Can Philadelphia 76ers make 4th seed in NBA Playoffs?

Despite inconsistency, these Philadelphia 76ers are beating good NBA teams. Now, a sudden burst of winning in January 2018 projects the team as a potential fourth-seed come post-season

You win some, and you lose some. As a fan of the Philadelphia 76ers, there is no need to discuss losing some. You’ve lived it. While other team waded into NBA free agency to win 25 games, the 76ers started undrafted and second round players while the team awaited the arrival of Dario Saric and the return to health of Joel Embiid.

In fact, by the end of December 2017, these Sixers were under .500 and were fighting through injuries, inconsistent play, and a general malaise which made even the most optimistic fans among us question their ability to make a run at post-season.

New Years renewed hope

And then, January 2018 happened.

Already by January 27, 2018, the team is already 7-2 in the month. As a matter of fact, those wins include a two-game sweep of the San Antonio Spurs, a win against the Detroit Pistons, the Toronto Raptors, the Boston Celtics, and the Milwaukee Bucks.  At 7-2 against a schedule of predominantly NBA playoff teams, the fans have reason for optimism.

They are closing in on the four seed of the Eastern Conference.

So what? Well, it makes a difference.

Playoff seeding

The Philadelphia 76ers have a long prosperous history in the NBA playoffs. As a matter of fact, the Philadelphia 76ers are third in NBA Playoff appearances at 47. Only the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers have more. But the team has undergone a drought of five seasons.

They last played in the 2011-2012 NBA Playoffs as an eight-seed.  In that year, the team defeated the Chicago Bulls 4-2, only to be stopped by the Boston Celtics 4-3. That was the team which boasted Lou Williams, Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Andre Iguodala, and Elton Brand. That team held no elite stars, but had an incredibly deep roster.

So how does NBA seeding affect the bracket?

NBA Playoff Bracketology

Unlike the NFL, the NBA uses a fixed bracket to determine playoff games. That is, there is no reseeding as teams advance. Each conference ranks the eight top teams. From that group, the brackets are determined:  1st vs 8th, 2nd vs. 7th, 3rd vs. 6th, and 4th vs. 5th, all at best of seven. For the next round, the 4/5 winner goes on to face the 1/8 winner.  Likewise, the 3/6 winner goes on to face the 2/7 winner, again the best of seven. The winners of that matchup face one another. In each playoff round, the game format has been set at 2-2-1-1-1 with the first two home games to the better ranked team.

And that is the key to the fourth seed.  Get to the fourth seed, and Philadelphia plays at least one round with home court advantage. For a team coming out of 10 and 28 win seasons, that is a huge morale boost to the fans and the organization. But there is more to it than just one home court advantage. There is the entire matter of getting to an NBA Championship. And there is a lot of history as to which seed gets to the NBA Finals.

Better seeding means better chances

Is it too early to think about winning an NBA Championship? Not at all. The goal is to do so every year, but realistically few teams get to striking distance. Since the Philadelphia 76ers hired Sam Hinkie in the spring of 2013, the team has not been close to striking distance. But Hinkie arrived to the asset-starving Sixers team with a sound plan to get there. Most sports analysts called it tanking. Knowledgeable Philadelphia 76ers recognized it as an austerity plan to build future value, now known as “Trust The Process”.

Statiscally, the top-seeded NBA teams get to the Finals 72 percent of the time.  Second-seeded teams get there 14.7 percent of the time.  Third-seeded teams are a 10.3 percent chance to make the NBA Finals. Finally, the fourth-seeded team has a 1.5 percent chance of playing for an NBA Championship.  Fifth through eighth-seeded NBA teams have a collective 1.5 percent chance of playing for all the marbles. So the higher the seeding, the better the team’s historic chances.  That holds true as teams rise to the top-four seeding in the NBA.

NBA Trade Deadline

That historic success rate is why teams love to reload at the NBA trade deadline. So far this year, the biggest NBA Rumors involve Eastern Conference third-seed Cleveland Cavaliers attempting to better their back court by dealing for Sacramento Kings PG George Hill. In the grand scheme of things, the Cavaliers do not want to fall below the third-seed. Now, amidst a 3-7 streak, they are in peril of doing just that.

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers are in the midst of an 8-2 winning streak, and are just two games out of the fourth seed currently held by the Miami Heat. The “magic mark” for the Eastern Conference fourth-seed has tracked just under a .600 winning percentage. That means, these Philadelphia 76ers must end their season at 49-33.  Right  now, this team is projecting as a 50 win team, good enough for a good position to make an impact in the playoffs.

The team nobody wants to face

The fear to many NBA teams coaches is facing that one hot NBA team in the playoffs – the team that nobody wants to face. Right now, that team could likely be the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Sixers do not currently dominate any team offensively, but they can score. The same Sixers team does not currently dominate any team on the defensive side of the court, but they can play good defense.

No NBA team knows just how good this Philadelphia 76ers team can be at the end of this season.  But here are some facts we DO know.

Philly fact – Embiid sees, then demonstrates

Fact I – Joel Embiid is unique. He has played 28  NCAA games and 67 NBA games, and he is arguably the best center in the NBA. He merely needs to see the moves of NBA stars on video, and he can display those moves on the basketball court the next day. How do you plan against a player with those abilities in post season?

What he sees to what he does. And the better the competition, the better Embiid plays.

Simmons is an elite NBA rookie

Fact II – Ben Simmons ability to record triple-double places him in elite NBA company. Ben Simmons recorded his second triple-double in just nine games.

Before the All-Star break, he is up to five triple doubles. That ties the rookie record for triple doubles by a rookie set by Alvan Adams, who set the rookie record for most triple doubles by a rookie for the Phoenix Suns in the 1975-1976 season.

Point guard, point forward, point him to post-season

Ben Simmons becomes the second “unique” factor with the Philadelphia 76ers. No other team plays a 6-foot-10 player at the point. So preparing to face the 76ers means teams must train specific plays, execute unique schemes, to neutralize this team. And that is easier said than done when facing Simmons:

So there are two facts. But this team continues to improve. Suddenly Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is averaging 8.9 points and 56.3 percent from three-point range. Likewise T.J. McConnell is at 9.0 points and 55.6 percent shooting from the perimeter. This team has three games remaining in January 2018.  Win two of the three, and the team enters February 2018 at 26-22.

Long season, but rapidly improving

It’s a tough place for Philadelphia 76ers fans. Yes, the team has played this season in winning and losing spurts. But when this team starts stringing together wins against the Celtics, Raptors, Spurs, Bucks, and Pistons, they prove that they deserve to play in post-season. And they get better with each game.

This is a team with a scheme designed by head coach Brett Brown and former team president Sam Hinkie. The goal was to excel at pace, space, and pass.

So far, this team is doing just that.

Rhythm > fast pace

But suddenly, the fast pace is becoming secondary to a better cadence for the team. With a slower cadence for slower teams, the 76ers are realizing just how good they are defensively.  They held the Boston Celtics to just 80 points on January 18. Then, just eight days later, they held the San Antonio Spurs to just 78 points.

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As a result, things are beginning to get very interesting:

Who realistically wants to face a team this hot in the NBA Playoffs? If the trend continues, the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing some of the most consistant and stellar basketball in the league at season’s end.  And a hot team at the right time can make all the difference in the world. Just ask Philadelphia Eagles fans.