Philadelphia 76ers 2018 NBA Draft picture post NBA Trade deadline

After the NBA Trade deadline clears, the landscape for the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft has changed for the Philadelphia 76ers

The Apocalype is not just the end of all things, but the reference to an event involving destruction or damage on an awesome or catastrophic scale.  Damage may not be the right word, but the concept pretty much describe the vigorous NBA Trade Deadline events which have muddied the water about the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft.  And while it could morph into a 50 slide article if I tried to capture each trade, let’s focus on the NBA Draft Picks held by the Philadelphia 76ers as we enter that 2018 NBA Draft.

This trade deadline did not deliver the occasional “mega-deal” which involved a surprising number of teams and a surprising number of stars.  There was no 2018 version of the Philadelphia 76ers four-team Andrew Bynum trade. But it did deliver a nearly complete retooling-on-the-fly for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

All 76ers draft picks impacted

But they were not the only team to do so. In fact, with the recent news of the Philadelphia 76ers planning to sign Marco Belinelli on or about Monday, February 12, the entire Philadelphia 76ers 2018 draft picks have been impacted by moves made by their original teams.  So it falls to the question, how did all that flurry of activity affect the 2018 NBA Draft?

As of February 10, 2018, the Philadelphia 76ers hold the third strongest draft hand.  The team is sitting at 11, 15, 37, 39, 45 and 59.  The teams who originally possessed those picks are, in order, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Philadelphia 76ers, the Brooklyn Nets, the New York Knicks, the Philadelphia 76ers and the Houston Rockets.  Of those teams, the Lakers, Nets, Knicks, and Rockets all made moves at or shortly after the trade deadline.

Apocalypse aftermath

Now, we must size up the impact of those moves. Any improvement to the non-Philadelphia team today is a negative. Conversely, any move to take on salary, buyout veterans, or take on NBA draft picks can be viewed as a positive.

But we must not lose sight to the fact of the Philadelphia 76ers remained on the sidelines at the trade deadline. Despite the recent victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, the team was so incredibly desperate for bench help.

A good Beli laugh

Now bench help is coming. Despite the lack of trade deadline activity, these Philadelphia 76ers will be adding a solid perimeter shooter/ bench scorer off the bench. Perhaps the goal of team president Bryan Colangelo is to maximize the team’s 2018 draft picks?  Well, that could be fine, except other teams are making that much more difficult to depend on.

In the end, the move helps the Philadelphia 76ers in multiple ways. But curiously, one way is simply to retain four second round draft picks.  These are picks that, from this chronological perspective, are simply too numerous to be used entirely.  We know that a similar situation in the 2017 NBA Draft resulted in the outright sale of two picks.  So the preservation of picks being shipped for cash sale seems… confusing?  Hopefully, it will sort out over the next few weeks.

Lakers first round pick

The Los Angeles Lakers had not been the slouches we had once known. Already at 23 wins, the team is better than any previous Lakers team since their 45-37 season of 2012-2013. And they are not doing it with a superstar, but with a balance on the roster which had eluded them in recent years. But a fragile balance.  You see, the Lakers roster is nearly as young as that of the Philadelphia 76ers. They have Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball as two of the five starters on that roster. But the team relies heavily upon veterans to add both defense and offensive oomph for the team.

Now let’s summarize that trade deadline deal which has everyone buzzing.  In this deal, the Lakers traded Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance to the Cavaliers in return for Isaiah Thomas, Channing Frye, and the Cavaliers 2018 1st round pick.

What does this deal accomplish?

Bullseye for both teams

The Lakers are not a playoff bound team, so they are happy to take on expiring contracts, take a 1st round pick in a draft where they held only a 2nd round pick, and lose salary.  The Cavaliers sought a means to toughen up the team, and get a legitimate point guard in the process. But what about that Lakers balance?

Well, the Lakers starting five are intact.  And they ended a four game winning streak, with an easier segment of their schedule fresh ahead. So from a timing perspective, this was a great time to make a deal. From the Cavaliers perspective, they are fighting through an 8-10 streak, and need help on a defense which surrendered 148 points to the Oklahoma City Thunder. So the timing for the Cavs is equally optimal

Lets examine the deal more closely.

Lakers salary, Cavs defense

For the Lakers, it offloads the significant salary cap hit of Jordan Clarkson, who averages over $12 million for the next three years. In return, they now have both Thomas and Frye, whose contracts expire at the end of this season. Clarkson was a key player for the Lakers, getting just 24 minutes but coming off the bench to put up over 14 points per game.

Conversely, Thomas needs 27 minutes for similar production, and his defense is simply absent at times. The Lakers have no intentions of making a playoff run to end the 2017-2018 season.  But with two expiring contracts and a late first round pick, the team now has significant flexibility in the 2018 off-season in both free agency and with holding two picks in the draft.

Cavs Stronger, which means Lakers are likely far weaker

For the Cavaliers, it was intended to up their defense to a level which can compete in the playoffs. The Cavs had been shredded over and over by inferior teams, and not even 110 percent of LeBron James could help. With this move, they hope that will no longer be a major issue. While this raises the competitiveness of the Cavaliers, what does it do for the Lakers?

Admittedly, one point does not a trend make. But the post-trade-deadline Lakers lost to the not-known-for-their-offense Dallas Mavericks by a score of 130-123. That 130 points is the worst showing of the Lakers defense this season, by a significant margin. Similarly, the Cavaliers win over the Atlanta Hawks by the score of 123-107 seems awfully encouraging to their defense going forward. So how is that draft pick?

Now at 11,  I can see the pick landing on or about 7 in the upcoming draft. The Lakers will struggle to win 30+ games with this current roster.  ADVANTAGE: 76ers

Philadelphia draft pick.

The Philadelphia 76ers are playing the fence to the max this season. Unintentionally, but still it’s difficult to feel confident with a Philadelphia 76ers team hell-bent on flirting with a .500 record with two-thirds of the season behind us. 53 games in, 29 games to go, the Philadelphia 76ers stand at 28-25, only due in part to a 3-0 run since the Philadelphia Eagles have won the Super Bowl.

And with no Furkan Korkmaz, no Markelle Fultz, and injury and playing limits to both J.J. Redick and Joel Embiid. the team may have simply ended at their best possible situation for this season.  But the 76ers are oh-so-close to a better seed right now. Presuming this team cannot catch the Toronto Raptors nor the Boston Celtics, they are are mere 3.5 games behind third place Cleveland. And then Washington Wizards (2.5 games behind, Milwaukee Bucks (2.0 games behind), Indiana Pacers (1.5 games behind) and Miami Heat (.5 games behind).

Mamma mia! Belinelli bench help

The Philadelphia 76ers have improved ever so slightly. Reports are out now that the team will sign shooting guard Marco Belinelli.  And his arrival should help the team in depth, bench scoring, and a veteran who can help develop the 76ers younger players.  And for all intents and purposes, the current Sixers bench does not have a player like Belinelli.  This is the role hoped for Jerryd Bayless, Markelle Fultz, Furkan Korkmaz, and even Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to fil.  Someone to give quality minutes behind J.J. Redick. Now, Belinelli gets his chance.

But in the developing lineups and roles, this has an additional benefit of giving J.J. Redick someone to absorb some quality minutes behind him on the team. Redick has played in just 42 of the team’s scheduled 53 games, but he takes on an average of 32.0 minutes for each game. Now with Belinelli, the Philadelphia 76ers can lower that run rate to somewhere at or below 30.0 minutes per game. That should help the team keep Redick on the court and healthy enough for post-season play.

* Highlights
* ESPN
* Basketball Reference
* NBA Stats

Now at 16, the improvements to the team could devalue the 76ers draft pick to 21 by draft day.  Disadvantage 76ers (but a playoff bound team)

Nets second round Pick

The Brooklyn Nets have been treading water for years. Ever since the Boston Celtics pillaged practically all of the Nets picks in the Kevin Garnett trade, the Celtics have been on the rise while the Nets have plummeted to the NBA basement with no draft staircase to climb up.  But they continue to chip away at that iron collar by making subtle but important trades for the organization.

Check out this Sam-Hinkie-worthy dealing at the trade deadline. First trading center Tyler Zeller to clear playing minutes for Jarrett Allen and his backup, Jahlil Okafor:

So the trade looks like this:

In the end, the Bucks gave up a 2020 second round pick for backup center Tyler Zeller. But the Nets were not finished just yet.

More where that came from

That pick is the 2020 second rounder from Milwaukee. Rashad Vaughn is a shooting guard with some upside, but not as a Nets’ player. And then the subsequent trade of newly acquired Vaughn for Dante Cunningham which looks like this:

This trade allowed the Nets to sustain playing time for previously acquired Nik Stauskas and fill a void in the front court by the departure of Trevor Booker.

And in the end, the Nets have taken on Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, Dante Cunningham, a 2020 second round pick and a 2019 second round pick and trade away Tyler Zeller and Trevor Booker. That’s the type of wheeling and dealing we can respect in Philadelphia. It’s those subtle moves which, when aggregated, get an NBA team back into the hunt for post season.

While I respect this move for the long haul, I don’t see much “here and now” value for the Nets. As a result, their current second round pick at 37 could rise a bit. Perhaps ending at 34 by the 2018 NBA Draft. Advantage 76ers

Knicks second round pick

The New York Knicks lost the play of star power forward Kristaps Porzingis just before the trade deadline. And in that instant, the team transformed from a bubble team buying at the trade deadline to a developing team selling at the trade deadline. And sell they did.  They traded away young reserve center Willy Hernangomez to the Charlotte Hornets for Johnny O’Bryant and two second round draft picks.

All about the picks, ’bout the picks, no treble

The Knicks subsequently waived Johnny O’Bryant. So in the end, the Knicks wanted second round picks. So what did that trade look like?

In the aftermath, the Knicks have lost a valuable young contributor on this team, a star at power forward, and have walked away from the NBA Trade deadline with a pair of future second round picks. The Knicks second round pick is currently at 40, but this team will be reeling from now until season’s end. Look for that pick to land on or about 35 by the end of the season. Advantage 76ers

Rockets second round pick

The Houston Rockets are playoff bound, and are arguably the second best team in the NBA, closely trailing the Golden State Warriors. Closely trailing but not quite over the hump of overtaking them. But man oh man, the Houston Rockets are writing the book on clever roster upgrading.

Subtle moves which may prove substantial

The team signed SG Gerald Green, who has added 13.9 points per game in 18 outings. Latest signing will be that of Sacramento Kings’ recent buyout  SG Joe Johnson plus the signing of Memphis buyout PF Brandon Wright.  At the moment, Green is clearly exceeding all projections. Now with Johnson and Wright, the Rockets will have a bench deep in player who can absorb minutes.

This is the front office which mentored former Philadelphia 76ers executive Sam Hinkie. While the Sixers are not yet at the Rockets level, I respect and admire the Rockets’ organization for the constant vigilance and effort to improve at each transaction. Right now, that Houston Rockets’ pick stands at 59.  I don’t see these moves changing that at all, so it will stay 59.  Neutral Philadelphia 76ers

76ers second round pick

The same forces which acted on the Philadelphia 76ers first round pick are just as active to the team’s second round pick. The team  is still awaiting news on Markelle Fultz. The team is still fighting to win without much bench help. And the team is hopeful that the soon-to-be signing of Marco Belinelli will help the team’s offense, bench scoring, and lengthen the durability of shooting guard J.J. Redick.

And with a tightly bunched group of teams fighting for playoff spots in the NBA Eastern Conference, that may be just enough to ensure the 76ers some post-season action. And that is, after all, the ultimate goal of this season.

Projected 2018 NBA Draft picks

But the team has a significant stake in the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft as well. In fact, The team is sitting at 11, 15, 37, 39, 45 and 59 as of February 11, 2018.  But after analyzing the NBA Trade Deadline transactions, we project the Philadelphia 76ers to select at the following positions:

7, 21, 34, 35, 51, and 59

Now you are armed with the Philadelphia 76ers likely draft position when you check out the latest 2018 NBA DRAFT Big Board.

But what about changes?  We have you covered.

B

NBA Lottery Tables

The 2018 NBA Draft is the last year for the existing rules. Next season, the NBA’s “anti-tanking” provisions kick in, theoretically discouraging teams from losing in the last third of the season.

And so, the team’s NBA Lottery probability lands in this table:

NBA DRAFT PROBABILITY TABLE

So after all the transactions settle into place, the Philadelphia 76ers held draft picks of teams who ended up net sellers at the trade deadline. That works out well for the Philadelphia 76ers. As the playoff teams make a push to win, those teams resigned to “better luck next year” project less successful in the season’s final months.

Next: Joel Embiid’s injury scare highlights the importance of caution

That makes the Philadelphia 76ers draft position stronger as the season winds down. That makes a strong Philadelphia 76ers team in 2018-2019. However the Markelle Fultz saga plays out this year, the 76ers will have his play boosting the roster. Add a couple first rounders to the mix, and the team, once more, should be even more improved.  The Philadelphia 76ers are just getting started folks.