Austin Krell
I think losing to the Celtics in five games last season is going to help the Sixers this season. I think having the scare in Game 1 against the Nets will help them, as well. They are mature enough and experienced enough to know not to be over-confident and not to underestimate their opponent.
The Toronto Raptors are a very tough team. While they don’t have the scoring guards that the Nets have, they have a very solid stretch-give in Gasol (stretch-fives give Embiid fits on both sides of the floor) and they have size and athleticism at 3-5 to switch nearly everything. The Sixers still have the best player in this series, but it is not at all lopsided like it was against the Nets.
The first priority is limiting Ben Simmons’ turnovers. He averaged 6.3 turnovers per game against the Raptors, who won three of the four contests by an average of 13 points in the regular season. If Ben limits the turnovers, not only is he maximizing the Sixers’ possessions, but he’s also minimizing Toronto’s transition opportunities.
The second priority is going to be air tight help defense in the paint for when Toronto runs the pick-and-pop for Gasol to bring Embiid out to the perimeter. When they draw Embiid out to the perimeter, they effectively open up the paint and create chaos for the Sixers defense. If they have a defender ready to handle cutters or attackers, they will shut down the passing window that Gasol will have on the perimeter and force him into contested jumpers. Hopefully, the damage that Al Horford did last year has prepared Joel Embiid and Brett Brown for this matchup.
The third priority will be perimeter defense. The Sixers have to neutralize Danny Green’s spot-up shooting and be prepared to drive Leonard, Ibaka, and Gasol off the three-point line. Whether this means fully understanding that the defensive concept is fighting through screens or switching, the Sixers cannot leave the Raptors open on the perimeter.
Ultimately, the X-factor for the Raptors will be Kyle Lowry. If he’s effective, the Raptors are going to have quite the advantage in this series. If he’s the same Kyle Lowry of playoffs past, I believe the Sixers become the favorites.
The X-factor for the Sixers is Tobias Harris. The final game of the season series (a game in which the Sixers were embarrassed on their home court) prompted Elton Brand to make the Harris trade. The Raptors have not played the Sixers with Tobias Harris. Their game plan will have to change, and I’m not sure they have the personnel to counter or neutralize every player in the Sixers’ starting lineup.
I have no idea how this series will play out, but I am very confident that if there is a Game 6, the Sixers will win it — whether it is to win the series or force Game 7, I have no clue.
Right now, I have to go with what I know, and I know that the Raptors have better depth than the Sixers do.
Prediction: Raptors in 7