It’s too early for definitive conclusions, but what might the 2017 NBA Draft lottery look like if it happened today?
For Philadelphia 76ers fans, the 2017 NBA Draft is quickly becoming a nightmare. After trading a future pick to move up and select Markelle Fultz first overall, the former Washington standout has forgotten how to shoot. Now, we’re left wondering what his future holds at the NBA level.
That alone has left many around the league baffled. The man who was touted as the best point guard prospect since Kyrie Irving somehow, someway — whether it be shoulder-related or not — changed his shooting mechanics in the worst way possible. The fact that we don’t know how it happened makes it even worse.
But that isn’t the only intriguing storyline from this year’s draft class. There’s also a ton of impressive talent outside of Fultz, something many projected given the depth of this year’s class. Rick Carlisle is even comparing it to the 1984 draft.
There are plenty of players with star potential, both in the lottery and outside of it. Kyle Kuzma was the 27th pick and now he’s a key part of the Lakers’ future. O.G. Anunoby went 23rd and looks like a stud on both ends for a much-improved Raptors team.
All of those storylines lead us to now, the season’s midway point. It’s too early for concrete assessments of any player (even Fultz), but we do have a solid sample size to work with. The sheer depth of talent makes re-drafting this class even more challenging/entertaining/impossible.
Let’s dive in and give it a shot.
The irony here is painful, but the Sixers would be hard-pressed not to pick Tatum. His combination of individual scoring prowess and efficiency is rare for any player, much less a 19-year-old making the leap to NBA basketball. Of all the picks in a loaded draft class, he seems like the best asset moving forward.
It’d be interesting to see how Tatum fared in a higher-usage role as well. Part of his success comes from playing off of Kyrie Irving and Al Horford in Brad Stevens’ system, but the Sixers have a clear niche Tatum could fill.
Even with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid pacing the offense, Tatum’s skill set would add a new dynamic to Brett Brown’s rotation. He’d also give Philly more depth on the wing, which they severely lack at this point.
It’s too early to write off Fultz, but you can’t pass on a talent of Tatum’s magnitude unless the former has a clear path back to full strength.
Ball hasn’t been great this season, but he’s starting to pick things up. Over his last 10 (active) games, the Big Baller is averaging 13.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.2 assists while shooting a much-improved 38 percent from deep. The instincts and vision were always there, it’s the shot that had most people concerned.
More from Draft
- Philadelphia 76ers Ten Biggest Mistakes of the Last Ten Years
- The Sixers sign four undrafted players after the NBA Draft
- Players the Sixers should target in undrafted free agency
- How to Watch the 2023 NBA Draft as a Sixers Fan
- 2023 NBA Mock Draft: 5 wing prospects 76ers could target
I was pretty low on Ball heading into the draft, but he hasn’t given the Lakers enough reason to avoid him in a re-draft. His rebounding is an underrated plus, while he’s starting to become more comfortable in his current role — a role that’s far different, and far more complex, than the role he had at UCLA.
The Lakers essentially threw Ball into the fire, giving him lead guard duties in a system that’s more reliant on the pick-and-roll. That, when paired with his early shooting woes, played a big part in his extended struggles.
Now that the offense is coming around and Ball’s defense continues to impress, the Lakers stick with him at No. 2 and continue to bet on his ceiling as a generational playmaker.
With Tatum off the board, the Celtics grab a very Celtics pick in Donovan Mithcell. He’s already showing promise as a go-to scorer with the Jazz, giving Boston somebody who can play next to Irving at the two and carry the second unit when needed.
I had Mitchell seventh on my draft board in June, which was higher than most at the time and lower than he is now. His athletic tools were always promising, while his shot projected better than the percentages suggested at Louisville. Efficiency might be a lingering issue, but he’s already a proven volume scorer with a high defensive ceiling.
The next step in Mitchell’s progression is his playmaking. He flashed lead guard potential in college and has built on that in the NBA, but there’s still plenty of room for improvement. Boston won’t need him to be the primary ball handler too often, but it could come in handy when his minutes are staggered with the reserves.
It’s virtually impossible to pinpoint exactly where Fultz would land in a re-draft. He’s obviously talented enough, but his broken shot isn’t exactly a confidence-booster. The Suns need a point guard, so perhaps they’re willing to roll the proverbial dice at four.
If we assume he returns to UW form, Fultz and Devin Booker could be one heck of a duo in the backcourt. Fultz’s blend of body control and pace is highly unique. He never seems rushed, easily working his way into pull-ups or using his change of pace to keep defenders off balance and get to the rim.
Defense would be an issue, but it’s not worth worrying about at this point. Fultz’s physical tools and instincts should translate into solid defense in time, and that’s regardless of what actually happens with that jumper of his.
There’s a chance Phoenix is flipping a coin between disappointment and steal here, but it’s a risk worth taking.
Kuzma is arguably the steal of the draft. It’s tough to move somebody from the late-20s to five after just half a season, but Kuz has done everything needed to warrant that kind of leap. It also gives Sacramento a chance to grab their long-term accompaniment to Skal Labissiere (and Willie Cauley-Stein) in the frontcourt.
Aside from his hot shooting in Summer League, Kuzma has built up an impressive all-around game. He’s already a dangerous scorer off the dribble, boasting a fluid pull-up and plenty of quickness when attacking the lane. He couples that with a nice bag of tricks in the paint.
His passing is another positive. He flashed some versatility during his three seasons at Utah, but his outlet passing and vision on drives is a new development. He’s adding to his game at an unreal rate, which means the improvement should continue.
I had O.G. eighth on my draft board in June. His defensive profile was always impressive, even if his injury left some teams worried. He wasn’t expected to recover as quickly as he did, which is part of the reason Toronto was able to steal him at 23.
Now that we’ve seen Anunoby in action, though, it’s clear his two-way potential was worth a top-10 pick. The Magic still need a point guard, but Anunoby’s elite defensive presence and rapid offensive growth is too much to pass up on.
A forward combo of Aaron Gordon and Anunoby is legitimately something you can build around. Their offense might falter without more reliable shot-making, but Anunoby has shown he can space the floor and Gordon continues to add to his offensive repertoire. It’s a good starting point for a rebuild that needs a spark.
The Bulls nailed this pick. This wasn’t a sentence I expected to be typing in 2018.
Markkanen looks every bit the part of a top-seven pick, combining elite shooting with some improved scoring around the rim and promising flashes defensively. He’ll never be a high-end defender, but he’s not nearly as lost as most people expected coming out of Arizona.
As a 7-footer, Markkanen’s shooting ability is already a rare weapon. He joined Dirk Nowitzki as the only player of that height to hit eight threes in a game a few days ago, which isn’t something any rookie should be capable of doing. He’s also averaging the most 3-point makes of any rookie all-time. Again, somebody his size shouldn’t be doing that.
If nothing else, Markkanen’s size and shooting allows him to bend defenses to their breaking point as a pick-and-pop threat. If he continues to add more off the dribble and rounds out the rest of his game, Lauri could be the Bulls’ first All-Star in the post-Jimmy Butler era in the not-so-distant future.
In turns out LeBron was right. Frank Ntilikina has been solid for the Knicks this season, but Smith’s offensive potential goes well beyond anything Frank can offer.
Smith has had ups and downs like most rookie point guards, but continues to give Dallas a capable weapon at all three levels. Efficiency is an issue, but he’s an effective pull-up threat whose explosiveness in the lane makes him a dangerous finisher inside. He’s also an underrated passer in the pick-and-roll, although turnovers have piled up on occasion.
Related Story: 2018 NBA Draft Big Board 4.0
If he can show some growth defensively and improve his consistency in the coming years, Smith has the potential to be the best point guard in this year’s class. Lonzo and Fultz are the presumptive frontrunners in that department, but Smith has always had the talent needed to compete for that title.
I had Smith third on my draft board in June.
Jackson was my No. 2 guy in June, so I’ll probably regret slotting him this low. Normally you’d stick with the top prospects up front, but the depth of talent in this year’s class forces parody. Jackson just hasn’t shown enough to beat out players like Donovan Mitchell and Kyle Kuzma.
With that said, Dallas gets the luxury of going Best Player Available here. Jackson is an impressive athlete at 6-foot-8 with legitimate playmaking chops and one of the higher defensive upsides in this year’s class. Not all of that has come to fruition yet, but I’d be willing to bet on a big leap in his second year.
While at Kansas, Jackson ran the offense in spurts. He’s still not much of a shooter, but can use his explosiveness to get into the lane and make plays as a pick-and-roll threat, whether it be finishing around the rim or dishing it elsewhere. Adjusting to NBA defenses has been a challenge, but he’s showing positives off the ball.
Isaac has only played in 15 games this season due to injury. He’s another one of my top-five guys who drops out due to the depth of this year’s class.
In his brief time on the court, Isaac has done a lot of what made him a lottery pick last season. He fits the stretch four archetype perfectly, while his energy on the glass and defensive versatility gives him a strong floor. His shot is still a bit inconsistent, but it should come around eventually.
The defensive side of the ball was always the root of Isaac’s appeal, even if it wasn’t talked about enough. Somebody who can switch between three positions and cover the perimeter at 6-foot-11 holds a lot of value, while his weakside shot blocking was an underrated attribute at FSU. The Blazers essentially upgrade their Zach Collins pick here.
The Hornets can use just about any long term help at this point. I’m not sure how much longer Kemba Walker is suiting up in teal and purple, while Dwight Howard and Marvin Williams aren’t exactly sustainable frontcourt options. They’re painfully short on young talent and Collins is the best player left on the board.
For many of the same reasons he thrived at Wake Forest, Collins is thriving off the bench with Atlanta. His efficiency around the rim is among the best in the league while his rebounding has always been a calling card. Add his improved defensive presence — he’s averaging over a block per game — and you have a starting caliber forward with room to grow.
Collins is shooting just 16.7 percent from deep and hasn’t done much to extend his range, but that’s something that can always improve. He wasn’t much of a shooter with the Deacs, so any progression is a positive sign.
I’ve always been lower on Fox than most, so 12th feels like a pretty natural landing spot. Reggie Jackson is fading fast and the Pistons are running low on point guard depth, so Fox could easily step in as a short-term backup and long-term replacement.
The concerns with Fox are universally known at this point. He has an impressive blend of speed and agility but lacks a relibale jumper. He showed some flashes of a pull-up mid-ranger at Kentucky, but he hasn’t been terribly consistent with it this season. Being a rookie point guard is tough, though, so he deserves some more time to work things out.
Defensively, Fox hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. His thin frame was always a concern, albeit one that often got overlooked. He makes a lot of rookie mistakes, but the energy and physical tools are there. Future improvement can be expected.
Frank has been everything you could have expected and then some for New York this season. His ceiling isn’t crazy high, but he’s a quality defender who can run the pick-and-roll and make advanced passes at 19.
The Jazz, with Mitchell out of the equation, need a new investment at point guard. Ricky Rubio is someone Frank can learn from, while the rest of Utah’s rotation is set up well to incorperate his skill set. Joe Ingles is another capable playmaker, allowing Ntilikina to spend time off the ball and split duties as the primary ball handler.
Even if he’s more of a niche player offensively, Ntilikina’s defensive versatility on the perimeter should keep him in the lottery. He’ll be a plus two-way player for the foreseeable future.
The Heat stick with their original pick to close out the lottery. Adebayo has come on strong as of late, showing more advanced post moves and some growth as a passer. For somebody who was labeled an athlete above all else entering the draft, that’s significant improvement.
Defense is still where Adebayo’s stock is rooted, though. At 6-foot-10, his impressive blend of strength, speed and athleticism allows him to defend at a high level across the spectrum. He can move his feet on the perimeter, cause problems in the pick-and-roll, and protect the rim. He’s easily the most underrated two-way talent in this class.
One area of critique is his jumper, or lack thereof. Adebayo hasn’t done much to extend his range, so developing a workable mid-range shot should be the next step in his development. Nonetheless, the Kentucky product has earned his spot as the final lottery pick in 2017.