The Philadelphia 76ers are gambling on size and skill with Al Horford.
A chaotic offseason has left the Philadelphia 76ers with yet another new-look rotation. Jimmy Butler and J.J. Redick are out — the former traded to Miami, the latter signed to New Orleans. Al Horford and Josh Richardson have taken their spots.
The Sixers were one of the biggest teams in the league last season, punishing mismatches and embracing a physical approach on both ends. Through post-ups, dribble handoffs and off-movement actions, Brett Brown strived to give Philadelphia an upper hand on every possession.
Now the Sixers are even bigger. Horford, a true center, will line up next to Joel Embiid. Richardson is the smallest member of the starting five at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan. There’s no longer a weak point for opposing offenses to target, just a whole bunch of size to deal with.
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Horford is perhaps the most intriguing addition. He’s a talented player and perennial All-Star candidate, but investing four years and $109 million in a 33-year-old big man is a bold gamble for Elton Brand and the front office.
Not only does Horford fall outside the core’s timeline, he’s locked up through his age 37 season. He won’t be playing center either. He’ll be asked to spend considerable time defending the perimeter as Embiid’s running mate.
To get the low-down on Horford’s skill set and fit, we asked Andrew Hughes — co-site expert over at Hardwood Houdini — a few questions. Here are his answers.
- Horford has spent time at PF next to Aron Baynes over the past two seasons. Do you view an Embiid-Horford pairing as sustainable over the next four years?
"Al Horford did indeed thrive alongside Aron Baynes the past two seasons, but he also thrived alongside Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk during the 2016-17 season. Horford has the ability to serve most any role in an offense. Those situations may call for him to take advantage of a post defender, be the roll man or shooter in pick-and-roll/pop situations. He will definitely be an asset in the 76ers offense alongside Joel Embiid, being that Horford is one of the best passing centers in the association.For how long that will be for is the question. Horford has missed an average of 12 games over the last three seasons. He will need rest this upcoming season and beyond. If the 76ers are able to do enough load management to preserve him for playoff runs, he will make an impact as long as he continues battling Father Time as gracefully as he has. Four years is a long time to ask for though."
- What is Horford’s most underrated skill?
"Horford’s most underrated skill is undoubtedly his passing. His rebounding is fairly average, having fallen off in recent years. His scoring has mostly hovered in the mid-teens, but Horford’s impact is usually better measured by the eye test and advanced stats.His passing numbers, however, pop off the screen. Horford has averaged 4.5 assists compared to under two turnovers per game during his Celtics career. He was often times the fulcrum that the offense was supported by."
- How do you see Horford’s offense fitting into Philadelphia’s rotation?
"Horford’s offense is a brilliant fit in Philadelphia’s rotation. When he and Embiid share the floor, Horford will find Embiid for some of the easiest assists he has ever had. On the flip side, the double-teams the massive Embiid will likely draw stand to benefit Horford in a profound way.When Embiid is off the floor, Horford can continue to blow past larger, less athletic centers and abuse defenses via dribble hand-offs with Ben Simmons. Either Simmons or Horford stand to score with their combined passing abilities.Horford was a brilliant signing because the 76ers can always have a great center on the floor at all times. Horford’s fit with Simmons is similar to Embiid’s. The two big-men have similar play styles, with Horford’s finesse and Embiid’s physical dominance being the main differences."
- How do you see Horford’s game aging over the next four years — can he be a valuable NBA player at 37?
"Horford’s preservation depends on how Philadelphia manages his work load as he progresses into his mid-30s and luck. A year ago we wouldn’t have been wondering if Kevin Durant would ever be one of the best in the game again, but time and injuries changes a lot.Ideally Horford could manage a lighter workload and continue to live a smart and healthy lifestyle, otherwise the 76ers invested big money for a short-term investment."
To put it simply, the Sixers are swinging for the fences on a unique star who, on paper, will benefit Philadelphia’s other stars. Horford has the shooting and versatility to coexist with Embiid. His pick-and-pop potential is tantalizing next to Ben Simmons. He can run two-man actions with Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson as well.
Horford is true to many of Brett Brown’s core offensive principles. He’s a smart passer, a sturdy screener, a willing ball-mover and someone who punishes smaller defenders when given the opportunity. He can work through dribble handoffs, run post-up offense, pop to the perimeter and do a lot in between. There’s plenty to look forward to.
Age is the most pressing concern. Horford is worth the money now, but there’s a good chance his athleticism begins to seep away in the near future. He’s on contract for the next four seasons. There’s no guarantee Horford is a useful power forward at 37.
Given the Sixers’ desire to contend immediately, however, it’s a worthwhile risk — one that could land Philadelphia atop the Eastern Conference. Kawhi Leonard has left the East wide open. There’s no clear, definitive favorite. The Sixers figure to be in the mix, with Horford playing a big role in their success.
A big thanks to Andrew for taking the time to answer our questions. You can follow him on Twitter and visit our friends over at Hardwood Houdini for great Celtics content.