Robert Covington must step up for Philadelphia 76ers

After J.J. Redick‘s injury, the Philadelphia 76ers are scrambling to find perimeter shooting. But the key lies squarely on the shoulders of wing Robert Covington.

The Philadelphia 76ers have once more learned that perimeter marksman J.J. Redick will be sidelined with injury. And so, a team which struggles with three-point accuracy has lost one of the lineup’s most accurate three point shooters. And that’s a problem. So far this season, Redick is shooting 40.5 percent from three-point range, best on the team. And his 17.9 points per game is second best on the team.  So somewhere, the Philadelphia 76ers must regroup and compensate for his absence, even if just for a short period.

Options

Some believe that the team simply has no alternative to send to the perimeter while Redick is on the bench. Still other believe that this creates an opportunity for the team promote both two-way contract players, James Young and Demetrius Jackson, to the NBA to see if either can make up some of Redick’s production. Still, they will be fighting unfamiliarity as they strive to excel at the arc.

The best alternative to fill the temporary absence of J.J. Redick from the lineup is to promote an existing player to a more featured role.  Right now, the team is slotting Jerryd Bayless into the lineup to pick up on Redick’s starts. But the true player to step up already has a starting role for the team.

RoCo alternative

Another logical choice is simply to shift the roles of defense and offense around to emphasize small forward Robert Covington’s offense in Redick’s absence. So far this season, the closest to having a similar scoring impact from beyond the arc is Covington.  While T.J. McConnell affords the team a solid accuracy at the arc at 40 percent, he only attempts one three-point shot per game.  So it falls upon Covington, who shoots 38.5 percent on 7.2 attempts per game to sync in with the team as the outside shooter.

But that means other duties must shift elsewhere.

Right now, Covington is typically locked in on the opponents best scorer. While that does not preclude his featuring more on the offensive side of the court, it does compete with his time and attention.  So while he could do more of both, the reality is that his defense likely suffers as a result.

NBA Advanced Stats support RoCo alternative

In short, Covington cannot be the top defender and serve as the best outside shooting option for the team. And that means that the team must stagger some lineups. While Jerryd Bayless will take Redick’s starting role for now, the optimal lineups for the team would be wise to pair Covington with Joel Embiid. Per NBA Advanced stats, this pairing has the highest rated player impact estimate (PIE) in the NBA at 60.3.   The next best non-Embiid pairing is Covington with Ben Simmons, rated at a very respectable 55.2.  In fact, after Embiid, Covington is one of the most impactful players on the team.

And even moreso, on three man lineups, two of the NBA’s best three man lineups include Robert Covington.  Covington, Embiid and Saric are the second rated three-man, while Covington, Embiid, and Simmons comes in as the fourth rated NBA three-man lineup.

While this validates considering Robert Covington for a larger role on offense, how does the team go about making better use of his proficiency, while waiting for Redick to return to health? Ah, but the answer lies in NBA Advanced Stats.

Right sided Robert

The key to getting better production for Covington is shying away from what Redick does well, and shifting into what Covington does well. Per NBA Advanced Stats, Redick is nearly equally effective shooting over 50 percent from either corner three, but falls to 38.6 percent above the break on three-point shooting. Conversely, Covington struggles in the left corner at 25 percent, but hits at 54.5 percent from the right corner, and is somewhat better above the break at 39.2 percent accuracy.

So it falls to logic to shift the offense to the right corner during Covington’s lead.  And to a lesser degree, the team could pull him to some straight on shots. But for heaven’s sake, keep him out of those left corner threes!

Play to team’s strengths

If the team needs a left corner shot, surprisingly Jerryd Bayless has the touch. He scores on 40 percent of his attempt from the left corner.  That is valuable information which should be very much front and center as the 76ers plan the next two weeks without Redick.

Next: Joel Embiid ranked as second-best center in the NBA

The Philadelphia 76ers have options on offense. While the absence of J.J. Redick disrupts the team’s flow and rotations, it needn’t prohibit the team from competing and winning games going forward.   The key to doing so is getting consistantly better offensive production from small forward Robert Covington. And to do that, the team needs to send him to the right corner.