The Sixer Sense
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Is Joel Embiid taking too many 3s?

By Michael Bronson

PHILADELPHIA,PA - MARCH 24 : Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Wells Fargo Center on March 24, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA,PA - MARCH 24 : Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Wells Fargo Center on March 24, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Is Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid taking too many three-point shots?

Joel Embiid is the Phladelphia 76ers’ best player. He is that rare center who is capable of scoring back-to-the-basket in a style expected from players that are around seven-feet tall. He can score through open-and-contested mid-range jumpers. And he can even score from behind the three-point line.

His ability to make three-pointers allows the Sixers to make the NBA’s most important shot from a position where it’s not expected.  That allows the team to compensate for Ben Simmons’ lack of three-point shooting ability.  Still, is it possible that Embiid is taking too many three-point shots? In other words, should he focus on higher percentage shots and drawing fouls?

Stretch-five

There is no argument that Joel Embiid is revolutionizing the role of an NBA center.

"“Embiid started his rookie season shooting 67 percent from the 3-point line, but that percentage has been steadily decreasing since that incredible start. Through 12 games, Embiid’s percentage dropped to 51 percent and is at 41 percent after playing 20 games.41 percent from the 3-point line. That was future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki‘s shooting percentage from the 3-point line during his rookie season. Throughout his career, Nowitzki has made 38 percent of his 3-point shots per game.” – Michael Bronson from Evaluating the Importance of Joel Embiid’s 3-Point Shot"

The above quote is from this article I wrote during the 2016-17 season.  In that article,  there is plenty of discussion about Joel Embiid’s great three-point shooting for a center. While seeing him take three-pointers excited me last season, there have been many occasions this season where I wished he didn’t.

Play the odds

Embiid currently takes 17 shots per game with 3.5 of them coming from behind the three-point line. The first reason for wanting him to take less shots from behind the perimeter is that Embiid does not shoot them at a high enough percentage. Embiid is making 48.4 percent of his shots overall, but only 31.1 percent of his threes.

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The second reason Embiid should take more shots closer to the basket is that drawing fouls can make a huge difference. Embiid draws a foul 43.8 percent of the time he takes a shot and is a 76.9 percent free throw shooter. With the players guarding Embiid likely being the opposing team’s starting center, getting them in early foul trouble could cripple their chances at getting rebounds and playing good defense.

Don’t stop, just curtail

Despite issues involved with Embiid taking too many three-pointers, his ability to make them is still an important part of the team, because it forces the other team to guard Embiid from half-court instead of just standing near the basket and preparing double teams and ways to keep the ball out of Embiid’s hands.

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That advantage is enough to justify Embiid taking two three-pointers per game even if he misses both them. But if he misses both them and the Sixers are either behind or in a close game, Embiid should focus on scoring easier points.