Philadelphia 76ers: Al Horford brings too much risk as Plan B

The Philadelphia 76ers and Al Horford have been connected in the rumor mill, but a potential four-year contract makes little sense.

Most reports indicate the Philadelphia 76ers‘ desire to re-sign both Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris once the June 30 moratorium passes. With Butler planning to take meetings and Harris far from a sure thing, however, the Sixers might end up losing at least one.

The most publicized Plan B in Philadelphia has been Al Horford. Some rumors — and I stress rumors, not reports — have even suggested Horford to the Sixers is a done deal. That Butler will walk, Harris will re-up and Horford will sign a four-year deal in excess of $100 million.

It’s an interesting fit. Horford is one of the NBA’s most underrated players, providing length, versatility and a high basketball I.Q. in the frontcourt. He can space the floor, defend on the perimeter and, on paper, coexist next to Joel Embiid.

More from Free Agency

• Grade the Deal: 76ers match Jazz’s wily offer sheet, keep Paul Reed
• Grade the Deal: 76ers sign free agent Mo Bamba, retain Montrezl Harrell
• Philadelphia 76ers add center depth by signing Mo Bamba
• This stunning free agency slip could doom the 76ers next season
• 5 best remaining free agents the 76ers should target

The Sixers’ interest in Horford is understandable. He’s a legitimate top-25 player at his peak and the Sixers are in win-now mode. If Butler and/or Harris are unattainable and dead-set on walking, splurging on the Horford market makes sense to a certain degree.

Even so, the reported offer on the table — four years, over $100 million — is far too much for Horford. It’s too sizable a risk at age 33, and one the Sixers should strive to avoid.

Right now, the most feasible path to signing Horford seems to revolve around the Sixers lowballing Butler, facilitating a sign-and-trade, then signing Horford. That idea makes very little sense.

The only argument against lowballing Butler — read: not offering a fifth year on his extension — is age. Butler is nearing 30 and has considerable miles on his body after playing under Tom Thibodeau in Chicago and Minnesota. He’s bound to decline rather steeply between now and 2024.

If that’s the case, the argument for signing Horford to a four-year deal is even weaker. Horford is 33 and much bigger, which means lateral quickness and athleticism will inevitably dissipate. He will not age better than Butler.

On the Sixers, Horford would play power forward full-time, stepping into the center spot only when Embiid rests. While there are long-term benefits to staggering Embiid and Horford — it limits minutes for both, allows for more rest days and keeps the Sixers from overusing either one — it’s difficult to trust Horford as a viable starting four in his mid-to-late 30s.

I’m of the firm belief Horford will age well relative to his size. His basketball I.Q. will allow it to happen. He’s too smart not to impact winning, whether it’s his passing, shooting or defensive intelligence. If he loses lateral quickness, though, it’s tough for that impact to happen next to another true center.

The Sixers will look bad if Butler doesn’t receive a five-year offer and proceeds to walk. Elton Brand traded away a valuable asset in Robert Covington, all with the advertised intention to do “whatever it takes” to keep Butler on board. Lowballing him and then overpaying for an older center looks even worse.

There are worse ways for the Sixers to lose Butler. If the end result is a strong sign-and-trade package, Horford and a re-signed Harris, Philadelphia still has more than enough firepower to contend. The East is wide open and Horford remains a supremely good basketball player.

On a positive note, staggering Embiid and Horford does promote fewer minutes and a longer shelf life for both. He’s also a nice fit in Brett Brown’s offense — running dribble-handoffs, popping for threes and exploiting mismatches in the post.

Philadelphia overwhelmed teams with size and physicality last season. Horford and Harris would take that advantage to the extreme, allowing the Sixers to almost universally have a mismatch somewhere on the floor.

At least early in the contract, Horford and Embiid would be a net positive on defense. Horford has shown his perimeter defense chops in recent seasons — his defense on Ben Simmons being a prime example. He can slide his feet, defend stretch fours and survive switches.

Horford’s 3-point percentage dropped from 42.9 to 36.0 last season, but he’s still a good spot-up shooter who bends defenses with his unique combination of size, mobility and passing acumen. He would fit.

In the end, the odds of Horford joining Philadelphia are slim. He reportedly has a massive offer from Sacramento incoming, which may take him off the board early. In that case, the Sixers should have even more determination to re-sign both Butler and Harris.

The Sixers have a clear agenda — one that involves winning basketball games and competing for a title next season. Horford, in the right scenario, helps do that. But his contract would almost certainly age poorly and he should not serve as an excuse to lowball Butler. He’s not that good.

If the Sixers were to end up signing Horford, there would be positives and negatives. If it led to a title next season, the long-term concerns are irrelevant. But weighing the possible outcomes and understanding what needs to happen for Horford to become an option, the Sixers should steer clear.