2018 has not been Robert Covington‘s year so far. How serious is his current slump for the Philadelphia 76ers?
Robert Covington has become a polarizing figure among Philadelphia 76ers fans of late. Most of the diehards who stuck by Sam Hinkie through the dark times will defend Covington with their lives, while others see Covington as an overpaid, inconsistent shooter.
Since Covington signed a four-year extension in November, his shooting percentages have dipped significantly. This lack of production has led a large portion of the fan base to believe that RoCo’s early season hot streak was just a flash in the pan.
| Games | FG% | 3P% | TS% | PTS | |
| October | 7 | 45.3% | 46.7% | 60.8% | 13.6 |
| November | 14 | 44.2% | 39.6% | 60.3% | 15.3 |
| December | 13 | 38.4% | 35.0% | 53.4% | 13.3 |
| January | 12 | 38.0% | 34.3% | 55.4% | 10.3 |
| February | 10 | 35.9% | 29.7% | 47.6% | 10.3 |
Statistics via Basketball-Reference.com
January and February were certainly not ideal for someone billed as a 3-point specialist. However, many of the league’s top marksmen experience the same type of declines. 3-point shooting is not something that is constant; shooters can fall into slumps and hot streaks throughout the course of a season. No player can shoot 3-7 from deep every single night.
Danny Green, a career 39.8 percent 3-point shooter, dropped to 33.2 percent for the 2015-16 season. Since then, Green’s percentages have leveled out.
| Career | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | |
| Danny Green | 39.8% | 41.8% | 33.2% | 37.9% | 38.2% |
| Kyle Korver | 43.1% | 45.1% | 40.9% | 48.5% | 42.8% |
| Kyrie Irving | 38.6% | 41.5% | 32.1% | 40.1% | 40.2% |
Statistics via Basketball-Reference.com
Now in his fourth year in the league, Robert Covington has proven that he is an above average shooter from distance. An article from Nylon Calculus from 2014 discovered that 3-point percentage often stabilizes after 750 attempts in the NBA. Covington has now attempted 1,741 shots from outside the arc for a career 3-point percentage of 35.7 percent.
Even with the recent struggles, Covington is still shooting 36.7 percent from 3-point range for the season. A lot of the backlash directed at Covington is a result of the contract he signed in November. After this season, it is essentially a four-year, $44.8 million extension.
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In comparison to contracts around the league, Covington’s deal clearly qualifies as a role player’s contract, which is why I don’t understand the recent panic. He is a complementary piece whose main role offensively is to spot up off the ball while Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric create opportunities.
Covington’s real purpose on this team comes on the defensive end. Now in his fourth year in the league, Covington has generated a large enough sample to silence his haters. Robert Covington (yes, Robert Covington of the 76ers) ranks third among small forwards in ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus.
He is trailing only Otto Porter Jr. and LeBron James, and he ranks ahead of Paul George and Kevin Durant. Last season, he ranked fifth among small forwards in the same statistic. His defense is not a fluke.
Covington’s long frame and quick hands make for a stifling perimeter defender. RoCo is among the top 15 in steals for the last two seasons, and he even led the entire league in deflections in 2016-17. I could ramble about Covington’s defense, but to put it simply: he brings enough value on that side of the ball to make up for the nights when he is struggling from deep.
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I can’t deny that Covington’s recent play is frustrating, but I would need to see a much more significant decline in performance before I start to reconsider whether he deserves the extension he just received.