The Sixer Sense
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Can Philadelphia 76ers make 4th seed in NBA Playoffs?

By Bret Stuter

OAKLAND, CA - NOVEMBER 11: The 2017 NBA Championship ring is presented to James Michael McAdoo
OAKLAND, CA - NOVEMBER 11: The 2017 NBA Championship ring is presented to James Michael McAdoo /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 18: Shaun Livingston
PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 18: Shaun Livingston /

Better seeding means better chances

Is it too early to think about winning an NBA Championship? Not at all. The goal is to do so every year, but realistically few teams get to striking distance. Since the Philadelphia 76ers hired Sam Hinkie in the spring of 2013, the team has not been close to striking distance. But Hinkie arrived to the asset-starving Sixers team with a sound plan to get there. Most sports analysts called it tanking. Knowledgeable Philadelphia 76ers recognized it as an austerity plan to build future value, now known as “Trust The Process”.

Statiscally, the top-seeded NBA teams get to the Finals 72 percent of the time.  Second-seeded teams get there 14.7 percent of the time.  Third-seeded teams are a 10.3 percent chance to make the NBA Finals. Finally, the fourth-seeded team has a 1.5 percent chance of playing for an NBA Championship.  Fifth through eighth-seeded NBA teams have a collective 1.5 percent chance of playing for all the marbles. So the higher the seeding, the better the team’s historic chances.  That holds true as teams rise to the top-four seeding in the NBA.

NBA Trade Deadline

That historic success rate is why teams love to reload at the NBA trade deadline. So far this year, the biggest NBA Rumors involve Eastern Conference third-seed Cleveland Cavaliers attempting to better their back court by dealing for Sacramento Kings PG George Hill. In the grand scheme of things, the Cavaliers do not want to fall below the third-seed. Now, amidst a 3-7 streak, they are in peril of doing just that.

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers are in the midst of an 8-2 winning streak, and are just two games out of the fourth seed currently held by the Miami Heat. The “magic mark” for the Eastern Conference fourth-seed has tracked just under a .600 winning percentage. That means, these Philadelphia 76ers must end their season at 49-33.  Right  now, this team is projecting as a 50 win team, good enough for a good position to make an impact in the playoffs.