As the NBA offseason comes to a close, the Kawhi Leonard saga is the final domino to fall.
While the Philadelphia 76ers continue to weigh their options with Kawhi Leonard, it is important to understand just how talented Leonard has become. It seems some fans have forgotten just how much he can impact the game at the highest levels of basketball. Leonard is the type of player who, when healthly, would instantly change the Sixers’ timeline to contend for a championship.
Of course, there is a steep risk that Kawhi could leave Philadelphia next summer, but he is the best fit available for the Sixers. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, and Klay Thompson could all potentially enter free agency next summer.
While Kevin Durant may be the best player available, there’s no guarantee he will leave Golden State, and he turns 30 years old this season. The NBA rumor mill suggests Irving and Butler will most likely hit the free agent market next summer, but neither are a natural fit with Philly’s current stars. On top of the fit, Jimmy Butler had his meniscus removed last season, and he may be on the decline in the near future.
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Outside of Kevin Durant, Kawhi is by far the most impactful player of the bunch. Players of Kawhi’s caliber almost never become available in the trade market. While many see Kawhi’s injury history and ensuing free agency as risks, these factors can also be viewed as a momentous opportunity to add a top five player in the NBA.
Trading for Kawhi would not be a move for the 2018-19 season. This move would allow Kawhi to spend a full season becoming acquainted with the Sixers’ culture, and I trust Brett Brown and Monty Williams to leave a positive impression on Leonard.
If the Sixers were to trade for Leonard this summer, the maximum contract they could offer him right away would be four years for $108 million, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN. Next summer, however, the Sixers would be able to offer him $190 million over five years.
If another team, such as the Lakers, wanted to sign Leonard in the 2019 offseason, they could only offer a max contract of $141 million over four years.
The contract situation would give the Sixers a tremendous advantage against their competition. That competition will be much broader next summer as some of the awful contracts from the 2016 offseason are wiped off the books, leaving many teams with new cap space.
Paul George’s decision to re-sign with the Oklahoma City Thunder is a good reminder that fans (myself included) do not totally understand what goes into a player’s decision. Last summer, it was a foregone conclusion George would sign with the Lakers in 2018 unless the Thunder made a long playoff run. The Thunder lost in six games to Utah in the first round, and Paul George still chose to stay in OKC.
If a team like Toronto actually makes the move for Kawhi, the NBA community would assume he would choose to hit the open market next summer. But if Toronto can offer him the most years and the most money, it’s hard to say for certain that Kawhi wouldn’t be interested in staying. Toronto is currently rumored to be the favorite for landing Kawhi according to Zach Lowe and Brian Windhorst.
In this case, Philly would also be competing against every other NBA team with cap space since they could only offer four years, $141 million. I just don’t see how the Sixers could beat out every other major suitor for Kawhi next summer if they don’t have a contract advantage.
Kawhi Leonard is a dream fit in Philadelphia
A trio of Kawhi Leonard, Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid truly has limitless potential. Kawhi’s fit with this team is just about as perfect as it can get. He is one of the best offensive creators in the league with his combination of ball-handling, shooting, and finishing. Players like LeBron James and Jimmy Butler don’t fit nearly as well as Leonard because of their dependence on handling the ball. Jimmy Butler especially loves to pound the ball and he will occasionally kill the flow of the offense.
Kawhi is the opposite of a “ball-stopper”. He slowly evolved from a “three-and-D” player to an elite ball-handler and scorer in San Antonio. His ability to create offense on his own would be massively important for this team.
He would instantly be the only player on the Sixers who could handle the ball AND shoot at a high level. Currently, the Sixers don’t have a player who can effectively run a pick and roll with Joel Embiid. Kawhi’s ability to run the pick-and-roll could unlock another level of Joel Embiid’s potential, as Embiid is too often used as a post scorer left on his own.
A package of Dario Saric, Robert Covington, and the 2021 Miami first round pick should be the Sixers’ base offer for right now. If the organization feels confident that Kawhi is healthy, and that they can re-sign him next summer, I would feel comfortable adding more assets to that package.
The only way I would include Markelle Fultz in a trade is if Kawhi gave the Sixers a serious commitment to staying long term, and the Sixers pull one or two of the aforementioned assets off the table.
However, Zach Lowe of ESPN mentioned on his podcast that he doesn’t think the Spurs have much interest in Fultz anyway. Zhaire Smith would be the next valuable asset to include in a Leonard trade. If San Antonio demanded Smith, I would reluctantly include him to get the deal done.
This package may seem like an overpay, but Kawhi is a different type of talent than a Jimmy Butler or a Paul George. Kawhi was a back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year and a legitimate MVP candidate in the 2016-17 season.
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If Philly can acquire him without giving up one of their major pieces, I think this is definitely a risk worth taking because of Kawhi’s game-changing impact and seamless fit. Kawhi also just turned 27 years old, and it’s very rare that a young team can find another superstar that fits into their timeline.
Adding Kawhi would most likely make Philadelphia the favorites to win the East. Although they still won’t stand much of a chance against Golden State, the Warriors dynasty will not be around forever. Kevin Durant could realistically leave Golden State next summer to prove himself in Los Angeles or New York.
Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are due for contract extensions, and Andre Iguodala is entering his late-thirties. Locking in Kawhi long-term would mean the Sixers would be ready to pounce when the Warriors finally disband, or at the very least when they lose one of their stars.
For Philadelphia, this is the rare opportunity to add a special type of superstar that completely changes the franchise’s window for contention.
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The Sixers may never get another chance to add a mega-star like Kawhi Leonard. This is a proven Finals MVP who impacts the game in ways only a few other stars can. Letting this kind of player slip through your fingers would be a mistake that could potentially cost this team a championship. It’s time to get the assets in a row and get the deal done before another team beats them to it.