Philadelphia 76ers are entering win-now mode with Tobias Harris trade

The Philadelphia 76ers are entering win-now mode, which means incurring the risks that come with it.

Elton Brand shook the Eastern Conference foundation by trading for Jimmy Butler in November. It was his first big move as general manager, stepping directly into the spotlight and positioning the Philadelphia 76ers for a deep playoff push.

Now the first-year GM has taken another leap of faith, dealing away several long-term assets for yet another star player: Tobias Harris. The 26-year-old was an All-Star snub in the West, averaging 20.9 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. His 49.6/43.4/87.7 shooting splits are elite.

The starters now feature three 20+ points per game scorers, while Jimmy Butler (19.5) and J.J. Redick (18.3) fall just outside that threshold. Golden State aside, there isn’t a more talented starting five in the NBA.

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It’s clear Brand, Brett Brown and management are going all-in for the Sixers’ championship pursuit. There are still valid questions regarding the bench, but Harris clearly moves the needle for Philadelphia. The Celtics, Bucks and Raptors have legitimate competition now.

There are valid concerns regarding Harris’ immediate fit and the likely adjustment period. As fans saw with Butler early in the campaign, it’s difficult to integrate stars mid-season. Integrating multiple stars will provide Brown with a formidable challenge.

Harris shouldn’t pose the same issues as Butler, though. He’s a much cleaner fit, boasting skills that complement every member of the Sixers’ core. When it comes to spot-up shooting, he ranks in the 95th percentile league-wide. Of NBA players averaging more than 20 points, he has the lowest usage rate.

It’s not as though Harris improve the Sixers’ offensive dynamism off the dribble as well. He’s the best pull-up three-point shooter in the NBA this season, per Second Spectrum. at 6-foot-9, he can also punish mismatches in the post or in straight-line drives, with a mid-range game to boost the crunch time offense.

There aren’t many better fits alongside Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler when analyzing star-caliber talents. At 26 years old, he also fits the timeline. Assuming the Sixers can re-sign both Harris and Butler, there’s reason for optimism regarding the team’s long-term outlook.

As the Sixers transition into win-now mode, however, there are overt and undeniable risks. It starts with Harris’ contract situation. He, like Butler, is an unrestricted free agent in the summer. If Philadelphia can’t compete in the playoffs, there’s no guarantee Harris nor Butler stay put.

Some are also viewing Harris as Butler insurance — a better fit and younger player who, if Butler leaves, will keep the Sixers credible in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. No matter how you slice it, there’s inherent risk in trading draft capital for expiring contracts.

The Sixers parted with their 2020 first-round pick and the unprotected Miami 2021 first-round pick, which was acquired in the Mikal Bridges-Zhaire Smith trade. While there 2020 pick projects as nothing more than a late first-rounder, the Miami pick has much less certainly around its position.

Brand also shipped out Landry Shamet, one of the most promising young pieces on the Sixers’ roster. Defense was a concern, but Shamet is shooting 40.4 percent from deep as a rookie. Learning under Redick’s guidance, Shamet appeared to be a viable piece of the Sixers’ future.

The trade puts a serious dent in the Sixers’ asset collection. Even if the Sixers look competitive in the postseason, there’s no guarantee Harris re-signs. Things change rather quickly in the NBA. It’s a lot to trade out given the uncertainty.

There are also questions remaining about the Sixers’ bench. Shamet was the most effective perimeter piece in the second unit. Mike Scott and Boban Marjanovic will add to the frontcourt, but the Sixers’ perimeter depth is rather barren.

The buyout market — Wes Matthews, Wayne Ellington, etc. — has the potential to fill that void. If it doesn’t, however, the Sixers are stuck with T.J. McConnell, Shake Milton and Haywood Highsmith holding things down. If anything, another trade seems necessarily.

It also increaes the importance of Markelle Fultz, for various reasons. If he returns in productive fashion, it releases immense pressure off Brand’s shoulders. If Fultz doesn’t return to form or the Sixers lack confidence, there’s reason to believe Brand might trade him for more immediate help.

Aside from the simple chance Harris (or Butler) leaves in free agency, there are also financial risks involved with retaining both long term. If the Sixers sign Butler and Harris to five-year max contracts, then give Simmons the rookie-scale max next summer, the core four could cost around $130 million.

In 2020-21, the NBA’s projected salary cap is $118. The Sixers will lack flexibility and ownership will be forced to delve deep into their pocketbooks to successfully maintain such an expensive group. If the Sixers can’t spend on a proper bench, the same issues that plague the current group will persist.

The stakes for future drafts are also higher. Given the expected financial committment to the current core, the Sixers will need to add affordable, productive young talent through the draft. The post-Bryan Colangelo track record looks solid with Landry Shamet, but there’s not much to go on regarding Brand’s talent evaluation skills.

Harris, in the simplest terms, brings various potential outcomes. The Sixers could score big, adding the perfect fourth cog to a title-contending core. They could also flounder and fail, losing two core pieces to free agency, giving up Dario Saric, Robert Covington and draft capital for unsuccessful rentals. It also leads to several question marks when projecting toward the future.

With all that said, Brand made the right move. Rarely do teams have the chance to compile arguably four top-30 players. Harris’ fit is as clean as it gets alongside Embiid, Simmons and Butler — a flawed but gifted trio.

The Sixers also added Mike Scott and Boban Marjanovic, two legitimate rotation pieces. Scott can play valuable minutes in the postseason. It’s a risk, but you don’t win titles without risk. Elton Brand, if anything, is clearly not scared.