. Embiid scores at 48.9 percent from the floor. If Embiid is driving for the shot, his points per shot come in at .978 points per shot from the floor. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons comes in at 1.12 points per shot from the floor. But from the foul line, Joel Embiid averages 1.6 points for two foul shots, while Simmons averages 1.12. To an opponent, it is a tough decision to foul Embiid, but not much debate to foul Ben Simmons.
The reason is this: The foul likely only costs the team one point, and they will likely get the rebound and a possession by which they can quickly score two or three points. On top of that, a slow-paced opponent controls the game tempo by fouling Simmons. It neutralizes the 76ers offense should the Sixers find themselves in a scoring run.
Mr. Fix-it
The bottom line is that this team must improve to have serious hopes for succeeding in post-season, or even getting there. The three greatest areas of improvement right now are:
I – Free Throw Accuracy
II- Turnovers and
III- Personal Fouls.
The most critical is foul shooting. Until that improves (and I’m looking at you Ben Simmons), that gives opponents the opportunity to dictate tempo and outcome risk-free. If the Philadelphia 76ers enter the playoffs with a Simmons at sub-60 percent at the foul line, you can bet that the fourth quarter will be spent trying to navigate through a Hack-A-Ben strategy. That will result in one of three outcomes: the Philadelphia 76ers’ fans will be heartbroken to lose post-season games at the foul line, the 76ers will try to thwart that strategy by placing T.J. McConnell in to bring the ball down the court, but that limits the 76ers perimeter attack, or Simmons will get into a groove.
Improve perimeter shooting
After that, the team should look hard at getting better accuracy at three-point range. That can simply take the form of selecting better shots with the current roster. But ideally it could translate into a deal at the trade deadline for a solid perimeter shooter. Can the team find someone? Perhaps if they package a player and consider adding 2018 second round picks as the value of the incoming player increases.
Next: How to get through this 76ers hiatus
Finally, the team should look to improve their offense. That can happen simply by adding the right player to fill the open roster spot, or by sorting through players on 10-day contracts to see who meshes best with the team roster. The offense may even improve when Markelle Fultz returns to health and adds his unique skillset to a lineup built to his strengths. Right now, this Philadelphia 76ers team is improving, and is back in the hunt for a playoff spot. But as far as solidly competing when the team gets there? Not yet. Close, but not quite there. In the end, this team has to clean-up some things to be taken seriously as a post-season contender. But this is still a young team and there is time.