Smile, Philadelphia 76ers have 3 championship pieces on roster

Basketball Analytics of NBA Championship teams suggest the Philadelphia 76ers need three NBA elite players. Smile, Sixers fans. They may already be on the roster

The Philadelphia 76ers did not tank for the top pick in any NBA Draft. Asserting that is simply inaccurate. But the Philadelphia 76ers did fast-cycle through players in hopes of finding elite pieces for an eventual run at an NBA Championship. And in doing so, landed enough NBA Draft currency to follow up the 2016 first pick with a trade to get the 2017 first pick.

It was all part of a grand design to construct an NBA Champion. Not just by building the right roster. But to build a lasting NBA Champion, the Philadelphia re-engineered their entire organization.  And they constructed a state-of-the-art Training Facility in Camden, New Jersey to train these NBA future greats. The team created a “machine within the machine” to serve the needs of each player on the team.

Basketball Analytics

When the time was right, the team changed the focus of player analysis from optics to basketball analytics.  And as the team mired as one of the worst teams in the NBA, the organization used that time to build an infrastructure worthy of a championship NBA team.

And the team had the blueprint for doing that as well.  An NBA Championshp team requires three special players as the core, with a strong supporting cast assembled around them. The mistake most teams make is building the team sequentially. That is, they get one great player, try to find the second, then try to find a third. Once a core is intact, they scramble to assemble complimentary pieces around them. The NBA salary cap makes that all but next to impossible.

Why so many picks?

To assemble the core and complimentary players, the team must begin to congeal during players’ rookie contracts. Only then can an NBA team truly afford to pay all players under that ceiling. But that means increasing the number of draft picks beyond two. In fact, the number of picks must land on or near six per year.  No team “hits” on all draft picks.

More from The Sixer Sense

• 3 Sixers players who could help Team USA Basketball
• 76ers 2k24 ratings: 3 most underrated players on Philadelphia roster
• 76ers head coach Nick Nurse bares lofty plans for Paul Reed this season
• Grade the Trade: 76ers swap Tobias Harris for superstar PG in mock deal
• Sixers Podcast: Danny Green returns + James Harden bombshell

And it’s rare indeed for a team to find the caliber of player described as “three NBA elite players”. Some players are very good. Some players are good fits. But to find an elite talent whose skillset compliments those of the other core players is a very rare find indeed.

Better odds

So the only way to improve the odds is simply to improve the frequency.  But improving the frequency does nothing for the team if the list is sequential.  Doing so risks finding right support pieces and discarding them, never to find another.  So assembling a championship team becomes akin to a scavenger hunt.  A list of players with specific skillsets is agreed upon.

Then, the team sets about searching for all players simultaneously.  Even undrafted prospects like Robert Covington or T.J. McConnell become valuable pieces to that eventual NBA Championship team as supporting cast members. But the real story is finding three elites. And once you’ve found them, to have all the pieces ready to take them to the top.

Joel Embiid

The first piece fell to the Philadelphia 76ers by accident. Literally. If not for the stress fracture in his back and his foot injury, Joel Embiid would be playing elsewhere.  The 2014 NBA Draft for the first three picks were: Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, and the Philadelphia 76ers. Embiid was the consensus “highest ceiling” potential in that draft. But he projected as rehabbing for one year. That amount of injury rehabilitation warded off all but the Philadelphia 76ers.  And that rehab time doubled to two years for the young center.

And so, despite the trials and tribulations to get there, and the shallow basketball experience gathered along the way, he exploded onto the NBA scene a year ago. Not just a “wow” moment, but 31 games where fans and sports afficianados alike took notice.

Center stage

Now for the main course.  Joel Embiid allows the Philadelphia 76ers to do some things no other team in the NBA does. The first element is to run the offense through the center.  In the modern NBA, the best teams simply have the best back courts. Guards who can drive to the basket, but who can launch an arsenal of three-point shots at any given point in the NBA game.  Embiid allows the 76ers to do all that. Even with the perimeter shooting. A 7-foot-2 perimeter shooter will get a lot of clean looks at the basket.

The second major attribute which comes with Embiid’s game is the excellence on both ends of the basketball court. The team get the best of offense and defense when he is on the basketball court. And he’s just 89 games into his career.

He’s the crux of the rebuild. And that’s why the Philadelphia 76ers are so good.

Ben Simmons

Ben Simmons was not “planned” to happen to the Philadelphia 76ers. He just happened to appear in the NBA Draft when the Philadelphia 76ers needed a unique compliment to Joel Embiid, and held the top pick.  But don’t mistake the events as just dumb luck. No other team looking at Ben Simmons saw anything other than a power forward. It was the audacity of head coach Brett Brown who saw what fans saw – a 6-foot-10 point guard who could revolutionize the NBA. And that is just what he is doing.

Elite year one

Ben Simmons is already, as a rookie, performing at an NBA elite level. The fact is that he is making a once-in-a-blue-moon event like Triple-Doubles as common to the Philadelphia 76ers as pocket change. And if the knock on Joel Embiid’s rookie season was just 31 games, then where is the applause for Simmons pushing nearly 35 minutes per game for 68 games?  That equates to just one game on the bench.

Triple doubles are nowhere near as easy as Ben Simmons makes them appear to be. And it’s that level of play this early in his career, at the toughest position in the NBA, which makes him the second piece of the triad.

Mystery of Markelle Fultz

The debate on Markelle Fultz wages on. Is he good or isn’t he? Was he worth moving up to one to get him in the 2017 NBA Draft, or will he be a bust? The young man became a top priority of the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2017 NBA Draft because he is unique. He delivers the right skillsets needed for the Sixers roster, and he has elite upside.  But the fact is, we haven’t seen what he can really do on the basketball court.

But we did see what got him that reputation. We saw his play with the Washington Huskies, and how he created plays and scores on the fly. His talents were unmistakable then, just as Joel Embiid’s days with Kansas stood out on video, or Ben Simmons’ time at LSU.  You can’t fake great play, even in the NCAA ranks. It either is, or is not. Fultz is.

Question marks

The two question marks for Markelle Fultz entering the NBA were: durability, and free throw shooting. While his absence from the court has only strengthened the durability concerns, he’s made use of the time to amplify his free throw accuracy. So let’s check off that box.

Now for the durability, and other questions. Let’s start off by acknowledging those questions are commonplace for rookies. Not much is known, so everything is a question mark.  Fultz is following in the footsteps of Embiid and Simmons. Even up to the point of delivering excellent play in the NBA.

Recent history

However the cause and effect, the pattern for top talent on the Philadelphia 76ers has been some level of red-shirting in their first season. It began with Nerlens Noel, and continues all the way through to Markelle Fultz. At least one significant player for the Philadelphia 76ers sits on the bench for the first season.

Air Alamo

But the results of that anticipation have been phenomenal.  Joel Embiid sat two years, Ben Simmons sat one. In both cases, they arrived to the NBA and were immediately turning heads. Talent, it seems, does not grow stale on the Philadelphia 76ers bench.

Fultz adapting, but at home

Fultz is adapting to a brand new environment at an age of 19 years old.  Much like young men joining the military, it’s a strange and alien environment. It’s all business by day, and on-your-own by night. But that is simply the off-court culture. On the court, it’s all the same.

Style takes time to adapt. Pain takes time to overcome. Mechanics require plenty of repetition to relearn. And the Philadelphia 76ers, who had waited patiently for each of the other two stars, know all this. But fans grown impatient. We see the excellence of Simmons and Embiid and we know the NBA is vulnerable. Fultz, when he is fully integrated into the lineup, delivers that extra scoring ability to take these 76ers over the top. Fans instinctively know it, and they are eager.

Don’t judge too hastily

The fact is, the Philadelphia 76ers had to take a chance. Fultz, by all accounts, was the premier talent on the board in the 2017 NBA Draft. But even more importantly, his point guard and shooting guard versatility made him the perfect player for the 76ers.  With the draft approaching, the Philadelphia 76ers made a trade to move up.  After the fact, the Celtics claimed that they wanted small forward Jayson Tatum all along. But what else would they say? “We wanted Fultz, but we traded out anyways”?

And while many turn to the trade made with the Boston Celtics and the performance of Jayson Tatum, keep in mind that the same argument happened a year ago when the 76ers watched Brandon Ingram play for the Los Angeles Lakers.  At the time, many continued to see Simmons as a power forward.

Erratic rookies

That same crowd ignores Tatum’s four point games and sees a young man whose average three-point shot is above 40 percent. That’s incredible for a Celtic forward. But he has  the Hayward injury to thank for his opportunity. Fultz will deliver his talents on his debut. He won’t simulate Embiid, Simmons nor Tatum. And when he brings those crazy moves and shooting accuracy, some may even see a touch of Allen Iverson in the young man.

But that same inconsistancy will strike Markelle Fultz as well.  When it does, the same folks who hated the trade will point to those downturns as reason why the entire exchange is permanently broken.  But it’s not.  Struggles in September will turn to anticipation in April. And anticipation will yield to playoff production.

Three stars need time to shine

The talent of the 76ers players is so high, that they get lumped into the NBA veterans rather easily. And as such, the erratic nature of their play is oftentimes called into question.  While that is fine in terms of setting the expectation for play at a higher level, the fix is not simply a night of coaching.

Each player, in their own right, can take over a game.  But none of the three have enough NBA experience to have a true feel for the game. None have the understanding of when its okay to pass off the ball, and when to drive to the basket 100 percent of the time. None fully understand the need to be more aggressive, and when to be.  Wisdom is simply getting things wrong and learning from the mistakes. Right now, all three are gaining NBA wisdom.

Don’t discount them now

But even with all that being said, this team is one win away from a 40 win season, a plateau so many pundits said they could never reach this season. And this team did so, without the play of Markelle Fultz. Embiid with 23.6 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. Simmons with his Triple Doubles. And now with a roster with seven players scoring in double figures.

Next: How much of an issue is Dario Saric’s defense?

When we set the expectations for the team just 27 games into the season, we acknowledged that the team would have to grow familiar with one another. In that analysis, we projected the team to get to 31-24. Instead, the team was 30-25. Close. In that projection, the final record stood at 50 wins 32 losses. Right now the team is 39 wins and 30 losses. While the likelihood of ending up at 50 wins is unlikely, it’s not impossible if the team plays well in the final 13 games. And  with the play of Embiid and Simmons peaking right now, anything going forward is possible.
But it gets better each season from here on out.