However the 2017-2018 season ends, the Philadelphia 76ers are built so well that the team should compete for a 2018-2019 NBA Championship
Each year Philadelphia 76ers fans find themselves caught in that annual struggle: optimism or fatalistically pragmatic. And for years the fatalists/pragmatists have won the battle – so to speak. The Philadelphia 76ers, investing heavily in youth with tremendous talent, had struggled to compete with the seasoned and pedigreed teams.
It was more than simply a youth movement, as the Philadelphia 76ers have been, unquestionably, one of the most injury plagued teams since head coach Brett Brown has run the team. By design? By accident? It’s tough to parse out a cause and effect. What is clear is that the team did not win many games. But that is all changing in the 2017-2018 season.
Peaking at the right time
Right now the team is 34-27 and faces just 21 more games. Playing at a 4-2 clip since the All Star Break, the team has finally won back-to-back games, a bane on the season so far. And by all rights the team has one of the strongest starting five lineups in the NBA today. This team boasts center Joel Embiid, power forward Dario Saric, small forward Robert Covington, shooting guard J.J. Redick, and point guard Ben Simmons.
Is it the fact that nobody took this team seriously until now? Or is it the unique skills and dimensions of the Sixers which make them such a very dangerous opponent this season? Now with a bench bolstered with the additions of double digit scoring Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, the team is as strong as ever. In any case, head coach Brett Brown has this team playing some of the best NBA defense and offense in the league. Win projections for this team have landed anywhere from the mid 40’s to 50. That’s good enough for an NBA playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Quite an improvement from a 28 win team a season ago, and 10 wins just two years ago, eh? Still, what of next season?
2018-2019 season
Still, this team loses Redick, Amir Johnson, Ilyasova, and Belinelli in the off-season. So this team is pretty much a one-and-done as far as playoff appearances, right? After all, the chemistry of this team is pretty tough to reproduce with just any old free agents. And there is the reality that anyone who comes to this team via the draft will take several years to fully integrate. And that is on a normal team.
For this Philadelphia 76ers club, even seeing a top draft pick in their first season is a major victory. And those draft picks keep coming. Three players remain overseas and the team is currently holding six draft picks in the 2018 NBA Draft. Not even in the depths of the rebuild could the team onboard nine players simultaneously. Still, that number is where the team stands right now.
Reassembling a winner
Nine players who could arrive to the NBA next season. Four veterans have expiring contracts. But the puzzle remains: How can this team replace the 40 points per game vacated by the expiring contracts of their current free agents? Beyond that, the attrition of Redick and Belinelli immediately creates a nightmare hole in the lineup, as the team has struggled to get production from the shooting guard role.
Factor in the thinning of the front court with Ilyasova’s departure and those fatalist/pragmatists will find plenty of reasons to express dismay. After all, getting to the NBA Playoffs in one thing. Advancing all the way to the NBA Championship is something entirely different. Still, anything less than getting close next season will feel unfulfilling for the city and her fans. But things will go well next year. In fact, here are five reasons to expect this Philadelphia 76ers team to compete for an NBA Championship next season.
Markelle Fultz returns
There is so much focus on Markelle Fultz this season. But by the time next season rolls in , his shooting and his scoring will be back on track. However you see the cause and effect and the miscommunication, it all fades away from the moment this young man steps foot onto the basketball court. The same thing happened to calm the fears over Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons. At each occasion, an incredibly talented young man hit the pitstop before racing onto the NBA court. And in the previous two events, the player’s performance quickly monopolized the narrative.
That same cycle will happen once more. The talent of Markelle Fultz is vast and unique. He can facilitate, create shots, plop threes or drive to the basket. His shot arsenal is a complete quiver, and he has great instincts on getting to the basket for the score. Speed flashes in bursts, but he can hit the pedal or the brakes to throw defenders off.
Tough acts to follow
But let’s face it. After Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, both of whom had -by rights- NBA ROY seasons- expectations for Markelle Fultz are already incredibly high. While he has plenty of talent to eventually exceed expectations, the reality is that the NBA has little patience for the young man right now. Since the Philadelphia 76ers traded for the top pick with the Boston Celtics, many point to Celtics Jayson Tatum with his 13.2 points and 43.9 percent shooting from the perimeter, and expect Fultz to exceed those numbers each night.
But Tatum is not a volume shooter from three-point range. In fact, he averages less than three attempts from long-distance per game. In contrast, power forward Al Horford attempts more threes on a per game basis. The reality is that Tatum benefited from the day one injury to Gordon Hayward and simply filled those minutes well. Tatum was promoted by necessity. If you recall, 76ers point guard T.J. McConnell outperformed second pick D’Angelo Russell in their rookie seasons. When a player is forced into action, the team bends their playbook to accommodate him.
Free Agency coup
There is so much talk of LeBron James to the Philadelphia 76ers next season that it’s easy to just ride that story to next season. But the truth is that the team needs wings, and will look to fill the spot vacated by Redick and Belinelli first. Thankfully, there is a host of good wing players projected to hit the free agent market in 2018. Of course both J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli are two, and they have the insider track of knowing the team and fitting the lineup well.
But there are others. The team may discuss signing with Memphis shooting guard Tyreke Evans, or a name which has surfaced before in the likes of Clippers shooting guard Avery Bradley. There is also Denver Nuggets guard Will Barton, or Chicago Bulls Zach Levine. Ultimately, the investment made by the team at the shooting guard position in free agency dictates how far along they believe Markelle Fultz has come.
Chemistry chronology considerations
The 2018 free agency market will not become huge paydays for each and every player as in the past. Some project the market to be somewhat tight in terms of discretionary spending. Teams signed free agents to long high dollar contracts, and are now stuck with those obligations this off-season. In the end, there is a price to pay for those big long deals. So far, the Philadelphia 76ers have signed only one-year deals for this season. Players like Redick, Belinelli, and Ilyasova have incredible chemistry with this team today. So they would be logical choices to retain.
But there is a chronology factor as well. The Philadelphia 76ers are a fairly young team. And to that, Bryan Colangelo spelled out the need for veterans to bridge playing time until the younger players earned starting roles. Right now, the team struggled to find a capable young player at the shooting guard spot. But next season, the team has Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Furkan Korkmaz, and Markelle Fultz competing for playing minutes, plus whomever the team signs in free agency. Colangelo has created another logjam on the roster with three players at the same development stages of their careers. The obvious solution is for the team to trade away either TLC or Korkmaz and sign a veteran to hold the starting role until Fultz is up to the challenge.
Another season of that young lineup
The more they play, the better they get. Joel Embiid has played 81 NBA games. Ben Simmons is at 60. Dario Saric is at two years, while Robert Covington is at four seasons. Ultimately, none of these starting four are at their “peak” yet. Simply translated, they will perform even better next season. Better is relative, isn’t it? So let’s crack that nut.
Joel Embiid has grown from 20.2 points and 7.8 rebounds to 23.8 points and 11.3 rebounds. Next season those numbers grow to 25.0 points and 13 rebounds. Similarly, Ben Simmons runs at 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 7.4 assists. Those numbers will also grow to 20 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists next season. Finally, the third member of the triad, Markelle Fultz, will contribute solid numbers as well. Look for him to show up as 15 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists.
Still learning NBA and teammates
How can that be? This is a team who had spent practically all of 2017 learning about each other, their coaches, and NBA opponents. This is a team run by an NBA rookie. And as such, the hitches in their game like fouling, turnovers, and poor shooting from the free throw line fix over time. Right now, the team remains firmly entrenched in turnovers and in turnover differential.
But there is more to this team as well. This team has had virtually no contribution from either Markelle Fultz or Furkan Korkmaz this season. And the team allowed the vacated roster slot of Nik Stauskas to remain unfilled until the recent signing of Marco Belinelli. That meant this team carried more playing minutes per active player than any of the other NBA teams. Next season, the team roster will hopefully remain filled and healthy all season long.
Playoff experience
The fact remains that you don’t know what you don’t know. So until the Philadelphia 76ers get into post season play, the organization simply does not know what works or doesn’t work. But from the moment the Sixers earn that experience, the front office will learn immediately where the team works, and where the team needs reinforcements.
This is a young team. Neither Joel Embiid nor Ben Simmons have experienced the NBA playoffs. It’s no longer a wave of good teams and bad teams, each night a new set of faces, skills and cities. In the NBA playoffs, it’s two teams competing until one team wins four games. That’s a new dynamic for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philly is a team no NBA team wants to face
But it’s not a bad dynamic. This is a team with an incredible number of talented players. And with their height, and the team focus through the front court, there are bound to be mismatches which favor the 76ers. Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric are three skyscrapers on the court. Toss in the artillery of J.J. Redick and the 3-and-D Robert Covington, and there is good reason why the starting lineup is so sound.
But the team has some unspoken advantages. This team does not quit in a game nor in a series. And there is that matter of Joel Embiid seeing videos and then replicating the moves on the basketball court. That talent showed up early in Embiid’s career as he revenged a nationally televised loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last season with a hard fought win. And that is the very nature of this team. They can be beaten yes. But do not believe for a minute that one win means more wins. This team is resilient. Thanks to head coach Brett Brown, there is a passion in this team for the city and her fans. And that passion is hard to overcome.
The cavalry arrives
We mentioned players who are overseas, but left it at that. Now we can discuss that in more detail. The team has three international players worth discussing: center Anžejs Pasečņiks, power forward Jonah Bolden, and small forward Mathias Lessort. For now, we project Pasecniks coming over to fill Amir Johnson’s role, Bolden filling Ilyasova’s role, and Lessort working to fill a wing position.
Fans immediately fell in love with Bolden’s play in the summer league. He played hard, worked the boards well, and found ways to score. So far in the Euroleague, Bolden is putting up respectable production. He is getting 21.7 minutes, and scoring 6.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.0 blocks. His perimeter shot needs work at just 32.1 percent, but he is hitting 48.3 percent from the floor. And he is so incredibly versatile. He plays hard on both ends of the court. He will be a huge plus for the team next year.
Center of attention
The Philadelphia 76ers traded back to the 25th pick of the 2017 NBA Draft to grab Andzejs Pasecniks. That selection revealed team president Bryan Colangelo’s strong desire to acquire another big to play behind Embiid. With Okafor traded, the team relies this season on a conglomeration of Amir Johnson, Richaun Holmes, and now recently acquired Ersan Ilyasova. But the team needs a more permanent solution. Enter Pasecniks.
Pasecniks is a reported 7-foot-1 big who is very versatile as well. We wrote about the reasons why the team traded up for him at the start of the season. In short, he was a lightly scouted player who brings huge potential to the NBA. Ultimately, he is a player with a style similar to Kristaps Porzingis.
Next: How important is Joel Embiid’s 3-point shot?
So there are plenty of reasons to believe the Philadelphia 76ers will compete for the NBA Championship next season, and for years to come. Perhaps that is why many now believe LeBron James to the Philadelphia 76ers is likely. Whether that happens or not, this team is built to win. And we haven’t even talked about 2018 NBA Draft prospects. Hmmmm…