Have the Philadelphia 76ers overstretched themselves by bunching four young wings nearly simultaneously? Now, the team faces a logjam at shooting guard and must remedy the situation quickly and likely painfully
The Philadelphia 76ers are no longer a team with limitless opportunities for young men with a burning desire to play the game of basketball. But that is not to say that the team philosophy has changed, nor has the team strategy. As a matter of fact, It’s simply the matter of timing. The Philadelphia 76ers now find themselves competing with NBA veteran teams. At this tier, all teams are on the hunt for post-season success. As a result, the Sixers must now, in part, fight fire with fire. What does that mean?
Simply stated, tough decisions. The timeline for the Philadelphia 76ers is too short. There simply isn’t enough time on this team necessary to develop young talent at a reasonable rate. If necessity is the mother of invention, then success is the death of patience. We reviewed the current logjam at the wing position in a recent article. While detailing the demise and potential way to remedy the Philadelphia 76ers bench, a more subtle and dangerous problem surfaced.
Uh-oh, Colangelo
With the absence of Furkan Korkmaz and Markelle Fultz, and the underperformance of Justin Anderson and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, the 76ers have a logjam at wing. Four players desperately in need of coaching and playing time are in a virtual dead heat in terms of ability to generate quality minutes. In 2017-2018, only two players have been healthy enough for playing time.
But what of 2018-2019? With two new crops of young players intent on landing with the Philadelphia 76ers, the likelihood for the team to reboot developing strategies for four returning players is highly unlikely. It makes sense for the team to focus on Fultz much the way it focused on Simmons. That means TLC, Korkmaz, and / or Anderson are on the bubble for the team already.
Make way for a new crop
To work through this exercise, we must project the 2018-2019 roster configuration as three thirds. First of all, one lineup is starters. Secondly, another lineup is veterans. And thirdly another lineup will be reserved for developing new players.
That is NOT to say that a veteran is the first player off the bench at all positions. In the case of a highly talented young player, like a Markelle Fultz, the younger player gets the spot starts and quality bench minutes – and may even compete for the starting role down the road. That pretty much takes us to the visual depth chart where we examine the roster.
Roster review
First of all, let’s begin with the 2017-2018 roster from current players and see how this works:
Position Starter Veteran Developing Player
Center Joel Embiid Amir Johnson(*) Richaun Holmes
Power Forward Dario Saric Ersan Ilyasova(*)
Small Forward Robert Covington Justin Anderson Furkan Korkmaz
Shooting Guard J.J. Redick (*) Marco Belinelli (*) /
Shooting Guard () Jerryd Bayless Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
Point Guard Ben Simmons T.J. McConnell Markelle Fultz
This season, the team has for expiring contracts indicated with a (*) symbol. Of that group, we project the team to look to retain Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick, and Marco Belinelli to sustain veteran presence at key positions on the roster for next season. You can still see weakness at the four role, and excess at shooting guard even now.
Back to the future
And so, with a skew on the roster towards the back court, we already know the roster is off-balance. But now we are ready to project that 2018-2019 roster from current players and incoming talent and see how this works:
Position Starter Veteran Developing Player
Center Joel Embiid Ersan Ilyasova(#) Anzecs Pasecniks
Power Forward Dario Saric Richaun Holmes Jonah Bolden
Small Forward Robert Covington Justin Anderson Furkan Korkmaz
Small Forward () () Mathias Lessort
Shooting Guard J.J. Redick (#) Marco Belinelli (#) /
Shooting Guard () Jerryd Bayless Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
Point Guard Ben Simmons T.J. McConnell Markelle Fultz
If the team wants to compete in post season, the veteran column must be addressed by a player capable of quality spot starts plus significant production off the bench. For now, we’ve simply retained the veterans needed to make the depth chart work. If the team elects to “move on”, that vacancy is simply one more slot added to the shopping list during the 2018 Free Agency signing.
Double Trouble
Now look more closely at the 2018-2019 depth chart. At first, what do you see? After that, what don’t you see? What you do see is Justin Anderson and Furkan Korkmaz lined up as small forwards. Of the pair, neither have earned the right for spot starts or quality bench minutes. And yet, that is where they are. No veteran behind Covington? Wait, what? But then we get to the shooting guard role and we see the opposite happening. Jerryd Bayless has not delivered. And this is Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot’s second season, and he is regressing.
What you do not see is room for any new 2018 rookies. NADA. If the team wishes to carve out roster spots, they must either be content with young unproven talent off the bench (a disaster), or opt to keep Euoleague players stashed overseas. Neither of which fixes the underlying issue.
Second verse, not the same as the first
Let’s try this again, this time with roster moves which allow the team to bring in two first round rookies from the six pick 2018 NBA Draft. To do so, we are looking at the 15 man roster for the 2018-2019 season. and as such, this roster has some options.
For starters, any name you do not see on the roster can replace a name which appears, but where? If you like TLC, do you bump Korkmaz? Or perhaps you trade out from one of the 2018 first round draft picks? If you don’t retain a current veteran, do you instead opt to keep a young player? But we learned first hand the disasterous results when younger players are not ready to handle significant roles on successful teams.
Reexamine that roster
The results are a clear indication that the roster requires some painful pruning in the off-season. The inability of the team to develop either Markelle Fultz or Furkan Korkmaz has likely resulted in two more players not making the roster next season. At the moment, those two bubble players are Justin Anderson and TLC.
Position Starter Veteran Developing Player
Center Joel Embiid Ersan Ilyasova(#) Anzecs Pasecniks
Power Forward Dario Saric Richaun Holmes Jonah Bolden
Small Forward Robert Covington Furkan Korkmaz 2018 Draft Pick – rd 1
Shooting Guard J.J. Redick (#) Marco Belinelli (#) 2018 Draft Pick – rd 1
Point Guard Ben Simmons T.J. McConnell Markelle Fultz
However you mix and match the names on this roster for 2018-2019, there is compelling evidence that the team is saturated at the wing position for now. Similar to the previous front office, that logjam at the wing is choking the team’s production and development timelines.
Versatile staggered diverse roster
With so much versatility embedded in the team, there is no fear that a roster position will be understaffed. In fact, the positions stated above are not very accurate where the Philadelphia 76ers are concerned. But for discussion purposes, the serve their purpose of creating a visible roster to aid discussion.
So why must the team stagger the roster? Well, the NBA salary cap exists and is very real. So on the team depth chart, the objective is to pay the starters the most. Makes sense, right? The veteran tier represents players who can absorb quality playing time productively, and are off their rookie contract. These players are the toughest to find, as they all want top dollar. But a wiley front office can get value from veterans on a successful team.
Developing players = cheap farming
The third tier of developing players is the farming system on the roster. That is the position where the team cycles through promising young players into starters or veterans to fill vacancies in either tier. And it’s necessary to keep the tier stocked with players for two reasons. On one hand, the constant supply of new young players ensures the teams is making efforts to ensure quality players for the future. On the other hand, the NBA incentives teams to keep young players on the roster. It’s that inexpensive third of the roster which allows NBA teams to survive the constant downward pressure upon their payroll.
Next: Philadelphia 76ers, may we approach the bench?
The rules of the NBA are firm and unforgiving. Teams which rely too much on veterans find themselves cash strapped and unable to retain promising talent. Teams relying too much on young players simply cannot compete in the NBA. Now, the Philadelphia 76ers must recognize where they are in roster building and take the right steps to ensure a steady, diverse, and sustainable improvement going forward. Fail to do so, and the rewards are watch the NBA Championships while other teams compete.