Conference play is heating up and so is the 2018 NBA Draft conversation.
This has bee an interesting year in college basketball. From the Trae Young takeover to Kentucky’s historic struggles, there have been plenty of unique storylines that nobody could have predicated entering the season.
We also had the FBI investigations, which cost Rick Pitino his job and will keep players like De’Anthony Melton, Austin Wiley and Brian Bowen sidelined all season. It doesn’t have the same vibes as your typical year in the NCAA.
The 2018 NBA Draft reflects that. This might be the most top-heavy class since 2003, featuring seven or eight different players with clear-cut star upside. The end of the first round is also wide open, with minimal depth and plenty of players whose stock will fluctuate drastically between now and June.
That’s what makes covering the draft so fun. Every projection culminates in an interesting basketball conversation that goes on all season. There isn’t anything else like it.
So, without holding you up any longer, let’s dive into our latest mock draft. As always, these are projections based on team needs and certain trends, not necessarily what I would do as general manager.
Despite a strong push from Deandre Ayton, Doncic continues to keep his grasp on the No. 1 spot. The 18-year-old is producing at a historic rate for the best team in the Adratic League, averaging 17.3 points and 4.5 assists in Euroleague competition while making strides across the board.
Orlando needs a playmaker in the worst of ways, so Doncic makes sense in terms of both fit and talent. He can take over ball handling duties from Elfrid Payton while playing off the ball and spacing the floor when needed. He’s quickly emerging as the best European prospect of this generation, if not ever.
There are some valid concerns with Doncic’s athleticism and whether or not his ceiling is as high as some of his collegiate counterparts, but that’s not much of a concern. He’s as gifted a player as you’ll find at his age, and continues to produce at an elite level against the best competition in the world outside of the NBA.
The Hawks can establish their frontcourt of the future by pairing Ayton and John Collins. The Arizona product continues to impress in Pac-12 play, averaging 20 points and 10.6 rebounds in conference play. He’s also starting to show signs of life on the defensive end.
At 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, Ayton is an unfair physical specimen. He’s more fluid than Joel Embiid with similar build when it comes to strength and length. He moves his feet on the perimeter defensively, while his shot extends out to the 3-point line on offense. He’s already a killer from mid-range and a smart passer out of the post, to boot.
Defense is where Ayton needs to improve the most, although I’m not too worried about that part of his game. His physical gifts should allow him to anchor an NBA defense long term, even if his effort and awareness wavers in college. Professional coaching — especially a staff like the Hawks — should help that.
Bagley has his flaws, but he continues to produce at an impressive rate nonetheless. He’s averaging 21.9 points and 11.5 rebounds on the season, showing an insane motor on the glass and plenty of athleticism for his size.
At this point, the rest of Bagley’s development will revolve around polish. He has shown a jumper out to the 3-point line, but the consistency isn’t there yet. His fluidity attacking the lane and operating in the post is impressive as well, he just needs to work on his touch around the basket.
Defense is the biggest question mark. Duke in general doesn’t play defense, and that might affect what Bagley’s able to do. He can move his feet well, but makes questionable decisions and doesn’t profile as a great rim protector at the next level. NBA coaches will have to unlock his potential on that side of the ball.
The Grizzlies can pass the torch from Marc Gasol to Mo Bamba, handing their much-needed rebuild over to one of the best defensive prospects in recent memory. Standing around the 7-foot mark with a 7-foot-9 wingspan, Bamba would immediately become the longest player in the NBA.
Bamba got off to a slow start this season, but has turned things around as of late. He’s still raw offensively and floats around the perimeter too often, but should be able to use his length to finish around the rim and thrive as a roll man at the next level.
Defensively, he’s already averaging 4.4 blocks per game. Not per-40 minutes, per game. His unique length gives him the kind of game-breaking upside that few prospects have, something that should keep him in the top five regardless of where his offensive game stands. The potential is through the proverbial roof.
Most of Porter’s stock depends on his medical returns. NBA teams already view him as an elite prospect after his high school days, so whether or not his back checks out will be the key determinent for a lot of teams.
Dallas is already committed to Dennis Smith Jr. as their point guard of the future, so that probably pushes Trae Young off the table. That leaves Porter, who might be the best pure bucket-getter at the forward spots since Kevin Durant. It’s not hard to picture him starting alongside Harrison Barnes with the Mavs.
At 6-foot-10, Porter’s physical tools project well defensively too. We were hoping to see more of his playmaking chops at Missouri this season, but that’s something teams will have to gauge in individual workouts over the summer.
Making Young work in Philadelphia would take some adjustments, but it could be really cool. He’d need to improve his shot selection and buy in to some off-ball movement alongside Ben Simmons (and Markelle Fultz, potentially), but the end result could be a dynamic offense.
Young, like Bamba, has the kind of game-breaking skill that sets his upside apart. His shooting is something not too many players can replicate, and it bends opposing defenses to their breaking points on a regular basis. Get him and Simmons to share the ball while working around Joel Embiid in the post, and Brett Brown could have a lot of unique opportunities.
Defense is obviously the biggest issue. Young’s lack of size, strength and elite athleticism hurt him on that end, while his lackluster effort only makes it worse. Unless something changes, he’ll be a negative on that side of the ball. The Sixers, however, have the personnel to make up for it.
I’m cooling off on Sexton, but he should get some serious lottery credit by virture of being the second-best point guard in a class that’s thin at the position. The Suns need to find a long-term pont guard to pair with Devin Booker, and Sexton feels like the obvious choice.
Despite Alabama’s inconsistency, Sexton has been one of the SEC’s most impressive players. He’s averaging 19.3 points and 3.4 assists per game, using his strong frame and explosiveness to get to the rim and finish. He’s also shooting 36.8 percent from deep, where there were some question marks entering the season.
Phoenix lacks an indentity outside of Booker, especially on defense. Sexton’s gritty attitude and constant hustle could be the infusion of energy their rebuild so desperately needs.
The Cavs are falling apart, so who knows what the roster will look like this offseason. Their biggest area of need, however, is defense, so grabbing an elite two-way prospect in Jackson makes sense. He’d be the best player available at this point.
Jackson continues to impress despite a limited role with the Spartans. His 3-point shot isn’t pretty, but he’s knocking it down at a 44.6 percent clip. He’s also averaging 3.3 blocks per game in just 23.2 minutes, which is a pretty insane ratio.
As a pick-and-pop threat with solid athleticism and mobility, Jackson could fit right in alongside LeBron James — of course, that’s assuming James stays with the Wine and Gold. He’s talented enough to take minutes from Jae Crowder and Tristan Thompson, both of whom have underwhelmed this season.
Knox is in a tough spot on a Kentucky team that continues to struggle. They lack spacing and don’t have much consistency on offense, so some of his struggles can be attributed to his role more than anything else. He’s still putting up 14.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game for the Wildcats.
Shooting just 29.8 percent from deep, Knox’s shooting is going to be a point of emphasis for scouts. He hasn’t been quite as proficient in isolation as many anticipated, so his ability to spot-up and knock down shots will be crucial for his immediate success.
He profiles as a solid defensive prospect, standing at 6-foot-9 with long arms and plenty of athleticism. The Bulls can add a talented forward with two-way upside alongside their current core of Lauri Markkanen, Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn.
Quite honestly, this might be a little high for Bridges. He hasn’t fixed any of the concerns left after last season, so his stock is likely trending down as a result. He’s scoring 17.7 points per game while shooting 36 percent from deep, numbers that are almost identical to what he produced in year one.
Bridges’ shot is important to his NBA success. He’s limited off the dribble at 6-foot-6, so his ability to space the floor and reliably knock down spot-up jumpers will largely determine his success as a small-ball four. He’s alreay an effective cutter who can also get to the rim in straight-line drives on occasion.
Defensively, Bridges’ versatility is where a lot of his appeal is rooted. Despite being somewhat undersized, his strength and athleticism should allow him to defend across the positional spectrum. He gambles and makes some poor decisions, but has the weakside rim protection and switchability needed to make a team like Utah pull the trigger.
With Josh Hart on the Lakers, Bridges has taken a big step forward with Villanova this season. The junior is averaging 17 points and shooting 44 percent from deep, building on his resume as one of the draft’s best 3-and-D prospects.
Bridges has always been a long, switchable defender who can knock down open shots. This year, however, he’s doing more off the dribble, something he struggled with in previous seasons. He’s far from an isolation specialist, but is capable of putting the ball on the floor and elevating for shots when needed.
It’s still his defense that keeps him in the lottery discussion though. The Hornets are looking to rebuild, so a wing who can space the floor and defend at a high level could be appealing. Bridges has one of the highest floors outside the top six.
Walker hasn’t found a consistent role with the ‘Canes, but he’s currently their best prospect. He’s 6-foot-4 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and plenty of hops, using those athletic tools to flash impressive defensive potential while thriving off the ball offensively.
He hasn’t done much in isolation and is only shooting 34.8 percent from deep, but his stroke projects well at the next level. He also does a nice job cutting off the ball and using his athleticism to finish around (and above) the rim.
The Knicks are shorthanded on the wing, so somebody of Walker’s ilk makes sense. He can immediately step into the wing rotation alongside Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee, where minutes should be readily available.
Carter checks all the boxes you’d want in a backup for Joel Embiid. He’s a skilled scorer in the post, boasts underrated passing instincts, and has flashed range out to the 3-point line. There are still some concerns surrounding his production at Duke, but nothing that will keep him out of the lottery discussion.
Part of Carter’s issue is the talent he’s playing with. Duke starts five five-star recruits, so Carter often gets lost in the fold. He has shown some shortcomings on defense, but the Blue Devils struggle to defend as a whole. With NBA coaching, his strong frame and length should make him a plus defender down the road.
If the Sixers do get two lottery picks, this is an excellent opportunity to fill some of their biggest rotational holes moving forward. Young and Carter certainly do so.
Williams has taken a step back this season, which is concerning for somebody who was already regarded as a lottery talent in 2017. His defensive prowess and rim-running ability should keep him on the right side of 20, though.
At 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Williams is an impressive athlete. He moves well out to the perimeter and protects the rim at an elite level for A&M, averaging 2.4 blocks per game. It’s his lack of offensive progress that will leave some scouts worried.
Williams showed signs of a jumper last season, but hasn’t really used it this year. There’s no evidence that he’s extending his range, while he’s only averaging 9.6 points per game — a slight decrease compared to last season. The Blazers can take the gamble and add some more frontcourt depth.
Brown fits the profile of what the Nuggets — and just about every NBA team — wants on the wing. He’s long, athletic and skilled, showing promise as a playmaker in the pick-and-roll while scoring 11.6 points and grabbing 6.8 boards for the Ducks.
He hasn’t been as polished at some had hoped entering the season, but Brown still deserves some love in the lottery discussion. His 30.8 percent clip from deep is concerning, but his stroke looks better than the percentages suggest. Somebody with his tools, on both sides of the ball, holds some serious upside.
The Nuggets add another athletic wing who can cut, shoot and move the ball, the perfect fit for an offense that’s based around Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. Brown could be the kind of sleeper pick that makes other teams regret passing on him.
Musa has quickly emerged as the best international prospect outside of Luka Doncic. He lacks length and elite athleticism, but makes up for that with good size on the wing and plenty of shot-making ability.
In 20.3 minutes per game with Cedevita this season, Musa is averaging 11 points on 39.5 percent shooting from deep. As somebody whose shooting drew some concerns entering the season, that uptick in consistency is promising.
The Clippers’ roster is in a weird place right now, and nobody really knows what it will look like when next season rolls around. Musa may or may not be a draft-and-stash guy, but he’s somebody who can provide an instant scoring punch and some competitive fire as soon as he reaches the States.
Duval can’t shoot, so that will scare off some teams. He’s still an impressive athlete who checks almost every other box, though, so a team like Detroit should be plenty interested. The Pistons are in desperate need of some long-term solutions at point guard with Reggie Jackson‘s decline and Ish Smith‘s limitations currently hampering their success.
Standing at 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan, Duval is quietly an elite defensive prospect. His motor runs hot and cold with the Blue Devils, but I think that’s a product of the team around him more than anything else. When he’s engaged, his length and effort can cause a lot of problems for oppsing point guards.
He’s also a quick-twitch athlete, getting to the rim and finishing at a respectable clip despite his ugly jumper. Even as a 26.9 percent 3-point shooter on a loaded team, Duval is averaging 12.1 points and 6.2 assists per game. His court vision, especially when operating at full speed in transition, could be enough to give him early success at the next level.
Brown is having an odd and disappointing season, but I still like his chances as a prospect. At 6-foot-5 with long arms and plenty of athleticism, he should be able to defend multiple positions while finding a nice niche as a comboguard at the next level.
New Orleans could be a decent spot for Brown. Most of his scoring comes from spot-up jumpers and cuts, so working off of DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis would have it’s benefits. He’s also capable of handling the ball and iniating the offense, so working alongside another capable playmaker in Jrue Holiday (or Rajon Rondo) would give the Pels options.
Averaging just 11.5 points and shooting 29.4 percent from deep, Brown has struggled a lot this season. Still, based on his flashes this season and what we saw last year, Brown should get some top-20 love.
Robinson dropped out of Western Kentucky over the summer, meaning he’ll attempt to make the jump to NBA basketball without a year of college under his belt. He’s somebody who could have benefited from a year of development in the collegiate ranks, but his physical tools should keep him on first round radars.
At 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Robinson’s combination of length and athleticism is valuable on the defensive end. He’ll obviously get shuffled behind names like Mo Bamba and Robert Williams in most conversations, but he is one of the more underrated defensive bigs in the draft.
Offensively, Robinson does most of his damage at the rim. He has shown some mid-range flashes in the past, but he’d have to show that in pre-draft workouts before we dub it a reliable part of his game. The Bucks can use this as a nice upside play in the frontcourt.
Gilgeous-Alexander has exploded in recent weeks, quickly becoming Kentucky’s most dynamic two-way threat. He’s 6-foot-5 with long arms, giving him a solid defensive profile. He’s also adding more to his game offensively, finishing with craft around the rim and knocking down shots consistently from deep.
The Pacers already have some solid guard play with Victor Oladipo and Darren Collison, but the latter isn’t a long-term solution. SGA gives the Pacers a high-level defender who can play both on and off the ball, giving them options whenever Oladipo is in the game.
In December and January, SGA is averaging 13.5 points and 4.4 assists per game while shooting 47.1 percent from beyond the arc. If he’s able to sustain and build upon that production, he should be a steady riser all summer.
USC will keep Melton out all season after his name was connected to an FBI report. While that hurts the Trojans’ chances this season, Melton still profiles as a first round talent after a strong freshman campaign. His stats — 8.3 points, 3.5 assits — weren’t all that impressive, but he showed all the signs of a quality two-way guard.
Standing around 6-foot-6 with long arms, Melton’s defensive prowess gives him a solid floor at the next level. Minnesota is still looking for long-term depth alongside Tyus Jones on the perimeter, so a capable comboguard who can defend multiple positions is a smart play.
Melton only shot 28.4 percent from deep last season, so how he shoots in pre-draft workouts will go a long way in determining his stock. He’s a smart playmaker who can run the pick-and-roll and get to the rim with long strides, but he needs to clean up his handles in some situations.
Gafford wasn’t on most draft radars entering the season, so his rise will often be compared to Justin Patton and Zach Collins. He’s averaging 12.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and two blocks per game in just 22.3 minutes of action, providing steady production on both ends for Arkansas.
Defense is going to be Gafford’s calling card, as his length and athleticism makes him a plus rim protector with plenty of two-way upside. The Wizards are thin up front, with Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi both on the wrong side of 30. Getting some young frontcourt talent, like Gafford, is probably high on their list of priorities.
Mostly a rim-runner on offense, Gafford still has some room left to grow on that end. Like Gilgeous-Alexander, Gafford is a name we could see shooting up draft boards all summer.
A 7-footer with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, McCoy has all the physical tools you need at the five spot. He’s still figuring things out defensively, but he should improve with time.
Phoenix is still trying to sift through their options in the frontcourt with Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and Alex Len, but McCoy could give them some solid depth. He’s a skilled scorer in the post, averaging 17.6 points in his first season with UNLV. He also grinds on the boards, averaging 9.7 per game.
As an NBA-ready body with a polished interior game, McCoy should keep his stock hovering around the late first round. His upside largely hinges on developing a jumper and improving defensively, but he has the base necessities of somebody the Suns can grab at 23.
Hutchison continues to fill it up in his final year with Boise State, establishing himself as the best senior in the 2018 class. As somebody who has been steadily climbing draft boards all season, the proverbial cherry on top was his 44-point outing against San Diego State.
The Cavaliers, assuming LeBron returns, will still be looking to compete next season. Adding a four-year player who can defend multiple positions, shoot the three-ball at a 38.2 percent clip, and score in bunches off the bench makes sense. Hutch is currently scoring 19.9 points per game in 30.5 minutes.
At 6-foot-7, he’s also grabbing 8.1 rebounds per game. Add that to his passing acumen, and you have a well-rounded prospect who could thrive on a team like Cleveland, whose offense is predicated on ball movement and spacing.
Simons is spending a post-graduate season at IMG Academy, meaning he can skip college altogether and make the jump to NBA basketball. That means he’s earlier in his development than most prospects, but a team like the Spurs can afford to take that gamble.
Still underveloped physically, defense is going to be Simons’ primary concern early on. He has the length and athleticism to be a quality two-way player long term, but his lack of strength is going to hurt him in his first few seasons.
Offensively, Simons has some serious shot-making chops. He has all the makings of a dangerous isolation scorer, boasting smooth handles, a fluid pull-up, and quick-twitch athleticism. He’s an effortless scorer whose perimeter shot projects well, so expect the Spurs to unlock something scary after a few years with this kid.
Diallo is one heck of an athlete, which is where most of his stock is based at this point. At 6-foot-6, he’s an impressive transition threat whose tools should translate into solid defense. The rest of his game is still a work in progress.
As it currently stands, Diallo isn’t a dynamic creator nor a reliable shooter. He’s hitting on 34.8 percent of his 3-point shots, which hints at some improvement, but his consistency comes and goes.
The Hawks can afford to take Diallo with one of their three first round picks, inserting him into one of the best player development programs in the NBA.
Bates-Diop was a fringe prospect for three years, but has exploded in his senior campaign. Averaging 19.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, the lanky forward is currently the primary option on an Ohio State team that’s aiming for a tournament birth in March.
Really, this is the perfect Nets pick. At 6-foot-7, KBD is freakishly long and provides ample versatiliy on the defensive end. He’s also hitting on 36.6 percent of his threes, which is his highest mark since coming off the bench for 10 minutes per game his freshman year. That, combined with crafty scoring around the interior, should give Bates-Diop first round appeal.
The Nets get another long body and an elite defensive profile late in the first round. He’s somebody who’s capable of contributing valuable minutes right away, although the Nets’ rotation may not allow that.
The Hawks add to their backcourt depth again, grabbing a skilled comboguard who can take some — if not all — of Malcolm Delaney‘s minutes off the bench. Standing around 6-foot-6, Milton can defend multiple positions while contributing across the board offensively.
Milton is currently averaging 18.4 points and 4.6 assists while shooting 43.6 percent from deep. All of those totals are career highs, although his perimeter shooting has floated above 42 percent in all three seasons at SMU.
Dennis Schroder is the only long-term piece the Hawks have in the backcourt right now, and even his future with the organization is questionable. Adding a couple of backcourt pieces in Milton and Diallo, along with Ayton at the top, would make for a good haul.
While Michael has been sidedlined all season, Jontay continues to put together a solid freshman campaign. Standing at 6-foot-11 with a bulky frame, his combination of offensive skill and defensive upside could push him into the first round.
Porter isn’t the greatest athlete at his size, so defense could be an issue once he’s stretched outside the paint. Nonetheless, he’s averaging 2.1 blocks per game in 23.5 minutes, making a clear impact at the collegiate level.
Offensiely, he’s shooting 32.8 percent from deep while showing some skill around the post. He’s already making nice pases out of the post and showing off a high basketball I.Q. The Celtics add a young body to their frontcourt behind Al Horford and Aron Baynes.
Foster has burst onto the draft scene in his third season with SMU, averaging 13.9 points and 5.9 rebounds while shooting 32.3 percent from deep. The consistency isn’t quite there yet with his shot, but the mechanics are solid and his stroke projects well at the next level.
The Warriors adding versatile, two-way depth on the wing makes a lot of sense. Foster has long arms and an NBA-ready frame at 6-foot-5, allowing him to guard multiple positions on the perimeter. He’s a gritty defender in isolation and is averaging 1.2 blocks per game, which is an impressive total when you consider his size.
Next: 2018 NBA Draft Big Board 4.0
Those athletic tools translate to the offensive end as well. He thrives as a cutter and is becoming more comfortable in spot-up situations. His shooting will be a point of emphasis for scouts, but getting a plus defender with promising athletic tools should be enough for the Golden State machine.